scholarly journals Long Term Outcome Prediction in Stemi/Nstemi Patients By Means of the Model Consisting of Simple Clinical Parameters

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 159-170
Author(s):  
Paweł Korczyc ◽  
Jędrzej Chrzanowski ◽  
Arkadiusz Stasiak ◽  
Joanna Stasiak ◽  
Andrzej Bissinger ◽  
...  

Aim: Our study aimed to identify the clinical variables associated with long-term mortality after MI and to construct a simple, easy to use clinical practice model for the prediction of 5 year mortality after MI. Material and Methods: This is a prospective 5-year observation study of MI patients admitted to the Department of Cardiology at the Copernicus Memorial Hospital in Lodz in 2010 and 2011. The data were collected during hospitalization and again after a period of 1 and 5 years. A multi-factor multi-level Cox regression model was constructed to investigate the impact of clinical factors on long-term survival.results: 92 patients (39 STEMI, 53 NSTEMI) were included in the study and their data were used to construct a Cox regression model with satisfactory fit (R 2 =0.7945). Factors associated with a decrease in 5-year risk are: age (1.06, 95%CI: 1.01-1.11), SYNTAX score (1.05, 95%CI: 1.02-1.08), WBC level (1.16, 95%CI: 1.08-1.26), and glycemia at enrollment (1.01, 95%CI: 1.01-1.01). Higher values of HDL at enrollment were associated with a decrease in 5-year risk (HR=0.97, 95%CI: 0.93-0.99).conclusion: The model we created is a valuable tool that is useful and easy to employ in everyday practice for assessing the 5-year prognosis of patients after MI. What is new: The study presents the new model for prediction of 5-year mortality after myocardial infarction. This model is based on simple clinical parameters and may by applied in everyday practice.

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 674.1-674
Author(s):  
C. C. Mok ◽  
C. S. Sin ◽  
K. C. Hau ◽  
T. H. Kwan

Background:The goals of treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) are to induce remission, retard the progression of chronic kidney disease, prevent organ complications and ultimately reduce mortality. Previous cohort studies of LN have mainly focused on the risk of mortality and development of end stage renal failure (ESRF) (renal survival). The cumulative frequency of LN patients who survive without organ damage, which correlates better with the balance between treatment efficacy and toxicity, as well as quality of life, has not been well studied.Objectives:To study the organ damage free survival and its predictive factors in patients with active LN.Methods:Consecutive patients who fulfilled ≥4 ACR/SLICC criteria for SLE and with biopsy proven active LN between 2003 and 2018 were retrospectivey analyzed. Those with organ damage before LN onset were excluded. Data on renal parameters and treatment regimens were collected. Complete renal response (CR) was defined as normalization of serum creatinine (SCr), urine P/Cr (uPCR) <0.5 and inactive urinary sediments. Partial renal response (PR) was defined as ≥50% reduction in uPCR and <25% increase in SCr. Organ damage of SLE was assessed by the ACR/SLICC damage index (SDI). The cumulative risk of having any organ damage or mortality since LN was studied by Kaplan-Meier’s analysis. Factors associated with a poor outcome were studied by a forward stepwise Cox regression model, with entry of covariates with p<0.05 and removal with p>0.10.Results:273 LN patients were identified but 64 were excluded (organ damage before LN onset). 211 LN patients were studied (92% women; age at SLE 30.4±13.5 years; SLE duration at LN 1.9±3.1years). 47 (22%) patients had nephrotic syndrome and 60 (29%) were hypertensive. Histological LN classes was: III/IV±V (75.1%), I/II (7.8%) and pure V (17.1%) (histologic activity and chronicity score 7.0±4.2 and 1.8±1.5, respectively). Induction regimens were: prednisolone (33.1±17.5mg/day) in combination with intravenous cyclophosphamide (CYC) (21.4%; 1.0±0.2g per pulse), oral CYC (8.6%; 96.4±37.8mg/day), azathioprine (AZA) (14.3%; 78.6±25.2mg/day), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (22.8%; 1.9±0.43g/day) and tacrolimus (TAC) (17.1%; 4.3±1.1mg/day). After a follow-up of 8.6±5.4 years, 94(45%) patient developed organ damage (SDI≥1) and 21(10%) patients died. The commonest organ damage was renal (36.3%) and musculoskeletal (17.9%), and the causes of death were: infection (38.1%), malignancy (19.0%), cardiovascular events (9.5%) and ESRF complications (9.5%). At last visit, 114 (55%) patients survived without any organ damage. The cumulative organ damage free survival at 5, 10 and 15 years after renal biopsy was 73.5%, 59.6% and 48.3%, respectively. The 5, 10 and 15-year renal survival rate were 95.2%, 92.0% and 84.1% respectively. In a Cox regression model, nephritic relapse (HR 3.72[1.78-7.77]), proteinuric relapse (HR 2.30[1.07-4.95]) and older age (HR 1.89[1.05-3.37]) were associated with either organ damage or mortality, whereas CR (HR 0.25[0.12-0.50]) at month 12 were associated with organ damage free survival. Baseline SCr, uPCR and histological LN classes were not significantly associated with a poor outcome. Among patients with class III/IV LN, the long-term organ damage free survival were not significantly different in users of MMF (reference) from CYC (IV/oral) (HR 1.45[0.76- 2.75]) or TAC (HR 1.03[0.26-1.62]) as induction therapy.Conclusion:Organ damage free survival is achieved in 55% of patients with active LN upon 9 years of follow-up. CYC/MMF/TAC based induction regimens did not differ for the long-term outcome of LN. Targeting complete renal response and preventing renal relapses remain important goals of LN treatment.Acknowledgments:NILDisclosure of Interests:None declared


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Mo Gao ◽  
Wei Geng ◽  
Chen Chen Luo

Abstract Background: Restoration with locking-taper implants is a widely used methodology. However, relatively few have examined conical connection systems like locking-taper implant systems. This study provides a retrospective study of locking-taper fixed restorations, mainly focused on prosthetic complications.Methods: All patients who underwent conical connected implants from 2008–2010 were examined. Preparation of the implant sites was performed according to the standard procedures for the Bicon system. The bone healing took over 6 months, and the prosthetic procedure was initiated thereafter. Integrated abutment crowns or gold porcelain crowns were used, and the prosthesis type was a single crown or a fixed dental prosthesis. Once the crown was in place, its occlusion was thoroughly checked and adjusted, and then the crown was glazed or finely polished. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative complication-free rates for 5 and 10 years. Additionally, a Cox regression model was used to identify the factors that independently influenced the results. Implant survival and marginal bone loss were also investigated.Results: A total of 392 patients who underwent 541 implants and 434 locking taper implant-based restorations from 2008–2010 were examined. The overall 5-year cumulative complication-free rate was 83.34%. The most common prosthetic complication was veneer chipping, with a frequency of 67.53%. According to the Cox regression model, the complication-free rate of integrated abutment crowns was significantly higher than gold porcelain crowns, molar regions was significantly higher than premolar regions, and females was significantly higher than males. Only three implant failures happened, and a mean marginal bone loss at 1- year, 5-year and 10- year was 0.25mm(95%CI:±0.12), 0.40mm (95%CI:±0.03)and 0.51mm(95%CI:±0.05), respectively.Conclusion: Veneer chipping was the most common complication with locking-taper implants supported fixed restorations. According to the result of Cox regression model, gold porcelain crowns are a protective factor relative to integrated abutment crowns, male sex is a protective factor relative to female sex, and premolar prosthetics are a protective factor relative to molar prosthetics. The long-term clinical effect of locking-taper implant is stable, and the implant success rate can meet the clinical needs. The bone tissue level around the implant can maintain long-term stability.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Kenichiro ◽  
M Oguri ◽  
K Takahara ◽  
T Sumi ◽  
H Takahashi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Along with an aging society, the global burden of heart failure (HF) is evident in Japan. Recent reports showed that malnutrition is one of the frequent comorbidity in patients with HF, and this grievous issue is related to worsening prognosis in such subjects. There are many screening tools of nutrition risks, however, feasible indexes or strategies for evaluating nutrition risk in patients with HF remain to be identified definitively. Purpose The purpose of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of various nutrition indexes on 3-year mortality in hospitalized acute HF patients. Methods The study population comprised a total of 817 individuals who were hospitalized for acute HF between November 2009 and December 2015, and was followed up for 3 years. All the previously established objective nutritional indexes [The controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI), and subjective global assessment (SGA)] were evaluated at the time of hospital admission. Malnutrition status of each index was defined as CONUT score ≥5, GNRI <91, or SGA (B and C), respectively. We evaluated combined predictive values of these indexes for 3-year mortality by Cox regression model, and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results The median age was 79 (interquartile range 70–85) years, and 55.7% of the subjects were male. The frequency of malnutrition was 18.1% in CONUT score, 31.9% in GNRI, and 25.9% in SGA. The rate of 3-year mortality was 32.2%. All indexes were related to the occurrence of 3-year mortality by univariate analyses (P<0.001). We examined combined predictive values by calculating multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of malnutrition by these 3 indexes and prognostic variables identified by multivariable Cox regression model (age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, reduced eGFR, albumin, and prior HF hospitalization). Malnutrition of all 3 indexes (5.6% of the subjects) was associated with higher relative risk of 3-year mortality than well-nutrition (aHR 1.90; 95% CI 1.07–3.35, P=0.028), or malnutrition of any 1 index (aHR 1.95; 95% CI 1.18–3.21, P=0.009). Next, we individually included each value into a reference model (age, body mass index, reduced eGFR, albumin, prior HF hospitalization, and ischemic etiology by multivariable logistic regression analysis with P<0.05). SGA was superior according to comprehensive discrimination, calibration, and reclassification analysis (NRI 0.212, P=0.003; IDI 0.005, P=0.029). Similar analysis with other indexes (CONUT score or GNRI) revealed no improvement. Conclusion Our present results suggest that simultaneous addition of CONUT, GNRI, and SGA seems useful for predicting long-term mortality in acute HF. In addition, nutritional screening with SGA independently improves mortality risk stratification.


BMJ Open ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. e054069
Author(s):  
Marianna Meschiari ◽  
Alessandro Cozzi-Lepri ◽  
Roberto Tonelli ◽  
Erica Bacca ◽  
Marianna Menozzi ◽  
...  

ObjectiveThe first COVID-19–19 epidemic wave was over the period of February–May 2020. Since 1 October 2020, Italy, as many other European countries, faced a second wave. The aim of this analysis was to compare the 28-day mortality between the two waves among COVID-19 hospitalised patients.DesignObservational cohort study. Standard survival analysis was performed to compare all-cause mortality within 28 days after hospital admission in the two waves. Kaplan-Meier curves as well as Cox regression model analysis were used. The effect of wave on risk of death was shown by means of HRs with 95% CIs. A sensitivity analysis around the impact of the circulating variant as a potential unmeasured confounder was performed.SettingUniversity Hospital of Modena, Italy. Patients admitted to the hospital for severe COVID-19 pneumonia during the first (22 February–31 May 2020) and second (1 October–31 December 2020) waves were included.ResultsDuring the two study periods, a total of 1472 patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia were admitted to our hospital, 449 during the first wave and 1023 during the second. Median age was 70 years (IQR 56–80), 37% women, 49% with PaO2/FiO2 <250 mm Hg, 82% with ≥1 comorbidity, median duration of symptoms was 6 days. 28-day mortality rate was 20.0% (95% CI 16.3 to 23.7) during the first wave vs 14.2% (95% CI 12.0 to 16.3) in the second (log-rank test p value=0.03). After including key predictors of death in the multivariable Cox regression model, the data still strongly suggested a lower 28-day mortality rate in the second wave (aHR=0.64, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.90, p value=0.01).ConclusionsIn our hospitalised patients with COVID-19 with severe pneumonia, the 28-day mortality appeared to be reduced by 36% during the second as compared with the first wave. Further studies are needed to identify factors that may have contributed to this improved survival.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen mo Gao ◽  
Wei Geng ◽  
Chen chen Luo

Abstract Background Restoration with locking-taper implants is a widely used methodology. However, conical connection systems such as locking-taper implant systems have rarely been examined. This study provides a retrospective investigation of locking-taper fixed restorations, mainly focusing on prosthetic complications. Methods Patients undergo treatment with conical connected implants from 2008 to 2010 were examined. Preparation of the implant sites was performed according to the standard procedures for the Bicon system. Bone healing took over 6 months, and the prosthetic procedure was initiated thereafter. Integrated abutment crowns or gold porcelain crowns were used, and the prosthesis type was a single crown or a fixed dental prosthesis. Once the crown was in place, its occlusion was thoroughly checked and adjusted, and then the crown was glazed or finely polished. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative complication-free rates for 5 and 10 years. Additionally, a Cox regression model was used to identify the factors that independently influenced the results. Implant survival and marginal bone loss were also investigated. Results A total of 392 patients who underwent 541 implants and 434 locking taper implant-based restorations from 2008 to 2010 were examined. The overall 5-year cumulative complication-free rate was 83.34%. The most common prosthetic complication was veneer chipping, with a frequency of 67.53%. According to the Cox regression model, the complication-free rate of integrated abutment crowns was significantly higher than that of gold porcelain crowns, that of molar regions was significantly higher than that of premolar regions, and that of females was significantly higher than that of males. Only three implant failures happened, and the mean marginal bone loss values at 1- year, 5-years and 10- years were 0.25 mm (95% CI ± 0.12), 0.40 mm (95% CI ± 0.03) and 0.51 mm (95% CI ± 0.05), respectively. Conclusion Veneer chipping was the most common complication with locking-taper implant-supported fixed restorations. The incidence of complications for IACs is significantly higher than that for GPCs. Age, location, and prosthesis type are not determinants of prosthetic complications. Besides, the long-term clinical effect of locking-taper implant can meet the clinical needs. The bone tissue level around the implant can maintain long-term stability.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huamao Ye ◽  
Xiang Feng ◽  
Yang Wang ◽  
Rui Chen ◽  
Meimian Hua ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The effect of diagnostic ureteroscopy (DURS) on intravesical recurrence (IVR) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) were controversial. To investigate the impact of DURS, we carried out this single-center retrospective study by applying propensity-score matching (PSM) and Cox regression model. Patients and Methods: The data of 160 patients with pTa-pT3 upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) were analyzed. Eighty-six patients underwent DURS (DURS group) and 74 patients without DURS (control group). The DURS group was further sub-grouped into synchronous DURS group (DURS followed by immediate RNU, n=45) and non-synchronous DURS group (DURS followed by delayed RNU, n=41). Baseline confounders were corrected by PSM. The impact of DURS on IVR was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis in PSM cohort and by Cox regression model in the full data set. Results: The median follow-up time was 40.4 months. No difference of the 3-year IVRFS between DURS group and control group (72.6% vs. 65.3%, p=0.263). In subgroup analysis, the 3-year IVR-free survival of non-synchronous DURS group (51.4%) was significantly lower than that of synchronous DURS (78.3%) or control group (72.6%) (p=0.027). Further Cox regression analysis showed that non-synchronous DURS (HR 1.481, 95% CI 1.031-2.127, p=0.034) was independent risk factors for postoperative IVR. Conclusions: Non-synchronous DURS was not recommended for the diagnosis and preoperative evaluation of UTUC, because it could raise the risk of IVR after RNU. For UTUC patients in need of DURS, synchronous DURS could be a safer choice than the non-synchronous DURS in terms of lowering the IVR risk.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Geyer ◽  
K Keller ◽  
T Ruf ◽  
F Kreidel ◽  
A Petrescu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Mitral valve regurgitation (MR) is a frequent heart valve disorder affecting 1–2% of the humans in the general population and over 10% of the individuals older than 75 years. While a symptomatic and prognostic benefit of transcatheter edge-to-edge repair for MR (TMVR) was reported, data regarding long-term outcome as well as influence of concomitant tricuspid regurgitation (TR) are sparse. Purpose We aimed to investigate the impact of periinterventional development of TR on survival of patients undergoing interventional edge-to-edge repair for MR in a large retrospective monocentric study. Methods We retrospectively analyzed survival of patients successfully treated with isolated edge-to-edge repair for MR from 06/2010–03/2018 (exclusion of combined forms of TMVR) in our center. Baseline, periprocedural as well as follow-up data were gathered. Concomitant TR was evaluated at baseline and after 30 days and categorized from grades 0 (no TR) to grade III (severe TR). We analyzed the influence of severe vs. non-severe TR on 30-day, 1-year and long-term survival. Results Overall, 627 consecutive patients (47.0% female, 57.4% functional MR) were enrolled. Median follow-up time was 462 days [IQR 142–945]. Survival status was available in 96.7%. Survival rates were 97.6% at discharge, 75.7% after 1, 54.5% after 3, 37.6% after 5 and 21.7% after 7 years. TR at baseline (examination results were available in 92.3%) was categorized as severe TR in 25.6%, medium TR in 33.3%, mild TR in 35.1% and no TR in 6.0%. TR at 1 month (examination results were available in 81.1%) was severe in 16.7%, medium in 30.2%, mild in 45.6% and no TR was found in 7.4%; improvement by at least 1 TR-grade was documented in 33.6% of the patients. While a severe (compared to non-severe) TR at baseline did not affect the 30-day mortality (7.4% vs. 5.2%, p=0.354), 1-year survival was substantially impaired in those patients (36.5% vs. 23.0%, p=0.012). Accordingly, severe TR was not associated with 30d-mortality (as evaluated by univariate Cox regression, p=0.340), but with 1-year survival (HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.19–2.65, p=0.005) and showed a trend towards impaired long-term survival (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.96–1.76, p=0.089). While residual severe TR at one month did not influence 1-year-mortality significantly (p=0.478), improvement of TR demonstrated a trend to better survival after the first year (86.9 vs. 81.0%, p=0.208) confirmed in the Cox regression analysis (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.36–1.22, p=0.188). Conclusions In this large retrospective monocentric study with a long-term follow-up-period of &gt;7 years after edge-to-edge therapy for MR, we demonstrated that severe TR at the time of the intervention had an impact on 1-year-survival. Furthermore, a missing periinterventional improvement of TR was shown to be unfavorable regarding the long-term survival of these patients. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e6350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfei Fu ◽  
Hang Ruan ◽  
Hongjuan Zheng ◽  
Cheng Cai ◽  
Shishi Zhou ◽  
...  

Objective This study was performed to identify a reasonable cutoff age for defining older patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and to examine whether old age was related with increased colorectal cancer-specific death (CSD) and poor colorectal cancer-specific survival (CSS). Methods A total of 76,858 eligible patients from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database were included in this study. The Cox proportional hazard regression model and the Chow test were used to determine a suitable cutoff age for defining the older group. Furthermore, a propensity score matching analysis was performed to adjust for heterogeneity between groups. A competing risk regression model was used to explore the impact of age on CSD and non-colorectal cancer-specific death (non-CSD). Kaplan–Meier survival curves were plotted to compare CSS between groups. Also, a Cox regression model was used to validate the results. External validation was performed on data from 1998 to 2003 retrieved from the SEER database. Results Based on a cutoff age of 70 years, the examined cohort of patients was classified into a younger group (n = 51,915, <70 years of old) and an older group (n = 24,943, ≥70 years of old). Compared with younger patients, older patients were more likely to have fewer lymph nodes sampled and were less likely to receive chemotherapy and radiotherapy. When adjusted for other covariates, age-dependent differences of 5-year CSD and 5-year non-CSD were significant in the younger and older groups (15.84% and 22.42%, P < 0.001; 5.21% and 14.21%, P < 0.001). Also an age of ≥70 years remained associated with worse CSS comparing with younger group (subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.51 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.45–1.57], P < 0.001). The Cox regression model as a sensitivity analysis had a similar result. External validation also supported an age of 70 years as a suitable cutoff, and this older group was associated with having reduced CSS and increased CSD. Conclusions A total of 70 is a suitable cutoff age to define those considered as having elderly CRC. Elderly CRC was associated with not only increased non-CSD but also with increased CSD. Further research is needed to provide evidence of whether cases of elderly CRC should receive stronger treatment if possible.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Kenichiro ◽  
M Oguri ◽  
K Takahara ◽  
H Takahashi ◽  
H Ishii ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The prevalence of heart failure (HF) in the elderly is steadily increasing, therefore, the prudent care and treatment according to individual's characteristics, comorbidities, or prognosis, should be prerequisite. Although cohabitations status in each elderly patient is different, an association of this condition with long-term prognosis remains to be identified definitively in Japan. Purpose The purpose of the present study was to examine the prognostic impact of cohabitation status on 3-year mortality among hospitalized acute HF patients. Methods The study population comprised a total of 817 individuals who were hospitalized for acute HF between November 2009 and December 2015, and was followed up for 3 years. We classified patients into three groups (cohabitation with spouse, cohabitation with another generation, and living alone). We evaluated relative predictive values between these three groups for 3-year mortality by Cox regression model. Results The median age was 79 (interquartile range 70–85) years, and 55.7% of the subjects were male. Median length of hospital stay was 16 (interquartile range 11–23) days. The distribution of three groups was cohabitation with spouse (50.9%), cohabitation with another generation (28.5%), and living alone (20.6%). The overall rate of 3-year mortality was 32.2% (n=263), 31.5% (n=131) in cohabitation with spouse, 38.2% (n=89) in cohabitation with another generation, and 25.6% (n=43) in living alone. Cohabitation with another generation was significantly related to the occurrence of 3-year mortality by univariate analysis (P<0.001). Age (84 years vs. 77 years), the frequency of female (69.1% vs. 33.4%), left ventricular ejection fraction (52.7% vs. 47.5%) were significantly greater, whereas body mass index (21.2 vs. 22.6), smoking status (27.0% vs. 53.4%), ischemic etiology (27.5% vs. 35.6%), and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (32.2% vs. 41.4%) and atrial fibrillation (20.6% vs. 29.8%) were significantly (P<0.05) smaller in cohabitation with another generation than others. The ratio of home return and optimal medical therapy were similar between the 2 groups. Cohabitation with another generation was associated with higher relative risk of 3-year mortality than living alone [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.65; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.15–2.38, P=0.007], or cohabitation with spouse (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.12–1.92, P=0.006). Multivariable Cox regression model, with adjustment for age, albumin, brain natriuretic peptide, and prior HF hospitalization, revealed that cohabitation with another generation was no longer significant. Conclusion Our present results suggest that cohabitation status affected on long-term prognosis in patients with HF, especially cohabitation with another generation posed as worst predictor. We should pay more attention to social factors including cohabitation status in the clinical practice.


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