scholarly journals Scenario-Based Real-Time Flood Prediction with Logistic Regression

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1191
Author(s):  
Jaeyeong Lee ◽  
Byunghyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Flood Probability ◽  
Period Duration ◽  
Great Damage

This study proposed a real-time flood extent prediction method to shorten the time it takes from the flood occurrence to an alert issuance. This method uses logistic regression to generate a flood probability discriminant for each grid constituting the study area, and then predicts the flood extent with the amount of runoff caused by rainfall. In order to generate the flood probability discriminant for each grid, a two-dimensional (2D) flood inundation model was verified by applying the Typhoon Chaba, which caused great damage to the study area in 2016. Then, 100 probability rainfall scenarios were created by combining the return period, duration, and time distribution using past observation rainfall data, and rainfall-runoff–inundation relation databases were built for each scenario by applying hydrodynamic and hydrological models. A flood probability discriminant based on logistic regression was generated for each grid by using whether the grid was flooded (1 or 0) for the runoff amount in the database. When the runoff amount is input to the generated discriminant, the flood probability on the target grid is calculated by the coefficients, so that the flood extent is quickly predicted. The proposed method predicted the flood extent in a few seconds in both cases and showed high accuracy with 83.6~98.4% and 74.4~99.1%, respectively, in the application of scenario rainfall and actual rainfall.

scholarly journals Framework for Offline Flood Inundation Forecasts for Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Models

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Punit Bhola ◽  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Markus Disse
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
Database Queries ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Online Maps ◽  
The City ◽  
Selection Of

The paper presents a new methodology for hydrodynamic-based flood forecast that focuses on scenario generation and database queries to select appropriate flood inundation maps in real-time. In operational flood forecasting, only discharges are forecasted at specific gauges using hydrological models. Hydrodynamic models, which are required to produce inundation maps, are computationally expensive, hence not feasible for real-time inundation forecasting. In this study, we have used a substantial number of pre-calculated inundation maps that are stored in a database and a methodology to extract the most likely maps in real-time. The method uses real-time discharge forecast at upstream gauge as an input and compares it with the pre-recorded scenarios. The results show satisfactory agreements between offline inundation maps that are retrieved from a pre-recorded database and online maps, which are hindcasted using historical events. Furthermore, this allows an efficient early warning system, thanks to the fast run-time of the proposed offline selection of inundation maps. The framework is validated in the city of Kulmbach in Germany.

scholarly journals Comment on “Can assimilation of crowdsourced data in hydrological modelling improve flood prediction?” by Mazzoleni et al. (2017)

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele P. Viero
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Irregular Frequency ◽  
Crowdsourced Data ◽  
Internal States ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Citizen science and crowdsourcing are gaining increasing attention among hydrologists. In a recent contribution, Mazzoleni et al. (2017) investigated the integration of crowdsourced data (CSD) into hydrological models to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasts. The authors used synthetic CSD (i.e. not actually measured), because real CSD were not available at the time of the study. In their work, which is a proof-of-concept study, Mazzoleni et al. (2017) showed that assimilation of CSD improves the overall model performance; the impact of irregular frequency of available CSD, and that of data uncertainty, were also deeply assessed. However, the use of synthetic CSD in conjunction with (semi-)distributed hydrological models deserves further discussion. As a result of equifinality, poor model identifiability, and deficiencies in model structure, internal states of (semi-)distributed models can hardly mimic the actual states of complex systems away from calibration points. Accordingly, the use of synthetic CSD that are drawn from model internal states under best-fit conditions can lead to overestimation of the effectiveness of CSD assimilation in improving flood prediction. Operational flood forecasting, which results in decisions of high societal value, requires robust knowledge of the model behaviour and an in-depth assessment of both model structure and forcing data. Additional guidelines are given that are useful for the a priori evaluation of CSD for real-time flood forecasting and, hopefully, for planning apt design strategies for both model calibration and collection of CSD.

scholarly journals Flood inundation simulations based on GSMaP satellite rainfall data in Jakarta, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Adhi Priyambodoho ◽  
Shuichi Kure ◽  
Ryuusei Yagi ◽  
Nurul Fajar Januriyadi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Concentration Time ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Hourly Observation

AbstractJakarta is the capital of Indonesia and is considered one of the most vulnerable cities to climate-related disasters, including flooding, sea-level rise, and storm surges. Therefore, the development of a flood-forecasting system for Jakarta is crucial. However, the accurate prediction of flooding in Jakarta is challenging because of the short flood concentration time in highly urbanized basins and the shortage of rainfall data in poorly gauged areas. The aim of this study is to simulate recent flood inundation using global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP) products. The GSMaP products (NRT and Gauge V7) were evaluated and compared with hourly observation data from five ground stations in the Ciliwung River Basin. In addition, a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model was applied to the target basin. The results of the analysis showed that the GSMaP Gauge data were more accurate than the GSMaP NRT data. However, the GSMaP Gauge cannot be used to provide real-time rainfall data and is, therefore, inadequate for real-time flood forecasting. We conclude that the GSMaP Gauge is suitable for replicating past flood events, but it is challenging to use the GSMaP NRT for real-time flood forecasting in Jakarta.

scholarly journals Dynamic Flood Inundation Forecast for the City of Kulmbach Using Offline Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Models

10.29007/c4gq ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Punit Bhola ◽  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Iris Konnerth ◽  
Kanwal Amin ◽  
Markus Disse
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
Database Queries ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Inundation Map ◽  
The City

The paper presents a new methodology for hydrodynamic-based flood forecast focusing on sce- nario generation and database queries to select the appropriate flood inundation map in real-time. In operational flood forecasting, discharges are forecast at specific gauges using hydrological models. The water levels are obtained from a rating curve designed for each respective gauge. Particularly for higher discharges when the flow over-spills the side banks, these curves are highly uncertain. Hy- drodynamic models are then required to produce realistic inundation maps and water levels. Hydro- dynamic models are computationally expensive and therefore not feasible for real-time forecasting. Alternatively, pre-calculated inundation maps can be stored in a database which contains a substantial number of scenarios, and used for extracting the most likely map in real-time. This study investigates the application of offline inundation forecast in the city Kulmbach in Germany.

Flood Inundation Simulations based on GSMaP Satellite Rainfall Data in Jakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Adhi Priyambodoho ◽  
Shuichi Kure ◽  
Ryuusei Yagi ◽  
Nurul Fajar Januriyadi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Concentration Time ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia and is considered as one of the most vulnerable cities to climate-related disasters, including flooding, sea-level rise, and storm surge, in the world. Therefore, the development of a flood-forecasting system for Jakarta is crucial. However, the accurate prediction of flooding in Jakarta is challenging because of the rapid flood-concentration time in highly urbanized basins and the shortage of rainfall data in poorly gauged areas. The aim of this study is to simulate flood inundation that occurred in recent years using global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP) products. The GSMaP products (NRT and Gauge V7) were evaluated and compared with the observation data obtained hourly from five ground stations in the Ciliwung River Basin. In addition, a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model were applied to the target basin. The results of the analysis showed that the GSMaP Gauge data were more accurate than the GSMaP NRT data. However, the GSMaP Gauge could not be used to provide real-time rainfall data and is, therefore, inadequate for real-time flood forecasting. We conclude that the GSMaP Gauge is suitable for replicating past flood events, but it is challenging to use the GSMaP NRT for real-time flood forecasting in Jakarta.

An All-Season Flash Flood Forecasting System for Real-Time Operations

2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Broxton ◽  
Peter A. Troch ◽  
Mike Schaffner ◽  
Carl Unkrich ◽  
David Goodrich
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Flash floods can cause extensive damage to both life and property, especially because they are difficult to predict. Flash flood prediction requires high-resolution meteorological observations and predictions, as well as calibrated hydrological models, which should effectively simulate how a catchment filters rainfall inputs into streamflow. Furthermore, because of the requirement of both hydrological and meteorological components in flash flood forecasting systems, there must be extensive data handling capabilities built in to force the hydrological model with a variety of available hydrometeorological data and predictions, as well as to test the model with hydrological observations. The authors have developed a working prototype of such a system, called KINEROS/hsB-SM, after the hydrological models that are used: the Kinematic Erosion and Runoff (KINEROS) and hillslope-storage Boussinesq Soil Moisture (hsB-SM) models. KINEROS is an event-based overland flow and channel routing model that is designed to simulate flash floods in semiarid regions where infiltration excess overland flow dominates, while hsB-SM is a continuous subsurface flow model, whose model physics are applicable in humid regions where saturation excess overland flow is most important. In addition, KINEROS/hsB-SM includes an energy balance snowmelt model, which gives it the ability to simulate flash floods that involve rain on snow. There are also extensive algorithms to incorporate high-resolution hydrometeorological data, including stage III radar data (5 min, 1° by 1 km), to assist in the calibration of the models, and to run the model in real time. The model is currently being used in an experimental fashion at the National Weather Service Binghamton, New York, Weather Forecast Office.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Temporal Dynamics of Uncertainty Contribution from Satellite Precipitation Input in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using the Variance Decomposition Method

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiumei Ma ◽  
Lihua Xiong ◽  
Dedi Liu ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu ◽  
Shenglian Guo
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Decomposition Method ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Input Uncertainty ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
Uncertainty Contribution

Satellite precipitation estimates (SPE), characterized by high spatial-temporal resolution, have been increasingly applied to hydrological modeling. However, the errors and bias inherent in SPE are broadly recognized. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent input uncertainty in hydrological models driven by SPE contributes to the total prediction uncertainty, resulting from difficulties in uncertainty partitioning. This study comprehensively quantified the input uncertainty contribution of three precipitation inputs (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) near-real-time 3B42RTv7 product, TRMM post-real-time 3B42v7 product and gauge-based precipitation) in rainfall-runoff simulation, using two hydrological models, the lumped daily Ge´nie Rural (GR) and distributed Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) models. For this purpose, the variance decomposition method was applied to disaggregate the total streamflow modeling uncertainty into seven components (uncertainties in model input, parameter, structure and their three first-order interaction effects, and residual error). The results showed that the total uncertainty in GR was lowest, moderate and highest when forced by gauge precipitation, 3B42v7 and 3B42RTv7, respectively. While the total uncertainty in CREST driven by 3B42v7 was lowest among the three input data sources. These results highlighted the superiority of post-real-time 3B42v7 in hydrological modeling as compared to real-time 3B42RTv7. All the input uncertainties in CREST driven by 3B42v7, 3B42RTv7 and gauge-based precipitation were lower than those in GR correspondingly. In addition, the input uncertainty was lowest in 3B42v7-driven CREST model while highest in gauge precipitation-driven GR model among the six combination schemes (two models combined with three precipitation inputs abovementioned). The distributed CREST model was capable of making better use of the spatial distribution advantage of SPE especially for the TRMM post-real-time 3B42v7 product. This study provided new insights into the SPE’s hydrological utility in the context of uncertainty, being significant for improving the suitability and adequacy of SPE to hydrological application.

Modifications of rainfall runoff and decision finding models for on-line simulation in real time control

1999 ◽  
Vol 39 (9) ◽  
pp. 201-207
Author(s):  
Andreas Cassar ◽  
Hans-Reinhard Verworn
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Real Time Control ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Time Control ◽  
Timing Data ◽  
On Line ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model

Most of the existing rainfall runoff models for urban drainage systems have been designed for off-line calculations. With a design storm or a historical rain event and the model system the rainfall runoff processes are simulated, the faster the better. Since very recently, hydrodynamic models have been considered to be much too slow for real time applications. However, with the computing power of today - and even more so of tomorrow - very complex and detailed models may be run on-line and in real time. While the algorithms basically remain the same as for off-line simulations, problems concerning timing, data management and inter process communication have to be identified and solved. This paper describes the upgrading of the existing hydrodynamic rainfall runoff model HYSTEM/EXTRAN and the decision finding model INTL for real time performance, their implementation on a network of UNIX stations and the experiences from running them within an urban drainage real time control project. The main focus is not on what the models do but how they are put into action and made to run smoothly embedded in all the processes necessary in operational real time control.

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