scholarly journals Environmental Degradation: Monetary Transmission Mechanism and CO2 Emission

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buket Taştan ◽  
Kenan Terzioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Transmission Channels

As a result of recent changes in traditional risk perception accompanying industrialization and technology, global economic risks are increasingly based on the climate. While risks are considered using a two-dimensional approach in traditional risk perception, risk structures occur in a chain under globalization. In the concept of sustainability, environmental degradation and economic growth establish the link between environmental degradation and other macroeconomic variables. Monetary transmission channels—including the interest, exchange rate, asset price, credit, and expectation channels—impact the real economy and productivity by enabling capital accumulation, the orientation of small funds, and technological diffusion. In this context, the evaluation of the efficiency of monetary transmission channels and environmental degradation policy recommendations need to be addressed, especially, within the industrial sector. Although the cointegration approach is based on the fact that linear combinations of non-stationary series are stationary, cointegration analyses in which structural breaks are defined as dummy variables should be performed since the linear combination may change at a certain point in the sample. This study aims to reveal the effect of industrial production index and energy consumption on greenhouse gas emissions using a structural break approach with cointegration methods. Policy suggestions within the scope of sustainability are evaluated considering the long-term structural results among the variables.

scholarly journals Crisis and the Role of Money in the Real and Financial Economies—An Innovative Approach to Monetary Stimulus

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Richard Simmons ◽  
Paolo Dini ◽  
Nigel Culkin ◽  
Giuseppe Littera
Keyword(s):  
Asset Price ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Poor Growth ◽  
The Real ◽  
Asset Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Financial Economy

`Financial crisis’ is sometimes regarded as synonymous with `economic crisis’, but this is an oversimplification and risks missing the feedback loops between the financial and real economies. In this paper, the role of money is revisited in the context of distinguishing the real economy from the financial economy. A theoretical framework is developed to explain how endogenous (bank credit) and central bank exogenous (quantitative easing, QE) money creation feed into the real and financial economies. It looks at how the velocity of monetary circulation varies between the two economies and across asset types within the financial economy. Monetary transmission mechanisms are set into a framework that helps explain how QE stimulus risks combining asset price bubbles with poor growth in the real economy. The real economy transmission mechanism of `helicopter money’ is given context, enabling an assessment of the efficacy of both the QE and helicopter money policy routes. Finally, we present a new type of monetary transmission, `Smart Helicopter Money’, to deliver monetary stimulus to innovators, SMEs and high-growth firms via both complementary currencies and a modified form of QE in order to achieve proportionally greater impact on the real economy.

Technology transfer tools and mechanisms

2020 ◽  
pp. 87-92
Author(s):  
N. I. Hornostai ◽  
O. Y. Mykhalchenkova ◽  
O. І. Lyubarsky
Keyword(s):  
Technology Transfer ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
World Market ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
International Technology Transfer ◽  
Transfer Of Knowledge ◽  
Technological Transfer

In the context of the need for sustainable development of the national economy and joining the group of leading countries — technology suppliers, the organization of a technology transfer system, which ensures the transition of the results of innovative activities from the stage of scientific research to the stage of practical application, becomes one of the most important tools for the scientific and technological development of the country. Technology transfer is a rather complex system with a sufficient variety of participants and resources, which are the “tool of the initiative and communication plan” that promote and are necessary for continuous innovation in the modern economy. The tools and mechanisms of technology transfer are discussed in the article, a model for the implementation of international technology transfer in UkrISTEI through the Automated system for the formation of interstate information resources, the International technological platform for the technology transfer of collective use, the Interregional Office for the Transfer of Knowledge and Technologies, the Open Innovation Platform was presented; these objects are participating parts in export and import of innovative technologies and form a modern mechanism for the transfer of these technologies between countries. The process of technological transfer necessary to assess the benefits obtained as a result of technology transfer and ways to achieve these benefits has been investigated. The authors of the article presented the relevance of scientific research in the field of technological transfer, which is explained by the following reasons: effective organization of the technology transfer process contributes to an increase in the implementation of state innovation programs in relation to the modernization and innovation of the real economy; technology transfer facilitates the continuous movement of research and development results (projects) into the industrial sector of the economy; the efficiency of technological transfer makes it possible to accelerate the formation of scientific, technological and industrial ties, as well as to strengthen the position of national production in the world market of science-intensive developments.

scholarly journals Selecting a Model for Forecasting

Econometrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Castle ◽  
Jurgen A. Doornik ◽  
David F. Hendry
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Static Model ◽  
Forecast Period ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Theoretical Results

We investigate forecasting in models that condition on variables for which future values are unknown. We consider the role of the significance level because it guides the binary decisions whether to include or exclude variables. The analysis is extended by allowing for a structural break, either in the first forecast period or just before. Theoretical results are derived for a three-variable static model, but generalized to include dynamics and many more variables in the simulation experiment. The results show that the trade-off for selecting variables in forecasting models in a stationary world, namely that variables should be retained if their noncentralities exceed unity, still applies in settings with structural breaks. This provides support for model selection at looser than conventional settings, albeit with many additional features explaining the forecast performance, and with the caveat that retaining irrelevant variables that are subject to location shifts can worsen forecast performance.

Absence of the weekend effect and industry-style portfolios

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-475
Author(s):  
Selma Izadi ◽  
Abdullah Noman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Portfolio ◽  
The Us ◽  
Using Data

Purpose The existence of the weekend effect has been reported from the 1950s to 1970s in the US stock markets. Recently, Robins and Smith (2016, Critical Finance Review, 5: 417-424) have argued that the weekend effect has disappeared after 1975. Using data on the market portfolio, they document existence of structural break before 1975 and absence of any weekend effects after that date. The purpose of this study is to contribute some new empirical evidences on the weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years. Design/methodology/approach The authors re-examine persistence or reversal of the weekend effect in the industry portfolios consisting of The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations exchange (NASDAQ) stocks using daily returns from 1926 to 2017. Our results confirm varying dates for structural breaks across industrial portfolios. Findings As for the existence of weekend effects, the authors get mixed results for different portfolios. However, the overall findings provide broad support for the absence of weekend effects in most of the industrial portfolios as reported in Robins and Smith (2016). In addition, structural breaks for other weekdays and days of the week effects for other days have also been documented in the paper. Originality/value As far as the authors are aware, this paper is the first research that analyzes weekend effect for the industry-style portfolios in the US stock market using data over 90 years.

Testing Structural Break in the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 442-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saidia Jeelani ◽  
Joity Tomar ◽  
Tapas Das ◽  
Seshanwita Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The article aims to study the relationship between those macroeconomic factors that the affect (INR/USD) exchange rate (ER). Time series data of 40 years on ER, GDP, inflation, interest rate (IR), FDI, money supply, trade balance (TB) and terms of trade (ToT) have been collected from the RBI website. The considered model has suggested that only inflation, TB and ToT have influenced the ER significantly during the study period. Other macroeconomic variables such as GDP, FDI and IR have not significantly influenced the ER during the study period. The model is robust and does not suffer from residual heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and non-normality. Sometimes the relationship between ER and macroeconomic variables gets affected by major economic events. For example, the Southeast Asian crisis caused by currency depreciation in 1997 and sub-prime loan crisis of 2008 severely strained the national economies. Any global economic turmoil will affect different economic variables through ripple effect and this, in turn, will affect the ER of different economies differently. The article has also diagnosed whether there is any structural break or not in the model by applying Chow’s Breakpoint Test and have obtained multiple breaks between 2003 and 2009. The existence of structural breaks during 2003–2009 is explained by the fact that volume of crude oil imported by India is high and oil price rise led to a deficit in the TB alarmingly, which caused a structural break or parameter instability.

Methodological approaches to assessing the digitalization scale in types of economic activity in the region and the potential of digital technologies for the real economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 1519-1541
Author(s):  
Vitalii V. PECHATKIN ◽  
Liliya M. VIL'DANOVA
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The Real ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Methodological Approaches

Subject. As digital technologies spread across all industries, active processes of digital transformation need to be managed both nationally and regionally. Assessing the extent of digitalization across types of economic activities is the key issue for setting up the socio-economic development strategy of the region and evaluating its efficiency. Objectives. The study is aimed to formulate and test methodological approaches to assessing the digitalization in types of economic activities and the potential of digital technologies for the real economy. Methods. The study relies upon the dialectical method, systems approach, questionnaires, expert approach, interpretation of empirical facts through tables, etc. Results. We devised a methodological approaches to assessing the extent of digitalization in types of economic activities across regions. The approach combines the quantification and evaluation of the process and helps determine the extent of local digital transformation at the regional level. We devised and tested the methodological approach to rating digital technologies, which have the high potential for raising the competitiveness and resilience to competition of the industrial sector in the Russian regions. As opposed to the existing approaches, the approach accounts for the current scale of digital technologies in the national economy, the potential for growth in the demand and supply in the domestic and foreign markets, and the potential for import substitution with respect to foreign technologies and products. Conclusions and Relevance. What makes the proposed methodological approaches more preferable is that they help assess not only the extent of digitalization in types of economic activities and the predominance of certain types in industrial enterprises, but also determine their potential for import substitution in terms of digital security.

A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.

scholarly journals Transportation Dynamic Behaviour of Structural Break and Consumer Price Index

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-290
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Break Points

This paper studies the dynamic behaviour of transportation price in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah from 2004 to 2015 using disaggregated monthly price data of consumer price index (CPI). For that, unit root tests and cointegration tests with structural breaks are incorporated. The findings indicated that (i) both Zivot and Andrews unit root test and Perron unit root test provided fairly similar results; most of the break points occurred in 2008, (ii) the variables cointegrate in the Johansen cointegration test which indicates that there is a long-run relationship and (iii) the Gregory and Hansen test also demonstrated some form of cointegration with structural break(s), especially in 2008. Overall, this study intends to match the structural break points with the comparable critical economic events

The Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-88
Author(s):  
Juan Antonio Morales ◽  
Paul Reding
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

This chapter explores the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) in low financial development countries (LFDCs). It successively discusses the interest rate, asset price, bank credit, balance sheet, expectations, and real balance channels. For each channel, conceptual aspects about how it operates, how it transmits monetary policy impulses to the economy’s financial and real spheres, are first presented. Next, the impact of the specificities of LFDCs on the channel’s strength and reliability are examined and the available empirical evidence is surveyed. The chapter concludes with a global assessment of the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism in LFDCs. Evidence points to a transmission mechanism that is effective although not very strong, and possibly also more uncertain than in advanced and emerging market countries.

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