scholarly journals The Impact of the Uncertain Input Data of Multi-Purpose Reservoir Volumes under Hydrological Extremes

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1389
Author(s):  
Stanislav Paseka ◽  
Daniel Marton
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Water Losses ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Storage Volume ◽  
Water Volumes ◽  
Uncertain Input Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Aleatoric Uncertainty

The topic of uncertainties in water management tasks is a very extensive and highly discussed one. It is generally based on the theory that uncertainties comprise epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. This work deals with the comprehensive determination of the functional water volumes of a reservoir during extreme hydrological events under conditions of aleatoric uncertainty described as input data uncertainties. In this case, the input data uncertainties were constructed using the Monte Carlo method and applied to the data employed in the water management solution of the reservoir: (i) average monthly water inflows, (ii) hydrographs, (iii) bathygraphic curves and (iv) water losses by evaporation and dam seepage. To determine the storage volume of the reservoir, a simulation-optimization model of the reservoir was developed, which uses the balance equation of the reservoir to determine its optimal storage volume. For the second hydrological extreme, a simulation model for the transformation of flood discharges was developed, which works on the principle of the first order of the reservoir differential equation. By linking the two models, it is possible to comprehensively determine the functional volumes of the reservoir in terms of input data uncertainties. The practical application of the models was applied to a case study of the Vír reservoir in the Czech Republic, which fulfils the purpose of water storage and flood protection. The obtained results were analyzed in detail to verify whether the reservoir is sufficiently resistant to current hydrological extremes and also to suggest a redistribution of functional volumes of the reservoir under conditions of measurement uncertainty.

scholarly journals Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: Probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Oberndorfer ◽  
Philip Sander ◽  
Sven Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Added Value ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Mountain hazard risk analysis for transport infrastructure is regularly based on deterministic approaches. Due to a variety of variables and data needed for risk computation, a considerable degree of epistemic uncertainty results. Consequently, input data needed for risk assessment is normally processed as mean values with or without scatter, or as an individual deterministic value from expert judgement if no statistical data is available. To overcome this gap, we used a probabilistic approach to express the potential bandwidth of input data with two different distribution functions, taking a mountain road in the Eastern European Alps as case study. The risk assessment included the damage potential of road infrastructure and traffic exposed to a multi-hazard environment (torrent processes, snow avalanches, rock fall). Reliable quantiles of the calculated probability density distributions attributed to the aggregated road risk due to the impact of multiple-mountain hazards were compared to the deterministic results from the standard guidelines on road safety. The results clearly show that with common deterministic approaches risk is significantly underestimated in comparison to a probabilistic risk modelling setup, mainly due to epistemic uncertainties of the input data. The study provides added value to further develop standardized road safety guidelines and may therefore be of particular importance for road authorities and political decision-makers.

Economic incentives encourage farmers to improve water management in California

Water Policy ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Wichelns
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Program Implementation ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Irrigation District ◽  
Drain Water ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
San Joaquin River ◽  
Water Volumes ◽  
Individual Use

Economic incentives are used in many situations to motivate improvements in the use of scarce resources. In some areas, implementing appropriate incentives is made challenging by the nature of existing institutions or the inability to assign property rights and measure individual use of key resources. Higher prices for irrigation water can motivate wiser use of water in regions where the opportunity cost of water is rising, due to increasing municipal, industrial and environmental demands. This paper describes how an increasing block-rate pricing structure was designed and implemented in an irrigation district in central California. The goals of the program were to improve water management practices and reduce the volume of subsurface drain water discharged into the San Joaquin River. Results describing reductions in average irrigation depths and drain water volumes, collected throughout the 1990s, demonstrate the potential for achieving resource management goals with economic incentives that motivate changes in farm-level management practices. Complementary incentive programs and issues regarding program implementation and the sustainability of drain water reduction efforts in an arid region also are discussed.

scholarly journals Co-Simulation Framework for Optimal Allocation and Power Management of DGs in Power Distribution Networks Based on Computational Intelligence Techniques

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (14) ◽  
pp. 1648
Author(s):  
Marinko Barukčić ◽  
Toni Varga ◽  
Vedrana Jerković Jerković Štil ◽  
Tin Benšić
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Power Management ◽  
Computational Intelligence ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Distribution Networks ◽  
Distributed Generations ◽  
Data Resolution ◽  
The Impact

The paper researches the impact of the input data resolution on the solution of optimal allocation and power management of controllable and non-controllable renewable energy sources distributed generation in the distribution power system. Computational intelligence techniques and co-simulation approach are used, aiming at more realistic system modeling and solving the complex optimization problem. The optimization problem considers the optimal allocation of all distributed generations and the optimal power control of controllable distributed generations. The co-simulation setup employs a tool for power system analysis and a metaheuristic optimizer to solve the optimization problem. Three different resolutions of input data (generation and load profiles) are used: hourly, daily, and monthly averages over one year. An artificial neural network is used to estimate the optimal output of controllable distributed generations and thus significantly decrease the dimensionality of the optimization problem. The proposed procedure is applied on a 13 node test feeder proposed by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. The obtained results show a huge impact of the input data resolution on the optimal allocation of distributed generations. Applying the proposed approach, the energy losses are decreased by over 50–70% by the optimal allocation and control of distributed generations depending on the tested network.

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Müller ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRhön aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rhön in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km² and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5°x0.5° (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> on evapotranspiration and thus runoff.   </p><p>The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.</p><p>To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.</p>

scholarly journals Water Accounting Plus (WA+) – a water accounting procedure for complex river basins based on satellite measurements

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2459-2472 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Karimi ◽  
W. G. M. Bastiaanssen ◽  
D. Molden
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Water Depletion ◽  
Water Accounting ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Coping with water scarcity and growing competition for water among different sectors requires proper water management strategies and decision processes. A pre-requisite is a clear understanding of the basin hydrological processes, manageable and unmanageable water flows, the interaction with land use and opportunities to mitigate the negative effects and increase the benefits of water depletion on society. Currently, water professionals do not have a common framework that links depletion to user groups of water and their benefits. The absence of a standard hydrological and water management summary is causing confusion and wrong decisions. The non-availability of water flow data is one of the underpinning reasons for not having operational water accounting systems for river basins in place. In this paper, we introduce Water Accounting Plus (WA+), which is a new framework designed to provide explicit spatial information on water depletion and net withdrawal processes in complex river basins. The influence of land use and landscape evapotranspiration on the water cycle is described explicitly by defining land use groups with common characteristics. WA+ presents four sheets including (i) a resource base sheet, (ii) an evapotranspiration sheet, (iii) a productivity sheet, and (iv) a withdrawal sheet. Every sheet encompasses a set of indicators that summarise the overall water resources situation. The impact of external (e.g., climate change) and internal influences (e.g., infrastructure building) can be estimated by studying the changes in these WA+ indicators. Satellite measurements can be used to acquire a vast amount of required data but is not a precondition for implementing WA+ framework. Data from hydrological models and water allocation models can also be used as inputs to WA+.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Environmental Loss Ratio: Evidence from Taiwanese Insurance Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (03) ◽  
pp. 1850020
Author(s):  
Li-Hua Lai ◽  
Ching-Hao Chen ◽  
Tung-Cheng Chang
Keyword(s):  
Input Data ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Environmental Condition ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Factor ◽  
Environmental Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insurance Data

Environmental insurance (EI) protections help resolve the firm-industry economic loss problem. However, the loss ratio of EI is positively affected by itself from one period ahead. The positive and negative effects of macroeconomic factor on the loss ratio of EIs are not necessarily consistent, but they are dependent on the effect of the year’s environmental condition. The economic variables affecting the loss ratio of EI are quite inconsistent, so insurance prices and liability reserves should be modified every year. While the investigations are the special properties of our input data of Taiwan, the prescription of this paper could provide cross-references with other countries.

Biological Aspects of Water Management

1989 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-240
Author(s):  
L. G. Cook ◽  
K. M. Harrower ◽  
A. P. Mackey
Keyword(s):  
Waste Water ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Recreational Fisheries ◽  
Domestic Waste ◽  
Biological Aspects ◽  
Water Treatments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Microbiological Aspects

This paper firstly reviews the microbiological aspects of the accumulation of xenobiotic and non-xenobiotic substances from industrial and domestic waste water treatments, with particular reference to hydrocarbons, pesticides and inorganic plant nutrients. The paper goes on to argue that if water bodies are to be used to establish recreational fisheries as well as for water supply and effluent disposal, then the management aim may need to be one of controlled eutrophy. Ramifications of this proposal are considered. The biological aspects of the impact of other recreational and amenity uses of water bodies on water and environmental quality is briefly described. The paper concludes by discussing the training required by potential water managers.

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

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