A New Method for Calculating Modeling Errors of Archimedes Hobs

A new method for the analysis of fire spread modeling errors

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf02004 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 193 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Francis M. Fujioka

Keyword(s):

Probability Model ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Fire Spread ◽

New Method ◽

Ratio Error ◽

Spread Model ◽

San Bernardino ◽

Modeling Errors ◽

Operational Tool

Fire spread models have a long history, and their use will continue to grow as they evolve from a research tool to an operational tool. This paper describes a new method to analyse two-dimensional fire spread modeling errors, particularly to quantify the uncertainties of fire spread predictions. Measures of error are defined from the respective spread distances of the actual and simulated fires at specified points around their perimeters. A ratio error provides a correction factor for the spread model bias. The characteristics of the error are defined by a probability model, which is used to construct error bounds on fire spread predictions. The method is applied to the Bee Fire, which burned 3848 ha on the San Bernardino National Forest, California, in summer 1996. The study focused on the early, presuppression stages of the fire. A mesoscale spectral model was used to simulate weather conditions on a grid interval of 2 km. The FARSITE system was used to simulate fire growth during the first 105 min of the fire. The case study showed how difficult fire spread modeling is under the conditions presented by the Bee Fire.

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Selective Sampling and Orientation of Non-Homogeneous Tissues

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100100238 ◽

1968 ◽

Vol 26 ◽

pp. 98-99

Author(s):

C. C. Clawson ◽

L. W. Anderson ◽

R. A. Good

Keyword(s):

Electron Microscopy ◽

Electron Microscope ◽

Light Microscopy ◽

Random Sampling ◽

New Method ◽

Microscope Examination ◽

Small Areas ◽

Selective Sampling ◽

Large Numbers ◽

Specific Orientation

Investigations which require electron microscope examination of a few specific areas of non-homogeneous tissues make random sampling of small blocks an inefficient and unrewarding procedure. Therefore, several investigators have devised methods which allow obtaining sample blocks for electron microscopy from region of tissue previously identified by light microscopy of present here techniques which make possible: 1) sampling tissue for electron microscopy from selected areas previously identified by light microscopy of relatively large pieces of tissue; 2) dehydration and embedding large numbers of individually identified blocks while keeping each one separate; 3) a new method of maintaining specific orientation of blocks during embedding; 4) special light microscopic staining or fluorescent procedures and electron microscopy on immediately adjacent small areas of tissue.

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