Drivers of Sovereign Bond Yields in India

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Market Fundamentals

This study analyzed the behavior of the ten-year nominal sovereign bond yield in India with respect to a host of factors, especially for a decade when economic growth alters considerably with time. The vector autoregression methodology (VAR) was applied to the monthly data of economic and financial variables from January 2012 to March 2020. The findings suggested that long-run sovereign bond yield behavior was primarily driven by domestic fundamentals, including money market fundamentals. A rise in the 91-day treasury bill lagged the value of the bond yield, and inflation exert significant upward pressure on the ten year domestic sovereign bond yields. International factors such as exchange rate and crude oil price exert significant but mild influence. Another finding was affirmed that short-term domestic bond yield movements significantly determined long-run domestic bond yields. From an overall policy perspective, it becomes important to maintain domestic economic stability to manage fiscal and debt sustainability.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Anupam Das
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if the government fiscal variable has an adverse effect on government bond yields over the long run. The models estimated in this paper show that in India the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield over the long run. However, the government debt ratio does not have any discernible adverse effect on IGB yields over the long run. These findings will help policy makers to (i) use information on the current trend of the short-term interest rate and other key macro variables to form their long-term outlook about IGB yields, and (ii) understand the policy implications of the government's fiscal stance.

Markets are overreacting to US price and rates risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Ongoing Support

Significance The continuation of the modest manufacturing downturn follows the recent report of slower third-quarter GDP growth. Despite slower growth, bond markets are challenging an attempt by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delink tapering from tightening by bringing forward their forecasts for rate increases: futures markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by end-2022. Impacts Equities are at a record high in the United States; providing ongoing support for this, real US bond yields remain in negative territory. The Brent crude oil price is near its highest since 2014; further upside will be limited but it is likely to stay high well into 2022. Germany’s ten-year bond yield, negative since April 2019, has risen by 40 basis points since end-August and will soon turn positive.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN INDEKS SAHAM INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP INDEKS SAHAM JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII)

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 2381
Author(s):  
Devi Rahmiyanti ◽  
Bayu Arie Fianto
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run

This study investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables and international stock index on the stock index Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) using monthly data over period January 2013 to December, 2018. Macroeconomic variables used in this study are inflation, exchange rate, international crude oil price, World Gold Price and for the international stock index using Dow Jones Islamic Market. The study employs the eror correction model (ECM). The empirical result reveal that there is co-integration between the four macroeconomic variables, one international stock index and stock index in Jakarta Islamic Index indicating long run equilibirium relationship. Furhther, the result reveal that with significancy 0,5% only exchange rate, international crude oil price, world gold price had significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index while inflation and Dow jones Islamic Market did not have a significant effect on Jakarta Islamic Index.Keywords: The stock Index, the Jakarta Islamic Index, the macroeconomic variables

scholarly journals Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (37) ◽  
pp. 3971-3993 ◽  
Author(s):  
António Afonso ◽  
Christophe Rault
Keyword(s):  
Bond Yields ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run

scholarly journals Co-integration of Indian Stock Markets with Emerging Markets of Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Risha Khandelwal ◽  
Kanhaiya Singh
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Degree Of Association

This study has made an attempt to analyse linkages between stock markets of India, Indonesia, Philippines and Taiwan. Monthly data is considered for the present study ranging from January 2000- December 2017. The study begins with description of data series of stock market returns, followed by correlation analysis which examined the degree of association between market returns. Then unit root tests (ADF and PP) were applied to determine stationary properties of time series. All the series were found to be integrated of same order i.e. I(1). Then Johansen test of co-integration is applied followed by VECM. The results of Johansen test of co integration confirm the presence of long run linkages among select stock markets. Further, the results of VECM confirm the existence of long causality from Indonesian, Taiwan, and Philippines market to Indian markets. The study suggests that the select markets allow short term diversification benefits to investors but the same is not true in long run due to some transitory movements.

Geopolitical uncertainty and sovereign bond yields of BRICS economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sowmya Subramaniam
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Low Rate

Purpose The politically unstable economies have high and volatile sovereign spread. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on sovereign bond yields. Design/methodology/approach The sovereign yields at various maturities were decomposed into three factors, namely, level, slope and curvature, using the Dynamic Nelson Siegel model. The relationship between geopolitical uncertainty and the yield curve factors was examined using a quantile causality test. Findings The study found that at the extreme high-rate regime, geopolitical uncertainty causes the yield curve factors positively, indicating bond investors demand a higher return for geopolitical uncertainty. On the other hand, during extreme low-rate regime geopolitical causes the short- and medium-term factors negatively. The extreme low-rate regime indicates the period of economic slowdown. During this regime, the central banks try to reduce the short-term rates to stimulate growth. Originality/value This is one of the few papers that investigates the relationship between the geopolitical risk and sovereign bond yields at the various maturities and interest rate regimes. Understanding the relationship between the geopolitical risk and short-term rates would help the central banks the efficacy of their policy actions. The long-term rates are influenced by the global investor preferences; examining the relationship with the long-term rates would help the investors frame the trading strategies.

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