Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin of Pakistan and India

Climate change is one of the most discussed issues affecting the environment nowadays. Many researchers have been agreed that the increase in temperature in comparison to the previous century is due to anthropologically related activities, though there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon. This paper reviews the impact of climate change by assessing the trend of annual and monthly rainfall and representing spatial variability over the Orsang river basin in Narmada lower river basin in the state of Gujarat, India. This will be helpful to study the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources, and planning & management of water resources, environmental protection, and ecological balance over the orsang river basin, India.

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Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.283 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Saira Munawar ◽

Muhammad Naveed Tahir ◽

Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Baseline Period ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Mean Annual Precipitation ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Global Issue ◽

Jhelum River ◽

Jhelum River Basin

Abstract Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. This study investigated climate change by incorporating GCM (CCSM4) using the SDSM method for RCPs in the Jhelum river basin. Historical climatic data were coupled with Aphrodite data to cope with the scarcity of weather stations. SDSM was calibrated for the period 1976–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2015 using R2 and RMSE. Future climatic indicators were downscaled and debiased using the MB-BC method. The de-biased downscaled data and MODIS data were used to simulate discharge of Jhelum river basin using SRM. Simulated discharge was compared with measured discharge by using Dv% and NSE. The R2 and RMSE for SDSM range between 0.89–0.95 and 0.8–1.02 for temperature and 0.86–0.96 and 0.57–1.02 for precipitation. Projections depicted a rising trend of 1.5 °C to 3.8 °C in temperature, 2–7% in mean annual precipitation and 3.3–7.4% in discharge for 2100 as compared to the baseline period. Results depicted an increasing trend for climatic indicators and discharge due to climate change for the basin.

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Hydrological Modeling of the Astore River Basin, Pakistan, by Integrating Snow and Glacier Melt Processes and Climate Scenarios

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2021.p1197 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. 1197-1206

Author(s):

Sohaib Baig ◽

Takahiro Sayama ◽

Kaoru Takara ◽

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...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Indus River ◽

River Flows ◽

Glacier Melt ◽

Indus River Basin ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The upper Indus River basin has large masses of glaciers that supply meltwater in the summer. Water resources from the upper Indus River basin are crucial for human activities and ecosystems in Pakistan, but they are vulnerable to climate change. This study focuses on the impacts of climate change, particularly the effects of receding glaciers on the water resources in a catchment of the upper Indus river basin. This study predicts river flow using a hydrologic model coupled with temperature-index snow and glacier melt models forced by observed climate data. The basin is divided into seven elevation zones so that the melt components and rainfall-runoff were calculated at each elevation zone. Hydrologic modeling revealed that glaciers contributed one-third of the total flow while snowmelt melt contributed about 40%; rainfall contributed to the remaining flow. Some climate scenarios based on CMIP5 and CORDEX were employed to quantify the impacts of climate change on annual river flows. The glacier retreat in the mid and late centuries is also considered based on climate change scenarios. Future river flows, simulated by the hydrologic model, project significant changes in their quantity and timing. In the mid-century, river flows will increase because of higher precipitation and glacier melt. Simulations projected that until 2050, the overall river flows will increase by 11%, and no change in the shape of the hydrograph is expected. However, this increasing trend in river flows will reverse in the late century because glaciers will not have enough mass to sustain the glacier melt flow. The change will result in a 4.5% decrease in flow, and the timing of the monthly peak flow will shift from June to May. This earlier shift in the streamflow will make water management more difficult in the future, requiring inclusive approaches in water resource management.

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Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Indrawati River Basin, Nepal

Environmental Earth Sciences ◽

10.1007/s12665-015-5150-8 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 75 (4) ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Sangam Shrestha ◽

Manish Shrestha ◽

Mukand. S. Babel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrology And Water Resources ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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