A Portfolio Balance Model of the Open Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-476
Author(s):  
Rüdiger Dornbusch
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Asset Accumulation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Over Time

This paper develops a framework in which to investigate the effects of macroeconomic policies. The key building blocks are those of Metzler (1968, 1973) in the form of a wealth saving relation and the emphasis on portfolio considerations; the model in its dynamic aspects is extended in a manner suggested in the work of Foley/Sidrauski (1971) and Mussa (1973), where the asset accumulation implied by short-run equilibrium is pursued over time.

scholarly journals Stabilization Policy in an Economy with Two Exchange Rate Regimes

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 1850261
Author(s):  
Sven W. Arndt
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
Chinese Intervention ◽  
The U.S

This paper uses a flex-price open economy macro model to examine the effectiveness of U.S. monetary and fiscal policies when the dollar floats freely against the euro, but is fixed against the Chinese yuan. It is assumed that capital mobility is high between the U.S. and the Eurozone, but low between the U.S. and China. The model allows for short-run price flexibility and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign financial assets. The focus is on the implications for the efficacy of U.S. macro stabilization policies of China's fixed-rate strategy. While many countries have pegged their currencies to the dollar, China is large enough to have an impact. It is shown that its large size enables China to impede the effectiveness of U.S. macroeconomic policies. Indeed, while the U.S. is officially tagged as an independent floater, Chinese intervention is capable of interfering with dollar-euro flexibility and thereby creates outcomes that are more consistent with policy under fixed rates.

Emotional Variability Predicts Tiredness in Daily Life

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aire Mill ◽  
Anu Realo ◽  
Jüri Allik
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Method ◽  
Daily Life ◽  
Emotional Experience ◽  
Experience Sampling ◽  
Experience Sampling Method ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Intraindividual Variability ◽  
Unique Role ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Intraindividual variability, along with the more frequently studied between-person variability, has been argued to be one of the basic building blocks of emotional experience. The aim of the current study is to examine whether intraindividual variability in affect predicts tiredness in daily life. Intraindividual variability in affect was studied with the experience sampling method in a group of 110 participants (aged between 19 and 84 years) during 14 consecutive days on seven randomly determined occasions per day. The results suggest that affect variability is a stable construct over time and situations. Our findings also demonstrate that intraindividual variability in affect has a unique role in predicting increased levels of tiredness at the momentary level as well at the level of individuals.

The dynamic nature of depression: a new micro-level perspective of mental disorder that meets current challenges

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (7) ◽  
pp. 1349-1360 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wichers
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Network ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Major Depressive ◽  
Dynamic Network Model ◽  
Healthy State ◽  
Behavioural Patterns ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Continuous Dynamic ◽  
Dynamic Interplay ◽  
Over Time

The examination of moment-to-moment, ‘micro-level’ patterns of experience and behaviour using experience sampling methodology has contributed to our understanding of the ‘macro-level’ development of full-blown symptoms and disorders. This paper argues that the micro-level perspective can be used to identify the smallest building blocks underlying the onset and course of mental ill-health. Psychopathology may be the result of the continuous dynamic interplay between micro-level moment-to-moment experiences and behavioural patterns over time. Reinforcing loops between momentary states may alter the course of mental health towards either a more or less healthy state. An example with observed data, from a population of individuals with depressive symptoms, supports the validity of a dynamic network model of psychopathology and shows that together and over time, this continuous interplay between momentary states may result in the cluster of symptoms we call major depressive disorder. This approach may help conceptualize the nature of mental disorders, and generate individualized insights useful for diagnosis and treatment in psychiatry.

Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Systems: New Tools for Cross-Lagged Panel Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 109442812199322
Author(s):  
Ali Shamsollahi ◽  
Michael J. Zyphur ◽  
Ozlem Ozkok
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Simulated Dataset ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Panel Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Over Time

Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are common, but their applications often focus on “short-run” effects among temporally proximal observations. This addresses questions about how dynamic systems may immediately respond to interventions, but fails to show how systems evolve over longer timeframes. We explore three types of “long-run” effects in dynamic systems that extend recent work on “impulse responses,” which reflect potential long-run effects of one-time interventions. Going beyond these, we first treat evaluations of system (in)stability by testing for “permanent effects,” which are important because in unstable systems even a one-time intervention may have enduring effects. Second, we explore classic econometric long-run effects that show how dynamic systems may respond to interventions that are sustained over time. Third, we treat “accumulated responses” to model how systems may respond to repeated interventions over time. We illustrate tests of each long-run effect in a simulated dataset and we provide all materials online including user-friendly R code that automates estimating, testing, reporting, and plotting all effects (see https://doi.org/10.26188/13506861 ). We conclude by emphasizing the value of aligning specific longitudinal hypotheses with quantitative methods.

scholarly journals BESTest for Integrated Outdoor-Indoor Energy Balance Modelling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Bakkali ◽  
Yasunobu Ashie
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Energy Simulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Heat Islands ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
The Impact

In our growing cities, climate change and energy related uncertainties are of great concern. The impact of the Urban Heat Island on comfort, health and the way we use energy still requires further clarification. The outdoor-indoor energy balance model (3D-City Irradiance) presented in this article was developed so as to address these issues. The effects of view factors between urban surfaces on three-dimensional radiation and the effects of fully integrated outdoor-indoor energy balance schemes on heat islands and building indoor thermal loads could be included within different building blocks at a resolution of several metres. The model operated under the ‘stand alone’ mode. It was tested using the Building Energy Simulation Test (BESTest) which demonstrated good levels of agreement for diurnal and seasonal simulations.

scholarly journals Cross-Correlations in Meat Prices in Brazil: A Non-Linear Approach Using Different Time Scales

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Derick Quintino ◽  
José Telo da Gama ◽  
Paulo Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Linear Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Different Time Scales

Brazil is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of cattle, chicken and swine. Therefore, co-movements of Brazilian meat prices are important for both domestic and foreign stakeholders. We propose to analyse the cross-correlation between meat prices in Brazil, namely, cattle, swine and chicken, including also in the analysis information from some commodities, namely maize, soya beans, oil, and the Brazilian exchange rate. Our sample covers the recent period which coincided with extensive macroeconomic and institutional changes in Brazil, from 2011 to 2020, and is divided in two periods: (i) presidential pre-impeachment (P1), occurring in August 2016, and; (ii) post-impeachment (P2). Our results indicate that in P1, only the prices of swine and chicken showed a positive and strong correlation over time, and that cattle showed some positive correlation with chicken only in the short run. In P2, there was also a positive and consistent correlation between swine and chicken, and only a positive association with swine and cattle in the long run. For more spaced time scales (days), the changes in the degree of correlation were significant only in the long run for swine and cattle.

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