scholarly journals An Agent-Based Model of West Nile Virus: Predicting the Impact of Public Health Agents and Vaccinations on Horses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shandi Stiner ◽  
Vinodh Chellamuthu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Perspectives on Applying Artificial Intelligence to Model Outbreak Risk: Contextualizing the Impact of Climate Change on Vector-borne Disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alexander Gayle
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Behavioral Variability ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
West Nile ◽  
The Impact

As recent history has shown, changing climate not only threatens to increase the spread of known disease, but also the emergence of new and dangerous phenotypes. This occurred most recently with West Nile virus: a virus previously known for mild febrile illness rapidly emerged to become a major cause of mortality and long-term disability throughout the world. As we move forward, into increasingly uncertain times, public health research must begin to incorporate a broader understanding of the determinants of disease emergence – what, how, why, and when. The increasing mainstream availability of high-quality open data and high-powered analytical methods presents promising new opportunities. Up to now, quantitative models of disease outbreak risk have been largely based on just a few key drivers, namely climate and large-scale climatic effects. Such limited assessments, however, often overlook key interacting processes and downstream determinants more likely to drive local manifestation of disease. Such pivotal determinants may include local host abundance, human behavioral variability, and population susceptibility dynamics. The results of such analyses can therefore be misleading in cases where necessary downstream requirements are not fulfilled. It is therefore important to develop models that include climate and higher-level climatic effects alongside the downstream non-climatic factors that ultimately determine individual disease manifestation. Today, few models attempt to comprehensively address such dynamics: up until very recently, the technology simply hasn’t been available. Herein, we present an updated overview of current perspectives on the varying drivers and levels of interactions that drive disease spread. We review the predominant analytical paradigms, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and highlight promising new analytical solutions. Our focus is on the prediction of arboviruses, particularly West Nile virus, as these diseases represent the pinnacle of epidemiological complexity – solution to which would serve as an effective “gatekeeper”. We present the current state-of-the-art with respect to known drivers of arbovirus outbreak risk and severity, differentially highlighting the impact of climate and non-climatic drivers. The reality of multiple classes of drivers interacting at different geospatial and temporal scales requires advanced new methodologies. We therefore close out by presenting and discussing some promising new applications of AI. Given the reality of accelerating disease risks due to climate change, public health and other related fields must begin the process of updating their research programs to incorporate these much needed, new capabilities.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of West Nile Virus in the United States: Implications for Arbovirology and Public Health

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1456-1462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyle R Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Priorities ◽  
High Morbidity ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Since West Nile virus (WNV) emerged in the United States in 1999, 22,999 neuroinvasive disease cases in humans were reported through 2017. These cases have arisen from an estimated seven million human infections. Population incidence is geographically heterogeneous and is highest in the West and Midwest. Upwards of 2% of the population in some jurisdictions may become infected during outbreaks. Before universal screening of the United States blood supply, this high infection incidence and that approximately 75% of those infected remain asymptomatic translated into a considerable risk of WNV transfusion transmission despite the short duration of viremia following infection. Universal blood donor screening has nearly eliminated the risk of WNV transfusion transmission, but at enormous cost. WNV transmission via transplanted organs carries extremely high morbidity and mortality. Improved vector surveillance and timely and effective response to surveillance data can reduce the impact of WNV and should remain public health priorities.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Gabriele-Rivet ◽  
Kelsey L. Spence ◽  
Nicholas H. Ogden ◽  
Aamir Fazil ◽  
Patricia Turgeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Vulnerable Populations ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Avoidable Deaths ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Impact

Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model was used to explore the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic under three intervention scenarios (infection-preventing vaccination, illness-preventing vaccination and shielding) in individuals above three age thresholds (greater than or equal to 45, 55 and 65 years) while lifting shutdowns and physical distancing in the community. Compared with a scenario with sustained community-wide measures, all age-stratified intervention scenarios resulted in a substantial epidemic resurgence, with hospital and ICU bed usage exceeding healthcare capacities even at the lowest age threshold. Individuals under the age threshold were severely impacted by the implementation of all age-stratified interventions, with large numbers of avoidable deaths. Among all explored scenarios, shielding older individuals led to the most detrimental outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality) for all ages, including the targeted population. This study suggests that, in the absence of community-wide measures, implementing interventions exclusively within vulnerable age groups could result in unmanageable levels of infections, with serious outcomes within the population. Caution is therefore warranted regarding early relaxation of community-wide restrictions.

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

Characterizing the acceptability of a vaccine for West Nile virus by public health practitioners

Vaccine ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 3423-3427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasha Epp ◽  
Shannon Waldner ◽  
Judith Wright ◽  
Phil Curry ◽  
Hugh G. Townsend ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Health Practitioners ◽  
Public Health Practitioners

scholarly journals When to Spray: a Time-Scale Calculus Approach to Controlling the Impact of West Nile Virus

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Thomas ◽  
Marion Weedermann ◽  
Lora Billings ◽  
Joan Hoffacker ◽  
Robert A. Washington-Allen
Keyword(s):  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Time Scale Calculus ◽  
The Impact

West Nile virus lineage 2 in Sardinian wild birds in 2012: a further threat to public health

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (11) ◽  
pp. 2313-2316 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. SAVINI ◽  
G. PUGGIONI ◽  
A. DI GENNARO ◽  
G. DI FRANCESCO ◽  
A. M. ROCCHIGIANI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
West Nile Virus ◽  
Sequence Analysis ◽  
Wild Birds ◽  
Homologous Sequence ◽  
West Nile ◽  
Lineage 2 ◽  
High Level

SUMMARYWest Nile virus (WNV) strains belonging to lineage 2 were detected and isolated from the tissues of a goshawk and two carrion crows in Sardinia in August 2012. According to NS3 sequence analysis, the Sardinian isolates shared a high level of similarity with those of Italian lineage 2 strains which circulated in 2011 and with the homologous sequence of the 2004 Hungarian isolate. Following the human fatality reported in 2011 in Olbia, this study is the first to report the spread and enzootic circulation of WNV lineage 2 in Sardinia.

scholarly journals Examining the Impact of the Walking School Bus With an Agent-Based Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (7) ◽  
pp. 1196-1203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Yang ◽  
Ana Diez-Roux ◽  
Kelly R. Evenson ◽  
Natalie Colabianchi
Keyword(s):  
Agent Based Model ◽  
School Bus ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Walking School Bus ◽  
The Impact
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document