scholarly journals Optimalisasi Prediksi Penjualan Produk Herbal Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo dalam Meningkatkan Transaksi (Studi Kasus: Toko Herbal An Nabawi)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nova Hayati ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Herbal Products ◽  
Web Based ◽  
The Public ◽  
Product Availability ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
Web Based System

Herbs are a product that is in great demand by the public. With so many enthusiasts of herbal products, there is a need for product availability to increase sales transactions for these products. To increase sales transactions for these products, one process that can be done is to predict the sales of herbal products, with data used from January 2018 to December 2019 at the An Nabawi herbal shop. The prediction process is carried out using the Monte Carlo method and to simplify the prediction process a web-based system with the PHP programming language is implemented to make it easier. With the Monte Carlo method used in this study to predict sales of herbal products so that the leadership can use it to make decisions on the availability of herbal products in the shop. The sales prediction results obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation process with an accuracy rate of 87.91%. In this way, the Monte Carlo method can be applied to predict the future sales of herbal products and can be used by store leaders to make decisions regarding the availability of herbal products.

scholarly journals Prediction of Ornamental Plant's Sales from Monte-Carlo Simulations

Khazanah ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
farah Alysa Putri ◽  
◽  
Sekar Salma Putri ◽  
Rika Yulianti ◽  
Safrida Isna Sifa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Middle Class ◽  
Ornamental Plants ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Economic Power ◽  
Accuracy Rate ◽  
Target Number ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

Indonesia is projected to become the world's number four economic power with a demographic bonus. The demographic bonus is obtained from the size of the middle class and the productive age population in Indonesia. With this opportunity, Indonesia has a chance to achieve target number 8 of the SDGs. However, during the current COVID-19 pandemic, the Indonesian economy is experiencing a recession. This can be restored with the contribution of the middle class in increasing sales of ornamental plants which are in great demand by the public during the pandemic. Indra Garden's ornamental plants, located in Pondok Ranji, is one of the MSMEs that sells various types of ornamental plants. The research objective was to predict future sales and profit figures from Indra Garden's ornamental plants. This study uses secondary data with data collection techniques, namely direct interviews from Indra Garden. The data used are sales data caladium of ornamental plants with various species for 1 month in October 2020 using the Monte-Carlo method. Based on simulation using the Monte-Carlo method, the prediction results obtained from the sales of caladium types of ornamental plants are 3 per day in a month. This simulation was carried out 7 times and obtained a prediction of the sales profit of Rp. 4,802,500 with an accuracy rate of 97.41%. Meanwhile, the data examiner using MAPE showed that the prediction error rate was 46.51% so it can be stated that the prediction success was 55.49%. The Monte-Carlo method can predict the sales of ornamental plants in the next period with an accuracy rate of 97.41% and a MAPE of 46.51%. So it can be concluded that the simulation results are accurate and suitable for use in making sales decisions in the future.

scholarly journals Pemodelan dan Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Meningkatkan Pendapatan Penjualan Peralatan Motor (Studi Kasus : Bengkel AMI Motor)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wita Siska Moza ◽  
Yuhandri Yunus
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategies ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Sales Revenue ◽  
Know How ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Web Based System

AMI Motor shop is a various shop that is engaged in sales by selling various motorcycle equipment. Sales transactions vary in stores, but almost all products have increased and decreased, so it is necessary to know how the product data is related to consumer demand. Sales simulation is an estimate that can provide benefits in making decisions to increase sales revenue. The purpose of this study is to predict what motorcycle equipment stock should be increased and decreased in sales in the following year. The data used is motor equipment sales data in 2018 and 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. In speeding up data processing, this system is applied to a web-based system using the PHP (Hypertext Processor) programming language. Based on the results of testing prediction levels of motorcycle equipment sales, average accuracy is 95,92%, making it easier for company leaders to make decisions on developing business strategies to increase sales revenue.

scholarly journals Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Prediksi Tingkat Penjualan Produk HPAI

2020 ◽  
pp. 86-91
Author(s):  
Rahmatia Wulan Dari ◽  
Sarjon Defit ◽  
Gunadi Widi Nurcahyo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Average Accuracy ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
Product Sales

Predicting sales is an important aspect of sales development. Sales prediction simulation is an estimate about calculating the level of product sales in a certain period. The research objective was to predict the level of sales of HPAI products at HNI Halal Mart. The data used is sales data for HPAI products from 2017 to 2019 which are processed using the Monte Carlo method. Based on the results of testing the prediction of the sales level of HPAI products, an average accuracy of 84,5% is obtained, making it easier in the decision making process and helping in choosing a good business strategy.

UGR CALCULATION BASED ON THE LUMINANCE SPATIAL-ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Viktor Zheltov ◽  
Viktor Chembaev
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Visual Task ◽  
New Method ◽  
Lighting System ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
System A ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article has considered the calculation of the unified glare rating (UGR) based on the luminance spatial-angular distribution (LSAD). The method of local estimations of the Monte Carlo method is proposed as a method for modeling LSAD. On the basis of LSAD, it becomes possible to evaluate the quality of lighting by many criteria, including the generally accepted UGR. UGR allows preliminary assessment of the level of comfort for performing a visual task in a lighting system. A new method of "pixel-by-pixel" calculation of UGR based on LSAD is proposed.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

Application of the Monte Carlo Method for the Prediction of Behavior of Peptides

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla P. Toropova ◽  
Andrey A. Toropov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Monte Carlo Technique ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Modern Natural

Prediction of physicochemical and biochemical behavior of peptides is an important and attractive task of the modern natural sciences, since these substances have a key role in life processes. The Monte Carlo technique is a possible way to solve the above task. The Monte Carlo method is a tool with different applications relative to the study of peptides: (i) analysis of the 3D configurations (conformers); (ii) establishment of quantitative structure – property / activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs); and (iii) development of databases on the biopolymers. Current ideas related to application of the Monte Carlo technique for studying peptides and biopolymers have been discussed in this review.

Modeling grain growth by the monte carlo method on isotropic grids

1999 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-72
Author(s):  
M. Yu. Al’es ◽  
A. I. Varnavskii ◽  
S. P. Kopysov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Grain Growth ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method
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