The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade in Turkey:A Cointegration Analysis (Aslı Yenipazarlı] [Arif Aral])

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
The Relationship

Financial Marketing-Based Role of Exchange Rate to Increase Foreign Trade in Turkey

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Özgür Kiyak ◽  
Bilge Afşar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Decrease Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Relationship

This chapter tries to determine whether there is a causal relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. The study includes monthly data between February 2003 and December 2018 including dollar foreign exchange selling rate and inflation related real exchange rate for exchange rate, and export amount, import amount, export increase/decrease rate, and import increase. Increase/decrease rate is used for foreign trade among other variables, for a total of 6 variables. According to the obtained results of Engle-Granger cointegration analysis, there is a cointegration between variables in the long run. However, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis, it was understood that there is no causality relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade.

scholarly journals THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Adubofour Isaac
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inverse Association ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The degree of fluctuation of a country’s currency in relation to other currencies is an important factor in determining her foreign trade position. The study employed both theoretical and empirical approaches to examine Ghana’s real exchange rate and the impact on her foreign trade. A time series data, spanning from 1991 to 2019 was analyzed in an attempt to establish the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth. It is argued in the study that exchange rate has impact on a country’s export volumes. A verification on the relationship between labour force and international trade was also conducted. The study was also extended to examining the impact of a country’s access to stable electric power on export volumes. Findings of the study revealed a statistically significant and inverse association existing between exchange rate and international trade. The study also found that, wide electricity coverage has statistically significant and direct effect on foreign trade, resulting from an increased production capacity due to the availability of electric power. The study however found no suggestive evidence to support the claim that, labour force has impact on her foreign trade. A test on granger causality found no causal linkage between the variables. KEYWORDS: Exchange rate, international trade, labour force, exports.

The Effect of Exchange Rates on Trade Balance: An Empirical Study of Morocco

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-10
Author(s):  
Hicham Sadok
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Relationship

Objective - This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rates and trade balance in Morocco, to investigate whether the Marshall-Lerner condition and J-curve exist. Methodology/Technique - This paper attempts to identify the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in Morocco between 2000 an 2015. Findings - Historically, exchange rates have had a strong impact on foreign trade in Morocco. Novelty - This study concludes that the fluctuation of exchange rates has no notable impact on the rate of foreign trade. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: Exchange Rates; Trade Balance; Exports; Imports; Morocco. JEL Classification: D51, D59.

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis About The Relationship Between Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate in Turkish Economy

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilal Kargi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Trade Data ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, the relationship between the foreign trade data and the exchange rate is tested using the monthly data for the period of 1992:01-2014:01 in Turkish Economy. The devaluation of local currency is expected to increase export while decreasing import rates, thus it will close the foreign trade deficit, theoretically. However, this effect is observed in varying degrees in the on both short and long terms. One of the most fundamental problems of the Turkish Economy is the foreign trade deficit, beside the Turkish Lira is a quite frequently fluctuating currency. The relationship between the foreign trade data and the exchange rate is an important topic to examine when the dependence of export to import is especially considered. In this study, the longterm relation between these two main variables and their causality are examined as using the time series analysis. Therefore, the tested hypothesis will be „there is a long term relationship between the exchange rate and the foreign trade in Turkish Economy“. It is was empirically observed that this hypothesis is correct as a result of the tests. It is also observed that there is Granger causality from the exchange rate to the exports, imports and net foreign trade in addition to the fact that the long term relationship exists between the foreign trade and the rate of exchange.

scholarly journals Modelling the rand and commodity prices: A Granger causality and cointegration analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xolani Ndlovu ◽  
Eric Schaling ◽  
Paul Alagidede
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

This paper examines the ‘commodity currency’ hypothesis of the Rand, that is, the postulate that the currency moves in line with commodity prices, and analyses the associated causality using nominal data between 1996 and 2010. We address both the short run and long run relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates. We find that while the levels of the series of both assets are difference stationary, they are not cointegrated. Further, we find the two variables are negatively related, with strong and significant causality running from commodity prices to the exchange rate and not vice versa, implying exogeneity in the determination of commodity prices with respect to the nominal exchange rate. The strength of the relationship is significantly weaker than other OECD commodity currencies. We surmise that the relationship is dynamic over time owing to the portfolio-rebalance argument and the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTT) effect and, in the absence of an error correction mechanism, this disconnect may be prolonged. For commodity and currency market participants, this implies that while futures and forward commodity prices may be useful leading indicators of future currency movements, the price risk management strategies may need to be recalibrated over time.

scholarly journals Oil prices and the US effective exchange rate: A hidden cointegration analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Rafailidis ◽  
Constantinos Katrakilidis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractWe investigate the long-run relationship between the US Dollar effective exchange and the oil prices (wti) over the period from January 1986 to August 2014. We allow for the relationship to be nonlinear by employing the hidden cointegration technique of Granger and Yoon (2002) and Schorderet (2004). The Quandt – Andrews approach allows accounting for structural breaks. The results reveal a long-run relationship between the two markets.

The Nexus between Financial Development and Human Development: The Case of Developing Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 68
Author(s):  
Bilgehan Tekin
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Development Levels ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study to examine the relationship between financial development and human development in the health and welfare dimensions of developing countries. This study aims to determine whether the financial developments of the countries have an effect on the basic human development of the individuals and whether human development indicators have an impact on financial development. In this study, the relationship between financial development and human development has been tried to be revealed by using data obtained from developing countries. Financial development levels of the countries were measured with the developed financial development index. The index is calculated by using M3 / GDP, private sector loans / GDP and loans to banks from private sector / GDP ratios. The human development index is calculated by considering various health indicators and GNP per capita. The data includes annual data for the period 1970-2016. Pedroni and Kao cointegration analysis and Dumitrescu & Hurlin panel causality analysis were performed in the study. According to the results of the study, the cointegration relationship was determined between the two variables. There is also a two-way causality between the variables.

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