scholarly journals Causal selection – the linguistic take

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Elitzur Avraham Bar-Asher Siegal ◽  
Noa Bassel ◽  
York Hagmayer

Causal Selection is a widely discussed topic in philosophy and the cognitive sciences, concerned with characterizing the choice of "the cause" among the many individually necessary and jointly sufficient conditions on which any effect depends on. In this paper, we argue for an additional selection process underlying causal statements: Causative-Construction Selection, which pertains to the choice of linguistic constructions used to express causal relations. By exploring this phenomenon, we aim to answer the following question: given that a speaker wishes to describe the relation between one of the conditions and the effect, which linguistic constructions are available? We take CC-selection to be more crucial than causal selection, since the latter is in fact restricted by the linguistic options resulting from the former. Based on a series of experiments, we demonstrate that factors taken previously as contributing to causal selection should, in fact, be considered as the parameters that license the various linguistic constructions under given circumstances, based on previous knowledge about the causal structure of the world (the causal model). These factors are therefore part of the meaning of the causative expressions.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadat Reza ◽  
Puneet Manchanda ◽  
Juin-Kuan Chong

There has been a considerable amount of interest in the empirical investigation of social influence in the marketing and economics literature in the last decade or so. Among the many different empirical models applied for such investigations, the most common class of model is the linear-in-means model. These models can be used to examine whether social influence is truly a result of agents affecting each other through their choices simultaneously (endogenous effect) or of having similar taste and characteristics (homophily). However, the two effects are not separately identified in general in the standard linear-in-means model unless data on all members of an individual’s network are available. With data on a sample of individuals from a network, these effects are not identified. In this research, we leverage a very natural aspect of social settings, namely that consumers are usually part of multiple—as opposed to single—networks. We discuss the sufficient conditions for identification when the standard linear-in-means model is extended to allow for multiple sources of social influence. We also show how the additional variation generated by more than one source of social influence actually allows estimation of endogenous effects with sample data. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach via simulation and on the National Longitudinal Study on Adolescent Health data, which has been used in a number of studies examining social influence. Our approach is, therefore, likely to be useful in typical marketing settings. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Heinze-Deml ◽  
Jonas Peters ◽  
Nicolai Meinshausen

AbstractAn important problem in many domains is to predict how a system will respond to interventions. This task is inherently linked to estimating the system’s underlying causal structure. To this end, Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) [1] has been proposed which learns a causal model exploiting the invariance of causal relations using data from different environments. When considering linear models, the implementation of ICP is relatively straightforward. However, the nonlinear case is more challenging due to the difficulty of performing nonparametric tests for conditional independence.In this work, we present and evaluate an array of methods for nonlinear and nonparametric versions of ICP for learning the causal parents of given target variables. We find that an approach which first fits a nonlinear model with data pooled over all environments and then tests for differences between the residual distributions across environments is quite robust across a large variety of simulation settings. We call this procedure “invariant residual distribution test”. In general, we observe that the performance of all approaches is critically dependent on the true (unknown) causal structure and it becomes challenging to achieve high power if the parental set includes more than two variables.As a real-world example, we consider fertility rate modeling which is central to world population projections. We explore predicting the effect of hypothetical interventions using the accepted models from nonlinear ICP. The results reaffirm the previously observed central causal role of child mortality rates.


2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 593-609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubens Penha Cysne

The literature on the welfare costs of inflation universally assumes that the many-person household can be treated as a single economic agent. This paper explores what the heterogeneity of the agents in a household might imply for such welfare analyses. First, we show that allowing for a one-person or for a many-person transacting technology impacts the money demand function and, therefore, the welfare costs of inflation. Second, more importantly, we derive sufficient conditions under which welfare assessments which depart directly from the knowledge of the money demand function (as in Lucas, 2000) are robust (invariant) under the number of persons considered in the household. Third, we show that Bailey’s (1956) partial-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of inflation can be obtained as a first-order approximation of the general-equilibrium welfare measure derived in this paper using a many-person transacting technology.


1939 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. G. MacNay

In view of the known lack of effectiveness and doubtful value of many of the materials cited in literature as being of value as repellents for biting flies, a series of experiments was carried out at the direction of the Dominion Entomologist, during the past three seasons, with the object of determining which of the many materials recommended as repellents might be the most effective and which the most lasting in effect.


2012 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
LESLIE TOMORY

AbstractGaslight emerged as a new industry after 1800 in Britain, but not in other countries in Europe where the technology existed as well. Among the many groups trying, it was only the firm of Boulton & Watt that succeeded in commercializing the invention for two important reasons. The first was that they possessed skills and experience related to ironworking and to making scientific instruments, both of which they used as they developed gaslight apparatus. This development involved an extensive series of experiments that ultimately had its root in James Watt's own work with pneumatic chemistry. The second reason was that they possessed many resources such as access to capital, their existing network of industrial customers, and their abilities to publicize their work. As with the steam engine, the firm proved adept at advertising. Boulton & Watt did not give their full attention to gaslight except in two spurts between 1805 and 1809, and by around 1812 they had lost almost all interest in the technology. By this time, however, they had solved many problems associated with scaling up gaslight apparatus for industrial use, they had trained many people who would go on to do further important work in the early years of the industry, and they had drawn extensive public attention to the new invention. Finally, their advertising involved elevating the status of William Murdoch as an inventor while minimizing the role of the firm.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elie Wolfe ◽  
Robert W. Spekkens ◽  
Tobias Fritz

AbstractThe problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce the inflation technique for tackling this problem. An inflation of a causal structure is a new causal structure that can contain multiple copies of each of the original variables, but where the ancestry of each copy mirrors that of the original. To every distribution of the observed variables that is compatible with the original causal structure, we assign a family of marginal distributions on certain subsets of the copies that are compatible with the inflated causal structure. It follows that compatibility constraints for the inflation can be translated into compatibility constraints for the original causal structure. Even if the constraints at the level of inflation are weak, such as observable statistical independences implied by disjoint causal ancestry, the translated constraints can be strong. We apply this method to derive new inequalities whose violation by a distribution witnesses that distribution’s incompatibility with the causal structure (of which Bell inequalities and Pearl’s instrumental inequality are prominent examples). We describe an algorithm for deriving all such inequalities for the original causal structure that follow from ancestral independences in the inflation. For three observed binary variables with pairwise common causes, it yields inequalities that are stronger in at least some aspects than those obtainable by existing methods. We also describe an algorithm that derives a weaker set of inequalities but is more efficient. Finally, we discuss which inflations are such that the inequalities one obtains from them remain valid even for quantum (and post-quantum) generalizations of the notion of a causal model.


The author, after adverting to the many abortive endeavours of former experimentalists to obtain instruments for the accurate ad-measurement of high temperatures, and after suggesting doubts as to the confidence to which Wedgwood’s pyrometer is entitled, describes several attempts of his own to effect this very desirable object. In the course of his inquiries, a remarkable fact presented itself to his notice in the change which occurred in an index constructed on the compensation principle, and formed by two slips of metal, the one of silver and the other of gold, originally quite pure, and united without any alloy. In the course of a few years, although it had never been subjected to a heat above that of melting lead, the whole surface of the gold became converted into an alloy of silver, the impregnation extending gradually to a considerable depth in the gold, and destroying the sensibility of the instrument to changes of temperature. After trying various plans, he gave the preference to one founded on the following principles: namely, that the fusing points of the pure metals are fixed and determined; that those of the three noble metals, namely, silver, gold, and platina, comprehend a very extensive range of temperature; and that between these three fixed points in the scale, as many intermediate ones as may be required may be obtained by alloying the three metals together in different proportions. When such a series of alloys has been once prepared, the heat of any furnace may be expressed by the alloy of least fusibility which it is capable of melting. The determinations afforded by a pyrometer of this kind will, independently of their precision, have the advantage of being identifiable at all times and in all countries: the smallness of the apparatus is an additional recommendation, nothing more being necessary than a little cupel, containing in separate cells the requisite number of pyrometric alloys, each of the size of a pin’s head. The specimens melted in one experiment need only to be flattened under the hammer in order to be again ready for use. For the purpose of concisely registering the results, the author employs a simple decimal method of notation, which at once expresses the nature of the alloy, and its correspondence with the scale of temperature. Thus G. 23 P would denote an alloy of gold with 23 per cent. of platina. As the distance between the points of fusion of silver and of gold is not considerable, the author divides this distance on the scale into ten degrees; obtaining measures of each by a successive addition of 10 per cent. of gold to the silver, the fusion of which, when pure, marks the point of zero; while that of gold is reckoned at ten degrees. If minuter subdivisions were required for particular objects of research, these might easily be made, following always the decimal series. From the point of fusion of pure gold to that of pure platina, the author assumes 100 degrees, adding to the alloy which is to measure each in succession 1 per cent. of platina. Whether these hypothetical degrees represent equable increments of temperature is a question foreign to the purpose of this paper, and must be the subject of future investigation. The author then enters into a detailed account of the method he employed for insuring accuracy in the formation of the requisite series of alloys, and of various experiments undertaken to ascertain their fitness as measures of high temperatures. The determinations of the heats of the different furnaces adapted to particular objects, are given in a tabular form. The remaining portion of the paper contains the recital of the author’s attempts to determine by means of an apparatus connected with an air thermometer, the relation which the fusing point of pure silver bears to the ordinary thermometric scale. An extensive series of experiments, of which the results are given in a table, were made with this apparatus. From the data thus afforded, after making the necessary corrections, the author deduces the following results in degrees of Fahrenheit: viz. A full red heat 1200°; orange heat 1650°; melting point of silver (which had been estimated by Wedgewood at 4717°, and by Daniell at 2233°,) 1830°; of silver alloyed with one tenth gold 1920°. The paper is accompanied with drawings of the apparatus employed.


1965 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-392
Author(s):  
J. P. Bowland ◽  
R. Braude ◽  
J. G. Rowell

This note describes the results of various analyses which were carried out to study relations between measurements indicative of the amount of fat and lean in the carcasses of bacon pigs and their weaning weights, rates of gain between weaning and slaughter, and the lengths of the carcasses. The data involved were taken from a series of experiments, the original purpose of which was to compare various feeding treatments used between weaning and slaughter (205 lb.). The interpretation of these analyses presents some difficulty because of the many ways in which variations in weaning weight, for example, may occur; such variations arise naturally (because of variations in genotype, mothering ability of the sow, etc.) or may be induced by changing methods of management (systems of feeding, housing conditions, etc.). Considerable caution should therefore be exercised in attempting to extend the relations discussed here to conditions outside their own context. The difficulties are emphasised by the variety of different results which other workers have reported on the effect of weaning weight on subsequent development (reviewed by Braude, 1964).


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-235
Author(s):  
Juju Saepudin

AbstractThe educator's producer institution is required to improve quality to be able to produce great graduates. This paper presents the research results on the readiness of the educator's producer institution at Raden Intan State Islamic Institute in preparing professional teacher candidates through the Pre-service Professional Teacher training program. This study uses a qualitative approach, using observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation studies. The inductive data analysis results obtained several conclusions: First, based on accreditation status, academic position, education level, and the ratio of lecturers and students, only three study programs have met the criteria. Second, the program for improving and developing instructional activities, partnership networks, and quality assurance has been running effectively. Third, the high interest of prospective students entering the Faculty of Tarbiyah and Teacher Training IAIN Raden Intan Lampung supports preparing professional educators. Meanwhile, the student selection process that puts aside the exploration of interests and talents and applied competencies, the limitations and lack of infrastructure, and the weak socialization of policies related to Pre-service PPG are part of the many inhibiting factors LPTKs in preparing prospective professional educators.AbstrakLembaga Pendidikan Tenaga Kependidikan (LPTK) sebagai lembaga pencetak guru dituntut untuk meningkatkan kualitas program studinya agar mampu menghasilkan lulusan yang berkualitas. Tulisan ini menyajikan hasil penelitian tentang kesiapan LPTK Institut Agama Islam Negeri (IAIN) Raden Intan Lampung dalam menyiapkan calon guru profesional melalui program Pendidikan Profesi Guru (PPG) Prajabatan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kualitatif dengan metode pengumpulan data observasi, wawancara mendalam dan studi dokumentasi. Hasil analisa data secara induktif didapatkan beberapa kesimpulan sebagai berikut: Pertama, berdasarkan status akreditasi, jabatan akademik, jenjang pendidikan serta rasio dosen dan mahasiswa hanya tiga program studi yang sudah memenuhi kriteria. Kedua, program peningkatan dan pengembangan aktivitas instruksional, jaringan kemitraan dan penjaminan mutu sudah berjalan dengan efektif. Ketiga, tingginya minat calon mahasiswa memasuki Fakultas Tarbiyah dan Keguruan (FTK) IAIN Raden Intan Lampung merupakan faktor pendukung sekaligus modal awal bagi LPTK dalam menyiapkan pendidik yang professional. Sedangkan, proses penjaringan mahasiswa yang mengesampingkan penggalian minat dan bakat serta kompetensi terapan, keterbatasan dan ketiadaan sarana prasarana serta lemahnya sosialisasi kebijakan terkait PPG Prajabatan menjadi bagian dari sekian banyak faktor penghambat LPTK dalam menyiapkan calon pendidik profesional. 


Author(s):  
L-F Pau ◽  
P. Simonsen

Warnings to the broad population in an emergency situation, irrespective of location and condition, are a public policy responsibility. Public wireless networks offer now the opportunity to deliver emergency warnings in this way with explanations, because in many countries, the mobile penetration rates and coverage are higher than any other access form. This chapter summarizes the analysis of the selection process between short messaging services (SMS) and Cell Broadcast (CB) messaging in the context of Denmark based on end user requirements, stakeholder roles and case-based analysis. It demonstrates the many technical, cost-benefit, and other trade-offs needed in supporting the population now with a dependable and wide-spread technology. This research is the basis for a national policy.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document