scholarly journals Effects of USD Exchange Rate over the Istanbul Stock Market 30 Index and Investigation of the Relationship between Them

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selçuk Kendirli ◽  
Muhammet Çankaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Important Place ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Istanbul Stock Exchange ◽  
The Relationship

It is known that financial markets have important place in today's economy. Individuals could be evaluated their saving with their own research or they could be evaluated their savings with financial experts recommendations. A large portion of those funds of individual or institutional investors managed are directed to the stock market of the country. When considered in terms of Turkey, Istanbul Stock Exchange is examples for this topic. The changes in economic data, is influenced to many variables especially the stock market. It is perceived in the market as bad data that the rising in unemployment, the reduction of industrial production, the increases in interest rates and cost of credit, the increase in foreign exchange rates. In this study, it was investigated the causality of the dollar exchange rate between Istanbul Stock Exchange National 30 Index (BIST-30) with "Granger Causality Test". Monthly values are used including the period of 2009:1 (January of 2009) between period of 2014:12 (December 2014) as data set. We used the first trading day closing values in the calculation of monthly returns for the period. At the end of the study, we couldn’t find any causal relationship between the dollar exchange rate and the BIST-30 Index.

scholarly journals WOMEN FEEL MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MEN: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashi Küçükaslan ◽  
Sadullah Çelik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The leading role that is attributable to economic indicators like consumer confidence has been well documented in the literature for many developed nations. Moreover, the relationship between high frequency financial market data has been a common research topic for world economies. However, there is hardly any study that attempts to search for the possible functional relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables. This paper is a simple attempt to link these two brands of literature by focusing on the relationship between financial market variables and consumer confidence index before the global crisis has started. We have two distinctive points. First, we derive separate consumer confidence indices for men and women by employing micro‐level consumer confidence data from an emerging market (Turkish CNBC‐e consumer confidence index) for the period of January 2003 ‐ January 2008. Second, employing this data set, we do not only check for the existence of a relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables (such as interest rates, exchange rates and stock exchange index) but also focus on the possibility of gender response. We find evidence of gender response difference as throughout the period women are more pessimistic than men‐due probably to lower levels of wealth‐and respond less to changes in exchange rates than men‐due probably to lower purchasing power. Santrauka Ekonominiu rodikliu kaip pirkejo pasitikejimo vaidmens svarba yra išsamiai pagrista daugelio išsivys‐čiusiu šaliu literatūroje. Be to, ryšys tarp aukšto finansu. rinkos svyravimo duomenu yra dažna tyrimu tema daugelyje pasaulio šaliu. Tačiau vargu ar galima būtu rasti tyrimu, kuriuose būtu bandoma surasti funkcini ryši tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu. Šis straipsnis ‐ tai meginimas susieti šias dvi rūšis, orientuojantis i ryši tarp finansu. rinku rodikliu ir pirkejo pasitikejimo indekso prieš prasi‐dedant pasaulinei krizei. Šiame straipsnyje pabrežti du išskirtiniai bruožai. Pirma, nustatomi atskiri mo‐teru ir vyru pasitikejimo indeksai naudojantis 2003 m. sausio men. ‐ 2008 m. sausio men. laikotarpio augančiu rinku mikrolygmens pirkejo pasitikejimo duomenimis (Turku CNBC‐e pirkejo pasitikejimo indeksas). Antra, naudojantis šia informacija tikrinamas ne tik esamas ryšys tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu (pavyzdžiui, palūkanu normos, valiutu kurso, akciju biržos indekso). Buvo rasta akivaizdžiu skirtumu tarp atsakymu, gautu iš skirtingu lyčiu atstovu. Visa laikotarpi moterys buvo pesi‐mistiškesnes nei vyrai, tikriausiai del žemo geroves lygio. Jos mažiau reagavo i valiutu kurso pokyčius nei vyrai del mažesnes perkamosios galios.

scholarly journals STUDY OF CONNECTION BETWEEN STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN MALAYSIAN CONTEXT

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-90
Author(s):  
Ngee Derk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Meaningful Relationship ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The focus of the study is to test the stock market performance influence on the economic growth for time series for the period of 2002 to 2018 on quarterly basis. In this study, the performance measures included standard deviation which is measure of volatility, total value traded shared as measure of liquidity, turnover ratio as measure of liquidity, and stock market capitalization ratio as a measure of the size. The focus of the study is the Malaysian stock exchange market. The study utilized real GDP as an indicator of economic growth. The exchange rate and the interest rates are used as control variables. The study used Vector Autoregressive model and the Granger causality test are utilized for finding the directional relationship between the stock market and economic growth connection. Results states that variables are statistically insignificant and there is no meaningful relationship found.

scholarly journals Determining a Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Study on Eurasia

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekir Elmas ◽  
Ömer Esen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The stock price has a close relationship with some macroeconomic variables. As examples of the main macroeconomic variables can be shown that exchange rates, inflation, interest rate, growth rates. This paper empirically examined the relationship between the local stock market indexes and exchange rate (USD) in six Eurasian countries namely Turkey, Germany, France, Netherlands, Russia, France and India. The paper set out by testing existence of a long-term relationship between considered two variables using the Engle-Granger (1987), Johansen (1988, 1995) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration methods. Results of Engle- Granger cointegration test showed that there is no cointegration linkage between two variables under consideration. Furthermore, The Johansen cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship between two variables (variables in the two countries). Under the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models appllied the Granger causality test, revealed an unidirectional casual relationship between two variables in each of the six countries. In addition as regards the relationship While there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rate to stock market for four countries. However this relation is casual running from stock market to exchange rate for other two countries. According to the direction of the relationship these results that relationship between stock prices and exchange rate in four countries supports for the “Traditional Approach”. Furthermore, this relation also supports for the “Portfolio Approach” for other two countries.

scholarly journals Existe Alguma Relação entre Retornos Contábeis e Retornos do Mercado de Ações no Brasil?

2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 233
Author(s):  
Newton Carneiro Affonso da Costa Jr. ◽  
Roberto Meurer ◽  
César Medeiros Cupertino
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between accounting and stock market returns of Brazilian companies on a quarterly basis. The sample consisted of 97 companies with stocks traded in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange from January of 1995 to March of 2007. A Granger causality test was applied to the two return series for each of the sampled companies. The results of the causality tests suggested that there is weak evidence that accounting returns lead stock market returns rather than the reverse.

scholarly journals REGIME CHANGES IN MONETARY POLICY AND THE EXPECTATION HYPOTHESIS OF THE TERM STRUCTURE IN TURKEY

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-274
Author(s):  
K. Azim Özdemir ◽  
Özgür Özel
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Structural Instability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Expectation Hypothesis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

In this study we test the long-run validity of the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure (EHTS) in Turkey by using monthly interest rate series from 2003m1 to 2010m1. The data set is obtained from the bonds and bills market for the government securities in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). Several results arise from our empirical analysis. First, we find strong evidence that there are stationary combinations of the long and short rates during the sample period. Secondly, when we restrict the cointegrating vectors to be the spread vectors between short and long rates we are not able to reject the restriction if the dynamic specifications of the systems include 2 lags of the interest rates. This result, however, is not robust to the lag length of 4 and 6 if the systems include interest rates with maturities longer than 6 months. Finally, the formal stability test results suggest that the regime change from the implicit to the full-fledged inflation targeting (IT) has no significant effect on the relationship among the interest rates on the short end of the term structure while the structural instability found in the relationship between the short rates and the long rates with maturity longer than 6 months might indicate the effect of the regime shift on this relationship. These results are in line with the conclusions of the literature that argues the EHTS to hold for the short end of the term structure when the focus of the monetary policy is to stabilize the short-term interest rates.

scholarly journals WOMEN FEEL MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MEN: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-171
Author(s):  
Ashi Küçükaslan ◽  
Sadullah Çelik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The leading role that is attributable to economic indicators like consumer confidence has been well documented in the literature for many developed nations. Moreover, the relationship between high frequency financial market data has been a common research topic for world economies. However, there is hardly any study that attempts to search for the possible functional relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables. This paper is a simple attempt to link these two brands of literature by focusing on the relationship between financial market variables and consumer confidence index before the global crisis has started. We have two distinctive points. First, we derive separate consumer confidence indices for men and women by employing micro‐level consumer confidence data from an emerging market (Turkish CNBC‐e consumer confidence index) for the period of January 2003 ‐ January 2008. Second, employing this data set, we do not only check for the existence of a relationship between consumer confidence and financial market variables (such as interest rates, exchange rates and stock exchange index) but also focus on the possibility of gender response. We find evidence of gender response difference as throughout the period women are more pessimistic than men‐due probably to lower levels of wealth‐and respond less to changes in exchange rates than men‐due probably to lower purchasing power. Santrauka Ekonominiu rodikliu kaip pirkejo pasitikejimo vaidmens svarba yra išsamiai pagrista daugelio išsivys‐čiusiu šaliu literatūroje. Be to, ryšys tarp aukšto finansu. rinkos svyravimo duomenu yra dažna tyrimu tema daugelyje pasaulio šaliu. Tačiau vargu ar galima būtu rasti tyrimu, kuriuose būtu bandoma surasti funkcini ryši tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu. Šis straipsnis ‐ tai meginimas susieti šias dvi rūšis, orientuojantis i ryši tarp finansu. rinku rodikliu ir pirkejo pasitikejimo indekso prieš prasi‐dedant pasaulinei krizei. Šiame straipsnyje pabrežti du išskirtiniai bruožai. Pirma, nustatomi atskiri mo‐teru ir vyru pasitikejimo indeksai naudojantis 2003 m. sausio men. ‐ 2008 m. sausio men. laikotarpio augančiu rinku mikrolygmens pirkejo pasitikejimo duomenimis (Turku CNBC‐e pirkejo pasitikejimo indeksas). Antra, naudojantis šia informacija tikrinamas ne tik esamas ryšys tarp pirkejo pasitikejimo ir finansu. rinku rodikliu (pavyzdžiui, palūkanu normos, valiutu kurso, akciju biržos indekso). Buvo rasta akivaizdžiu skirtumu tarp atsakymu, gautu iš skirtingu lyčiu atstovu. Visa laikotarpi moterys buvo pesi‐mistiškesnes nei vyrai, tikriausiai del žemo geroves lygio. Jos mažiau reagavo i valiutu kurso pokyčius nei vyrai del mažesnes perkamosios galios.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic factors and LQ45 stock price index: evidence from Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sugeng Hadi Utomo ◽  
Dwi Wulandari ◽  
Bagus Shandy Narmaditya ◽  
Puji Handayati ◽  
Suryati Ishak
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Relationship

This paper provides the relationship between macroeconomic variables, including exchange rate, BI rate and inflation, and stocks performance, particulary bluechip stocks listed in LQ45 index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study particularly gives insights on bluechip stocks listed in LQ45 stock price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2015 and 2017. The data were obtained from various sources during the period, including the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), and the Ministry of Trade. This study followed a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) attempting to estimate the relationship between variables both in the short term and in the long term. The findings of the study showed that in the long run, exchange rate, BI rate and inflation have a negative impact on stock market performance, particularly on LQ45 index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. It implies that an increase in macroeconomic variables results in the decline of stock market performance. Meanwhile, in the short run, two variables, namely the exchange rate and inflation, positively affect stock market performance in Indonesia. On the contrary, the relationship between BI rate and stock market performance showed a negative correlation. These findings have significant implication for the understanding of how macroeconomic variables affect the stock market performance, particularly LQ45 price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rates on Kyrgyzstan Export

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuat Sekmen ◽  
Galip Afsin Ravanoglu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Relationship

In the Keynesian models, such as Mundell-Fleming model, it is accepted that there is a significant relationship between interest rates and the value of national currency. When interest rate increases, demand for assets in terms of national currency rises and the value of national currency ascends, but in this case because of diminishing exports, the balance of trade deteriorates. In this study, it is stressed that the value of national currency is determined by productivity and output increasing. This study analysis export, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation relationship for Kyrgyzstan economy for the period of 2002:1-2017:4 The VAR granger causality method is used to get the relationship among the variables used in this study. The result of VAR granger causality test shows that there is causality from exchange rate to inflation. Also, it has been found that there has been causality running from inflation to interest rate.

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