A Performance-based Approach For Fire Safety Engineering: A Comprehensive Engineering Risk Analysis Methodology, A Computer Model And A Case Study

Fire Safety Science ◽

10.3801/iafss.fss.5-595 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 595-606 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

M. Mathews ◽

D. Karydas ◽

M. Delichatsios

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Computer Model ◽

Fire Safety ◽

Safety Engineering ◽

Fire Safety Engineering ◽

Analysis Methodology ◽

A Performance

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Fire risk analysis with a performance-based fire safety engineering approach and FDS models for underground facilities in Gran Sasso National Laboratories

Risk Analysis IX ◽

10.2495/risk140171 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

M. Tobia ◽

R. Tartaglia ◽

A. Giampaoli ◽

R. Perruzza ◽

G. Farina

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Fire Safety ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Safety Engineering ◽

Fire Risk Analysis ◽

Engineering Approach ◽

Fire Safety Engineering ◽

A Performance

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Uncertainty Modelling in Metamodels for Fire Risk Analysis

Safety ◽

10.3390/safety7030050 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 50

Author(s):

Florian Berchtold ◽

Lukas Arnold ◽

Christian Knaust ◽

Sebastian Thöns

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Fire Safety ◽

Prediction Interval ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Safety Engineering ◽

Road Tunnel ◽

Fire Risk Analysis ◽

Fire Safety Engineering ◽

Metamodel Uncertainty

In risk-related research of fire safety engineering, metamodels are often applied to approximate the results of complex fire and evacuation simulations. This approximation may cause epistemic uncertainties, and the inherent uncertainties of evacuation simulations may lead to aleatory uncertainties. However, neither the epistemic ‘metamodel uncertainty’ nor the aleatory ‘inherent uncertainty’ have been included in the results of the metamodels for fire safety engineering. For this reason, this paper presents a metamodel that includes metamodel uncertainty and inherent uncertainty in the results of a risk analysis. This metamodel is based on moving least squares; the metamodel uncertainty is derived from the prediction interval. The inherent uncertainty is modelled with an original approach, directly using all replications of evacuation scenarios without the assumption of a specific probability distribution. This generic metamodel was applied on a case study risk analysis of a road tunnel and showed high accuracy. It was found that metamodel uncertainty and inherent uncertainty have clear effects on the results of the risk analysis, which makes their consideration important.

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