Tracking the Transmission Channels of Fiscal Deficit and Food Inflation Linkages: A Structural VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 165-172
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Agricultural Industry ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Transmission Channels ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

This empirical analysis aspired to unearth the transmission channels of fiscal deficit and food inflation linkages in the Indian perspective by reasonably exerting the data for 1991 to 2017. The precise results of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis proffered that there were three different mechanisms of transmission such as consumption, general inflation, and import channels that led to food inflation in response to the high fiscal deficit. The first channel revealed that government deficit spending had a positive impact on income which further led to food inflation through surging the household consumption expenditure. It was concluded that fiscal deficit passed through general inflation finally leading to a food price surge in the economy and seemed to work as cost-push inflation for the food and agricultural industry. The outcome also revealed that the impact of fiscal deficit passed to food inflation through external linkages such as import and export.

scholarly journals The Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Morocco: An SVAR Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Firdawss Tahri ◽  
Mohamed Karim
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Economic Balance ◽  
The Impact

Interest in assessing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on macroeconomic variables, especially on GDP, has surged in recent years, since it was expected to reestablish the economic balance after the recent recession. The majority of empirical studies estimate the impact of fiscal policy on economic activity using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. This paper analyzes the effect of fiscal shocks on economic activity by applying the structural VAR methodology proposed by Blanchard and Perotty (2002) to Moroccan data. The empirical findings are consistent with other studies related to emerging economies. This assessment reveals a positive impact of expansionary fiscal policy on economic activity. However, the fiscal multipliers are found to be very small, meaning that the economic activity is not significantly influenced by fiscal policy shocks.

How Does Public Debt Affect the Indian Macroeconomy? A Structural VAR Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-284
Author(s):  
Ranjan Kumar Mohanty ◽  
Sidheswar Panda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Adverse Impact ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Impact

The study investigates the macroeconomic effects of public debt in India during 1980–2017 using a structural vector autoregression framework. The objective is to examine the impact of public debt on the interest rate, investment, inflation and economic growth in India. The results of the impulse response functions show that public debt has an adverse impact on economic growth but a positive impact on the long-term interest rate in the short run and a mixed effect (both negative and positive) on investment and inflation. We also find that domestic debt has a more adverse impact on the economy than external debt. The estimated variance decomposition analysis finds that much of the variation in selected macro variables are explained by public debt and growth in India. This study suggests that public debt especially domestic debt should be controlled and channelled productively to have a favourable impact on the economy. JEL Classification: H63, O40, C40

scholarly journals Role of Zakat as Social Finance Catalyst to Islamic Banking and Economic Growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ai Nur Bayinah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
West Java ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Integration Analysis

This paper is aimed to assess the contribution of Zakat in boosting Islamic banks’ financing and economic growth for the period 2011-2015, in 10 district/city of West Java Province, Indonesia. Through Vector Autoregressive (VAR) panel co-integration analysis, variance decompositions (VD) and impulse response functions (IRF), this study investigates Zakat, Islamic Banking, and economic growth nexus. Findings in this research highlight that Zakat has a significant impact on Islamic banking, so this institution would contribute to economic growth both in the short and the long run, with fluctuation in variance from the first year. The results lend support to the view that Zakat not only leads to social benefits but also has a positive impact on the economy through increasing Islamic banks’ financing. Therefore, this research will serve as a motivation for the industry players and regulators to continuously promote Zakat as a strategic policy. The originality of this research is to assess Zakat-led growth and finance by analyzing the impact of Zakat on the Islamic banking and regional economic outcome. Another novel aspect of this study is in the methodology as it employs VAR panel co-integration analysis, VDs and IRFs on the set of annual data. Keywords: Zakat, Islamic Banking Financing, Economic Growth, West Java

HOW DOES BLOCKCHAIN PARTICIPATION AFFECT THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
YI LI ◽  
WEI ZHANG ◽  
PENGFEI WANG
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Theoretical Studies ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Impact

Taking the unique advantage of the cryptocurrency market setting, this paper examines the relationships between blockchain participation and returns, trading volume and realized volatility of main cryptocurrencies (i.e., Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin). Dissimilar to previous theoretical studies that model the influencing factors on participation, we employ the number of unique from addresses 1 as the proxy for cryptocurrency investors’ blockchain participation and further explore the impact of such participation. By using vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we find that the blockchain participation has a significant and positive impact on the next day’s trading volume and realized volatility for the main cryptocurrencies. Our results are robust to the Granger causality test and alternative measure for blockchain participation.

scholarly journals Causal nexus between fiscal deficit and economic growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam ◽  
Kasavarajah Mayandy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Impact

The impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth is one of the most widely debated issues among economists and policy makers in both developed and developing countries in the recent period. This paper seeks to examine the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in selected South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using time series annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modelling and Granger causality test under a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. The results from this study confirmed that the fiscal deficit has a negative impact on economic growth in the South Asian countries considered in this study except Nepal, which confirmed the positive impact. The results also highlighted that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed where fiscal deficit causes economic growth for Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, but the reverse is true for India and Sri Lanka.  

scholarly journals Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach to Evaluate the Impact of Electricity Generation Mix on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Iran

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 4268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahareh Oryani ◽  
Yoonmo Koo ◽  
Shahabaldin Rezania
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structural Vector

This research attempts to evaluate the impact of renewable electricity generation mix on economic growth and CO2 emissions in Iran from 1980 to 2016. In this regard, by using EViews 10, the Structural Vector Autoregressive model (SVAR) is estimated by imposing the Blanchard and Quah long-run restrictions. The yearly data on real Gross Domestic Production (GDP), the share of electricity generation from renewable sources, and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) caused by liquid, solid, and gaseous fuels were used. The positive impact of one standard deviation shock of increasing the share of renewable electricity on economic growth was confirmed by using Impulse Response Function (IRF). Contrary to the expectation, the share of renewable electricity in the energy mix is not at a desirable level to lower CO2 emissions, which partly could be explained by the dominant role of fossil fuel in Iran (as an energy-driven country). Moreover, the findings of Variance Decomposition (VD) verified the low share of electricity generated by renewable energy in explaining forecast error variations in economic growth and CO2 emissions. It indicates that in this stage of development, increasing the share of renewable electricity could not be considered as an appropriate strategy to control environmental issues. Therefore, initiating and implementing environmental policies could be considered as the most proper policies to lower CO2 emissions and to achieve the goal of sustainable development.

Asymmetric Effect of Fiscal Deficit on Current Account Deficit: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292110572
Author(s):  
Vishal Sharma ◽  
Masudul Hasan Adil ◽  
Sana Fatima ◽  
Ashok Mittal
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

This study has attempted to re-investigate the impact of fiscal deficit (FD) on current account deficit (CAD) (also known as twin deficit hypothesis) in India from 1970–1971 to 2018–2019 in the presence of private saving–investment gap (SI) and exchange rate (EXR). For the empirical investigation, the study has employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to cointegration. The NARDL results found the evidence of an asymmetric effect of FD, SI and EXR on CAD in the long run only. The obtained results support the traditional views of the Keynesian approach that FD has a positive impact on CAD, validates the existence of the ‘Twin Deficit Hypothesis’ in India. Further, results also depict that SI has a positive effect on CAD, whereas EXR has an adverse impact on CAD. From a policy standpoint, the asymmetric impact of FD on CAD provides strong reasons for conceiving policies that are adaptable to changing dynamics in internal as well as external sectors.

scholarly journals THE JANUS-FACED NATURE OF DEBT: RESULTS FROM A DATA-DRIVEN COINTEGRATED SVAR APPROACH

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-54
Author(s):  
Mattia Guerini ◽  
Alessio Moneta ◽  
Mauro Napoletano ◽  
Andrea Roventini
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Mortgage Debt ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of public and private debts on US output dynamics. We estimate a battery of Cointegrated Structural Vector Autoregressive models, and we identify structural shocks by employing Independent Component Analysis, a data-driven technique which avoids ad-hoc identification choices. The econometric results suggest that the impact of debt on economic activity isJanus-faced. Public debt shocks have positive and persistent influence on economic activity. In contrast, rising private debt has a milder positive impact on gross domestic product, but it fades out over time. The analysis of the possible transmission mechanisms reveals that public debtcrowds inprivate consumption and investment. In contrast, mortgage debt fuels consumption and output in the short-run, but shrinks them in the medium-run.

scholarly journals Fiscal Deficit and its effects on economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-70
Author(s):  
Nexhat H. Kryeziu ◽  
Egzon Hoxha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Growth Ratio ◽  
The Impact

The main purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the deficit on GDP growth for the Eurozone area, using panel data for a period from 1995 to 2015, with a total of 257 observations. In order to conduct the study and come up with results, we have used a multiple linear regression model with the least-squares regression. Consequently, in order to test the data used in the model, we have applied diagnostic tests, such as the Durbin-Watson test to analyze the correlation of serial correlation, as well as the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroskedasticity. The test results prove that there is no heteroskedasticity and at the same time there are strong indications that the model has no relation between serial correlation. The results presented in our study show that the variables, deficit ratio to GDP, is statistically significant with a positive sign and as a result, we have the growth of the deficit ratio with GDP having a positive impact on the economic growth ratio. Keywords: Fiscal deficit, GDP Growth Rate, Correlation, Regression

Impact of Infrastructure Development on the Ports of India's Western Coast

2002 ◽  
Vol 37 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Prabha Shastri Ranade
Keyword(s):  
Iron Ore ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Major Step ◽  
The West ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
The Impact

Commissioning of Konkan railway along the west coast in January 1998 was a major step towards infrastructure development in India. Completion of Konkan railway has provided impetus for the development of the coastal areas by connecting the major ports. The ports which are directly benefited by the completion of Konkan railway are: JNPT (Nhava Sheva), Mormugao and Mangalore. This paper aims to study the impact of infrastructure development, i.e. commissioning of Konkan railway on these three ports. The imports and exports from these ports prior to construction of Konkan railway are compared with the latest (2000-01) statistics of import and export. The changes in the volume and composition of traffic of these ports as a consequence of their increased accessibility are analysed. The share of the three ports in India's export trade is much more than in its import trade. Over half of India's exports of iron ore, over one third of the country's exports of POL products and one fourth of the exports of other liquids were handled by these three ports in 2000-01. Our analysis reveals that infrastructure development at and around the ports of western coast has a positive impact on the traffic handled by these ports. Value and volume of traffic handled by these ports have increased. With the improvement in infrastructure facilities for handling the specialised cargo, the import and export of liquid bulk cargo have significantly increased. The impact is most remarkable in case of JNPT. where the exports have increased at a higher rate than the imports. The improved connectivity of western coastal ports after the construction of Konkan railway has helped to relieve the congestion at the Mumbai port. With infrastructure development at ports and improvement in goods traffic handled by Konkan railway in due course of time, traffic at these ports will be further augmented.

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