Surface lakes on Greenland will spread further inland as the climate warms

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amber A. Leeson
Keyword(s):  
Thin Film ◽  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Supraglacial Lakes ◽  
South West ◽  
Excess Water ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Global Sea Level

Each summer, a rash of lakes forms from ponded meltwater on top of the Greenland ice sheet. These 'supraglacial' (on top of ice) lakes can drain through the ice sheet, delivering their contents to its base. The ice sheet slides on a thin film of water, and when extra water is added to this film (for example from a draining supraglacial lake) the sliding (‘flow’) happens a bit faster. At present, under-ice pipe-like features enable excess water to drain out from under the ice sheet quickly and efficiently. However, in recent years supraglacial lakes have begun to form further inland, potentially supplying water to the base beyond the reach of these features. Here, we use a computer simulation of lake initiation and growth to show that the inland spread of supraglacial lakes will continue as the climate warms; by 2060, 100% more of South West Greenland and 50% more of the whole ice sheet will be populated by supraglacial lakes. Of these ‘new’ lakes, up to half will be large enough to drain, delivering the water they contain to the base of the ice sheet and all of these new lakes will form at locations where we would expect to see an ice sheet speed-up with the addition of more water at the base. If the ice sheet flows faster, it can thin out and melt quicker, thus contributing to global sea level rise. Supraglacial lakes and their impacts are not currently considered in our best predictions of future ice sheet change. Given that they possess significant leverage to affect ice sheet flow, and that they are likely to form (and drain) at locations more sensitive to their impact in future years, it is clear that they need to be accounted for in these predictions as a matter of priority.

scholarly journals Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial period: a modelling study driven and constrained by ice core data

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 353-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Quiquet ◽  
C. Ritz ◽  
H. J. Punge ◽  
D. Salas y Mélia
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Orbital Configuration ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. As pointed out by the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC-AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007), the contribution of the two major ice sheets, Antarctica and Greenland, to global sea level rise, is a subject of key importance for the scientific community. By the end of the next century, a 3–5 °C warming is expected in Greenland. Similar temperatures in this region were reached during the last interglacial (LIG) period, 130–115 ka BP, due to a change in orbital configuration rather than to an anthropogenic forcing. Ice core evidence suggests that the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) survived this warm period, but great uncertainties remain about the total Greenland ice reduction during the LIG. Here we perform long-term simulations of the GIS using an improved ice sheet model. Both the methodologies chosen to reconstruct palaeoclimate and to calibrate the model are strongly based on proxy data. We suggest a relatively low contribution to LIG sea level rise from Greenland melting, ranging from 0.7 to 1.5 m of sea level equivalent, contrasting with previous studies. Our results suggest an important contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to the LIG highstand.

Greenland ice sheet hydrology

2013 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vena W. Chu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Water Hydrology ◽  
Basal Sliding ◽  
Hydrologic System ◽  
Global Sea Level

Understanding Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) hydrology is essential for evaluating response of ice dynamics to a warming climate and future contributions to global sea level rise. Recently observed increases in temperature and melt extent over the GrIS have prompted numerous remote sensing, modeling, and field studies gauging the response of the ice sheet and outlet glaciers to increasing meltwater input, providing a quickly growing body of literature describing seasonal and annual development of the GrIS hydrologic system. This system is characterized by supraglacial streams and lakes that drain through moulins, providing an influx of meltwater into englacial and subglacial environments that increases basal sliding speeds of outlet glaciers in the short term. However, englacial and subglacial drainage systems may adjust to efficiently drain increased meltwater without significant changes to ice dynamics over seasonal and annual scales. Both proglacial rivers originating from land-terminating glaciers and subglacial conduits under marine-terminating glaciers represent direct meltwater outputs in the form of fjord sediment plumes, visible in remotely sensed imagery. This review provides the current state of knowledge on GrIS surface water hydrology, following ice sheet surface meltwater production and transport via supra-, en-, sub-, and proglacial processes to final meltwater export to the ocean. With continued efforts targeting both process-level and systems analysis of the hydrologic system, the larger picture of how future changes in Greenland hydrology will affect ice sheet glacier dynamics and ultimately global sea level rise can be advanced.

scholarly journals Extraordinary runoff from the Greenland ice sheet in 2012 amplified by hypsometry and depleted firn retention

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1147-1159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Bech Mikkelsen ◽  
Alun Hubbard ◽  
Mike MacFerrin ◽  
Jason Eric Box ◽  
Sam H. Doyle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Impermeable Barrier ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Percolation Zone

Abstract. It has been argued that the infiltration and retention of meltwater within firn across the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet has the potential to buffer up to  ∼  3.6 mm of global sea-level rise (Harper et al., 2012). Despite evidence confirming active refreezing processes above the equilibrium line, their impact on runoff and proglacial discharge has yet to be assessed. Here, we compare meteorological, melt, firn stratigraphy and discharge data from the extreme 2010 and 2012 summers to determine the relationship between atmospheric forcing and melt runoff at the land-terminating Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet, which drains into the Watson River. The 6.8 km3 bulk discharge in 2012 exceeded that in 2010 by 28 %, despite only a 3 % difference in net incoming melt energy between the two years. This large disparity can be explained by a 10 % contribution of runoff originating from above the long-term equilibrium line in 2012 caused by diminished firn retention. The amplified 2012 response was compounded by catchment hypsometry; the disproportionate increase in area contributing to runoff as the melt-level rose high into the accumulation area.Satellite imagery and aerial photographs reveal an extensive supraglacial network extending 140 km from the ice margin that confirms active meltwater runoff originating well above the equilibrium line. This runoff culminated in three days with record discharge of 3100 m3 s−1 (0.27 Gt d−1) that peaked on 11 July and washed out the Watson River Bridge. Our findings corroborate melt infiltration processes in the percolation zone, though the resulting patterns of refreezing are complex and can lead to spatially extensive, perched superimposed ice layers within the firn. In 2012, such layers extended to an elevation of at least 1840 m and provided a semi-impermeable barrier to further meltwater storage, thereby promoting widespread runoff from the accumulation area of the Greenland ice sheet that contributed directly to proglacial discharge and global sea-level rise.

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Global Sea Level

<p>In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. <strong>Since the early 1990’s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance.  </strong>Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.</p>

scholarly journals Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 953-976
Author(s):  
Jonas Van Breedam ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The emphasis for informing policy makers on future sea-level rise has been on projections by the end of the 21st century. However, due to the long lifetime of atmospheric CO2, the thermal inertia of the climate system and the slow equilibration of the ice sheets, global sea level will continue to rise on a multi-millennial timescale even when anthropogenic CO2 emissions cease completely during the coming decades to centuries. Here we present global sea-level change projections due to the melting of land ice combined with steric sea effects during the next 10 000 years calculated in a fully interactive way with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIMv1.3. The greenhouse forcing is based on the Extended Concentration Pathways defined until 2300 CE with no carbon dioxide emissions thereafter, equivalent to a cumulative CO2 release of between 460 and 5300 GtC. We performed one additional experiment for the highest-forcing scenario with the inclusion of a methane emission feedback where methane is slowly released due to a strong increase in surface and oceanic temperatures. After 10 000 years, the sea-level change rate drops below 0.05 m per century and a semi-equilibrated state is reached. The Greenland ice sheet is found to nearly disappear for all forcing scenarios. The Antarctic ice sheet contributes only about 1.6 m to sea level for the lowest forcing scenario with a limited retreat of the grounding line in West Antarctica. For the higher-forcing scenarios, the marine basins of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet also become ice free, resulting in a sea-level rise of up to 27 m. The global mean sea-level change after 10 000 years ranges from 9.2 to more than 37 m. For the highest-forcing scenario, the model uncertainty does not exclude the complete melting of the Antarctic ice sheet during the next 10 000 years.

scholarly journals The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 1: Projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 1015-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Quiquet ◽  
Christophe Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe, making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increased mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single-source contribution after the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (ISMIP6). While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE (Grenoble Ice Sheet and Land Ice model of the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can thus be from as low as 20 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) to as high as 160 mm SLE. Amongst the models tested in ISMIP6, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) models produce larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low-emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mm SLE in 2100 in our simulations. In addition, the dynamical contribution to ice thickness change is small compared to the impact of surface mass balance. This suggests that mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin. With additional sensitivity experiments we also show that the spread in mass loss is only weakly affected by the choice of the ice sheet model mechanical parameters.

scholarly journals Automatic Extraction of Supraglacial Lakes in Southwest Greenland during the 2014–2018 Melt Seasons Based on Convolutional Neural Network

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 891
Author(s):  
Jiawei Yuan ◽  
Zhaohui Chi ◽  
Xiao Cheng ◽  
Tao Zhang ◽  
Tian Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Supraglacial Lakes ◽  
Spatial Features ◽  
Hydrological System ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Southwest Greenland

The mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has implications for global sea level rise, and surface meltwater is an important factor that affects the mass balance. Supraglacial lakes (SGLs), which are representative and identifiable hydrologic features of surface meltwater on GrIS, are a means of assessing surface ablation temporally and spatially. In this study, we have developed a robust method to automatically extract SGLs by testing the widely distributed SGLs area—in southwest Greenland (68°00′ N–70°00′ N, 48°00′ W–51°30′ W), and documented their dynamics from 2014 to 2018 using Landsat 8 OLI images. This method identifies water using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and then extracts SGLs with morphological and geometrical algorithms. CNN combines spectral and spatial features and shows better water identification results than the widely used adaptive thresholding method (Otsu), and two machine learning methods (Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM)). Our results show that the total SGLs area varied between 158 and 393 km2 during 2014 to 2018; the area increased from 2014 to 2015, then decreased and reached the lowest point (158.73 km2) in 2018, when the most limited surface melting was observed. SGLs were most active during the melt season in 2015 with a quantity of 700 and a total area of 393.36 km2. The largest individual lake developed in 2016, with an area of 9.30 km2. As for the elevation, SGLs were most active in the area, with the elevation ranging from 1000 to 1500 m above sea level, and SGLs in 2016 were distributed at higher elevations than in other years. Our work proposes a method to extract SGLs accurately and efficiently. More importantly, this study is expected to provide data support to other studies monitoring the surface hydrological system and mass balance of the GrIS.

The 4DGreenland project: Greenland hydrology assessment from remote sensing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Sandberg Sørensen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Space Agency ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
Supraglacial Lakes ◽  
Space Agency ◽  
Subglacial Lakes ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Response To Temperature

<p>The high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced the largest regional warming over the last decades. On the Greenland ice sheet, rapid changes are observed in response to temperature increase, with the amount of liquid water at the surface particularly increasing. Understanding Greenland’s ice sheet hydrology is essential to assess  its contribution to global sea-level rise in a future warming climate.</p><p>With the objective of maximizing the use of Earth Observation (EO) data, the European Space Agency (ESA) has funded the 2-year project 4DGreenland (https://4dgreenland.eo4cryo.dk/) to assess and quantify the hydrology of the Greenland ice sheet. The project is focused on dynamic variations in the hydrological components of the ice sheet, and on quantifying the water fluxes between reservoirs including surface melt, supraglacial lakes and rivers, and subglacial melt and lakes. Efforts will focus on a thorough analysis of various components of the hydrological network in selected test regions and their impact on ice sheet flow. 4DGreenland started in September 2020. Here, we will present the project objectives, methods, and show initial results obtained within the project such as a comparison of supraglacial lake depths from optical imagery and ICESat-2 altimetry data, estimation of basal melt water production, and identification and mapping of surface meltwater presence and subglacial lakes from EO data.</p><p> </p>

Simulating the formation and decay of supraglacial lakes in South-West Greenland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prateek Gantayat ◽  
Amber Leeson ◽  
James Lea ◽  
Noel Gourmelen ◽  
Xavier Fettweis
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
West Greenland ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Linear Elastic ◽  
Supraglacial Lakes ◽  
South West ◽  
The Future ◽  
Water Values

<p><strong>The dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is greatly affected by surface meltwater that is routed from the surface to the bed, for example when a supraglacial lake (SGL) drains. The South-West Greenland Ice Sheet (SWGrIS) has an abundance of such lakes that form and decay over every hydrological year. In case a crevasse is opened up underneath an SGL, the lake water is likely to drain via the crevasse into the ice-sheet’s bed. This in turn influences the ice sheet motion by increasing the lubrication at the ice-sheet’s base. SGLs may also either drain laterally via a supra-glacial meltwater channel or the water they contain can stay put throughout the hydrological year, refreezing in the winter. These processes may affect the ice rheology in addition to influencing ice flow. While simulating the future evolution of the GrIS, it is thus important to account for processes associated with the evolution of SGLs. Until now, however, none of the existing ice sheet models have fully accounted for these processes, in part because no hydrological model yet includes them all. Here we propose a new process-based hydrological model for the SWGrIS which fully accounts for the evolution of  SGLs. The model consists of four units. The first is a surface water routing unit where the daily-generated surface meltwater is routed assuming steepest decent into the surface depressions forming SGLs. The second unit uses principles of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) to deal with the scenario where an SGL drains into the bed through an underlying crevasse. The third deals with the SGL drainage event that occurs when a surface meltwater channel gets incised though the ice sheet’s surface due to erosion from the SGL’s overflowing meltwater i.e. channel incision. Finally, the fourth unit simulates the freezing/unfreezing of SGLs by calculating the energy balance at the SGL’s surface. Using this model forced by Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) derived daily surface melt-water values we quantify a) the amount and location of surface meltwater injection to the ice-sheet’s bed via moulins or crevasses and ,b) the meltwater that is either  retained in SGL or drained overland via meltwater channels and stored elsewhere over the period 2011-2020, in the Leverett glacier catchment. In the future, we plan to integrate this hydrological model with the sophisticated state-of-the-art BISICLES ice sheet model.</strong></p>

Greenland ice sheet contribution to future global sea level rise based on CMIP5 models

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Yan ◽  
Huijun Wang ◽  
Ola M. Johannessen ◽  
Zhongshi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Global Sea Level
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