EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF FDI ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-116
Author(s):  
Liza Alili Sulejmani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Republic Of Macedonia ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

The importance of FDI on the economic growth of a country is widely accepted fact among the scholars and policymakers, beside of the existing debate regarding the strength of its impact and the level of the development of a country.In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of FDI on the Macedonian economy, through the co-integration and VECM methodology. In addition, this study analyzes the impact of FDI in the short-run and long-run period in the Republic of Macedonia, utilizing quarterly time series data for the period 1998 – 2017. Moreover, time series are tested for unit root by employing the Augmented Dickey Fuller test, demonstrating that variables contain unit root in their level, while are stationary in their first difference.Secondly, Granger causality test is used in order to investigate the causal relationship among FDI and real GDP growth rate in Republic of Macedonia for 1998q1-2017q2, by suggesting unidirectional causal relationship among these variables.Last but not least, this study investigates the existence of significant relationship between FDI and economic growth in the context of the Macedonian economy, in both long – run and short – run time period.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PALESTINE

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Osaid Nasser Abdaljawwad ◽  
Tamat Sarmidi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of private sector investment on economic growth in Palestine using quarterly time series data from 1990-2015. Multiple regression and co-integration methods are employed to analyse the data. The objectives of this study are to analyse the trends of private investment and economic growth in Palestine from 1990­-2015 and to examine the impact of private sector investment on economic. Being a time series data, to avoid spurious regression results, the first step is to test for the stationarity of the data by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Then ordinary least square (OLS) regression technique is used to estimate of each independent variable effect on the dependent variable. Test the stationary of the error term is done to test the long run co-integration among variables. The result of stationarity and normality test will reveal that the model is fairly well specified and could be used for policy analysis or not. The co-integration test result will indicate that private sector investment and economic growth have a long run significant effect on one another. The unit root tests, which conducted, confirm that variables are stationary in first difference and the co-integration tests also confirm the existence of long term relationship between the variables. The findings of the study concluded that there exist a short-run and long run relationship between private sector investment and economic growth in Palestine. This study recommends the Palestinian government to promote and encourage both domestic and foreign direct investment. The investment policy should be more transparent, attractive and competitive

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1439-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Maryam Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

Research publications and economic growth in South Africa: an empirical investigation

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 662-675
Author(s):  
Nicholas M Odhiambo ◽  
Lydia Ntenga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Publications ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between research publications and economic growth – using time-series data from South Africa. The paper attempts to answer two critical questions: is there a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa? Do research publications from South African researchers Granger-cause economic growth? Design/methodology/approach – Unlike some of the previous studies, the current paper uses a trivariate ECM-based Granger-causality model to examine this linkage. Specifically, the study incorporates education as an intermittent variable between research and economic growth. In addition, the paper uses the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing procedure, which has numerous advantages, especially when the sample size is small. Findings – The results of this study show that there is a long-run relationship between research publications and economic growth in South Africa. The results also show that there is a distinct causal flow from research publications to economic growth in South Africa. This applies both in the short-run and in the long-run. Other results also show that: there is a short-run bidirectional causality between research publications and education; and there is a short-run bi-directional causality between education and economic growth, but a long-run unidirectional causal flow from education to economic growth. Practical implications – The findings of this paper underscore the crucial role that research plays in economic growth and development. Overall, the findings of this study show that research in South Africa is pro-growth. This implies that the recent significant increase in government expenditure on research and innovation, which is aimed at increasing the country’s scientific research outputs, is likely to pay off. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first of its kind to examine in detail the dynamic causal relationship between research outputs and economic growth in South Africa – using the recently developed ARDL-bounds testing approach within a trivariate setting.

scholarly journals China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, Logistics Developments and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Logistics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Zunaira Khadim ◽  
Irem Batool ◽  
Muhammad Bilal Lodhi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Factor Inputs ◽  
The Impact

The study aims to analyze the impact of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) logistics-related developments on economic growth in Pakistan. The study defined a Cobb–Douglas type of research framework in which the country’s real income level relates to four factor inputs, e.g., employed labor force, logistics development, financial development, and energy consumption in an economy. The study utilized the time series data set for the period 1972–2018. To estimate the long run relationship and short run adjustment mechanism, the study used Johansen’s method of co-integration and error correction model. Estimated results showed that the country’s logistics developments have a significant positive impact on economic growth in both the long run and the short run. It implies that China–Pakistan collaborative efforts for logistics developments will have a strong positive impact on economic growth in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Public Debt, Current Account Deficit and Economic Growth: A Study on Indian Context

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-601
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Internal Debt

External debt and internal debt form main components of the public debt structure in India. India’s debt profile shows increasing external debt and simultaneously increasing the deficit in current account which have impact on economic growth of India. Our study assesses the impact of India’s Gross External Debt (GED), Internal Debt (IND) and Current Account Deficit (CAD) on economic growth (GDP) by using time series data from 1998-99 to 2018-19. We intend to find long-run as well as short run relationship between the variables with the help of Eviews software. Stationarity of data is tested by considering Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test statistics and used Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result shows co-integration among the variables with one equation. The result of VECM shows existence of long-run relationship among the variables. But the study fails to find the short-run causality among the variables. The results show external debt (GED), internal debt (IND), and Current Account Deficit (CAD) have negative and statistically insignificant relationship with GDP. It shows increase in public debt and deficit in current account results in decrease in GDP growth.

scholarly journals Nexus between Economic Growth, Tourism Revenue and Financial Development in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 134
Author(s):  
Syeda Sumaiya Habib ◽  
Md. Shahanawaz Sharif ◽  
Mohammad Amzad Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tourism Revenue

The main objective of this study is to analyze the nexus between economic growth, tourism revenue, and financial development in Bangladesh. This paper uses time series data from 1995 to 2016. Advance technique of time series analysis: Johansen Cointegration Approach is used to test the Cointegration among variables. Moreover, the Vector Error Correction (VECM) has been applied to study the long run and short run association among variables. The outcome of this study reveals that the tourism revenue and financial development has positive impact on economic growth in the long run. Variance decomposition and impulse response function also supports the positive association. According to the estimation of Granger Causality also reveals the unilateral direction in short run economic growth to tourism revenue. Providing more credit by financial sector to invest more on infrastructure and promoting Bangladesh as well as insuring proper security for foreign visitors would increase the revenue of this sector, which in turn stimulates economic growth of the country.

scholarly journals Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Rwanda: 1961-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Ruranga ◽  
Daniel S. Ruturwa ◽  
Valens Rwema
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of trade on economic growth in Rwanda. This paper uses exports and imports for trade and gross domestic product for economic growth. Research questions were formulated as (1) Are exports, imports and economic growth cointegrated? (2) Is there a long or short run relationship between those Variables? (3) Are there any causal relationships between factors (4) what the direction of the causality is it? Annual time series data from World Development Indicators for the period from 1961 to 2018 have been used. The methods of linear regression for estimation of Vector Auto regressions models have been used. Our findings established that VAR was appropriate model, and GDP, Exports were stationary at first differences while Imports was stationary at second difference but not at levels. Hence the two series were integrated of order one and the third one was integrated of order two. Tests of cointegration indicates that the three variables were not cointegrated, implying there was no long run equilibrium relationship between the three series. The causality test indicated that exports and imports influenced GDP. On the other hand, we found that there was a strong evidence of unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth. However, there was bidirectional causality between GDP and imports. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, were seen as the source of economic growth in Rwanda.

scholarly journals DOES TRADE OPENNESS PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH? THE CASE OF SUDAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (Volume 2) ◽  
pp. 123-132
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Sudan. The study utilizes annual time series data from 1972 to 2019. The study adopts the unit root test. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model has been used as an estimation technique. The results indicate that trade openness has a positive significant impact on the economic growth in short run. However, the impact is negative in the long run. When the long-run and short-run elasticity were compared the trade-led growth hypothesis was not found. It can be argued that the country is specialized in production of low-quality products and exporting primary products therefore the economic growth is negatively affected by trade openness. Moreover, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis results provide evidence against the existence of the hypothesis indicating that the country is still below the desired level of income. The study suggests that a country should promote the industrial sector which will help to export manufactured products and therefore will increase the productivity.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document