scholarly journals A Comparative Study of GRACE with Continental Evapotranspiration Estimates in Australian Semi-Arid and Arid Basins: Sensitivity to Climate Variability and Extremes

Water ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Shen ◽  
Marc Leblanc ◽  
Frédéric Frappart ◽  
Lucia Seoane ◽  
Damien O’Grady ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Semi Arid

Forecasting the impacts of climate variability: lessons from the rainfed corn market in Ceará, Brazil

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 201-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARIASTER B. CHIMELI ◽  
FRANCISCO DE ASSIS DE SOUZA FILHO ◽  
MARCOS COSTA HOLANDA ◽  
FRANCIS CARLO PETTERINI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The World ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Climatic Impacts ◽  
Semi Arid

ABSTRACTA number of studies show that climatic shocks have significant economic impacts in several regions of the world, especially in, but not limited to, developing economies. In this paper we focus on a drought-related indicator of well-being and emergency spending in the Brazilian semi-arid zone – rainfed corn market – and estimate aggregate behavioral and forecast models for this market conditional on local climate determinants. We find encouraging evidence that our approach can help policy makers buy time to help them prepare for drought mitigating actions. The analysis is applicable to economies elsewhere in the world and climatic impacts other than those caused by droughts.

scholarly journals CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: FARMER PERCEPTIONS AND UNDERSTANDING OF INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY IN RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RISK IN SEMI-ARID KENYA

2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. P. C. RAO ◽  
W. G. NDEGWA ◽  
K. KIZITO ◽  
A. OYOO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Climate Variability And Change ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Probabilistic Nature ◽  
Semi Arid

SUMMARYThis study examines farmers’ perceptions of short- and long-term variability in climate, their ability to discern trends in climate and how the perceived trends converge with actual weather observations in five districts of Eastern Province in Kenya where the climate is semi-arid with high intra- and inter-annual variability in rainfall. Field surveys to elicit farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change were conducted in Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Mwingi and Mutomo districts. Long-term rainfall records from five meteorological stations within a 10 km radius from the survey locations were obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department and were analysed to compare with farmers’ observations. Farmers’ responses indicate that they are well aware of the general climate in their location, its variability, the probabilistic nature of the variability and the impacts of this variability on crop production. However, their ability to synthesize the knowledge they have gained from their observations and discern long-term trends in the probabilistic distribution of seasonal conditions is more subjective, mainly due to the compounding interactions between climate and other factors such as soil fertility, soil water and land use change that determine the climate's overall influence on crop productivity. There is a general tendency among the farmers to give greater weight to negative impacts leading to higher risk perception. In relation to long-term changes in the climate, farmer observations in our study that rainfall patterns are changing corroborated well with reported perceptions from other places across the African continent but were not supported by the observed trends in rainfall data from the five study locations. The main implication of our findings is the need to be aware of and account for the risk during the development and promotion of technologies involving significant investments by smallholder farmers and exercise caution in interpreting farmers’ perceptions about long-term climate variability and change.

scholarly journals Global vegetation variability and its response to elevated CO<sub>2</sub>, global warming, and climate variability – a study using the offline SSiB4/TRIFFID model and satellite data

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Liu ◽  
Yongkang Xue ◽  
Glen MacDonald ◽  
Peter Cox ◽  
Zhengqiu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Arid Areas ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Vegetation Fraction ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Semi Arid

Abstract. The climate regime shift during the 1980s had a substantial impact on the terrestrial ecosystems and vegetation at different scales. However, the mechanisms driving vegetation changes, before and after the shift, remain unclear. In this study, we used a biophysical dynamic vegetation model to estimate large-scale trends in terms of carbon fixation, vegetation growth, and expansion during the period 1958–2007, and to attribute these changes to environmental drivers including elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter eCO2), global warming, and climate variability (hereafter CV). Simulated leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary production (GPP) were evaluated against observation-based data. Significant spatial correlations are found (correlations > 0.87), along with regionally varying temporal correlations of 0.34–0.80 for LAI and 0.45–0.83 for GPP. More than 40 % of the global land area shows significant positive (increase) or negative (decrease) trends in LAI and GPP during 1958–2007. Regions over the globe show different characteristics in terms of ecosystem trends before and after the 1980s. While 11.7 % and 19.3 % of land have had consistently positive LAI and GPP trends, respectively, since 1958, 17.1 % and 20.1 % of land saw LAI and GPP trends, respectively, reverse during the 1980s. Vegetation fraction cover (FRAC) trends, representing vegetation expansion and/or shrinking, are found at the edges of semi-arid areas and polar areas. Environmental drivers affect the change in ecosystem trend over different regions. Overall, eCO2 consistently contributes to positive LAI and GPP trends in the tropics. Global warming mostly affects LAI, with positive effects in high latitudes and negative effects in subtropical semi-arid areas. CV is found to dominate the variability of FRAC, LAI, and GPP in the semi-humid and semi-arid areas. The eCO2 and global warming effects increased after the 1980s, while the CV effect reversed during the 1980s. In addition, plant competition is shown to have played an important role in determining which driver dominated the regional trends. This paper presents new insight into ecosystem variability and changes in the varying climate since the 1950s.

Assessing the impact of climate variability on maize using simulation modeling under semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (28) ◽  
pp. 28413-28430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishfaq Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Habib ur Rahman ◽  
Shakeel Ahmed ◽  
Jamshad Hussain ◽  
Asmat Ullah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Arid Environment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Semi Arid
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