scholarly journals Tide Prediction in the Venice Lagoon Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1173
Author(s):  
Fabio Di Nunno ◽  
Giovanni de Marinis ◽  
Rudy Gargano ◽  
Francesco Granata
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Practical Interest ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

In the Venice Lagoon some of the highest tides in the Mediterranean occur, which have influenced the evolution of the city of Venice and the surrounding lagoon for centuries. The forecast of “high waters” in the lagoon has always been a matter of considerable practical interest. In this study, tide prediction models were developed for the entire lagoon based on Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) neural networks. The NARX-based model development was performed in two different stages. The first stage was the training and testing of the NARX network, performed on data collected in a given time interval at the tide gauge of Punta della Salute, at the end of Canal Grande. The second stage consisted of a comprehensive validation of the model in the entire Venice Lagoon, with a detailed analysis of data from three measuring stations located in points of the lagoon with different characteristics. Good predictions were achieved regardless of whether the meteorological parameters were considered among input parameters, even with considerable time advance. Furthermore, the forecasting model based on NARX has proved capable of predicting even exceptional high tides. The proposed model could be a useful support tool for the management of the MOSE system, which will protect Venice from high waters.

scholarly journals Novel Model Based on Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Short-Term Temperature Evolution in Museum Environment

Sensors ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 615
Author(s):  
Alessandro Bile ◽  
Hamed Tari ◽  
Andreas Grinde ◽  
Francesca Frasca ◽  
Anna Maria Siani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Preventive Conservation ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Art Works ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive ◽  
Heritage Area ◽  
Novel Model ◽  
Potential Tool

The environmental microclimatic characteristics are often subject to fluctuations of considerable importance, which can cause irreparable damage to art works. We explored the applicability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to the Cultural Heritage area, with the aim of predicting short-term microclimatic values based on data collected at Rosenborg Castle (Copenhagen), housing the Royal Danish Collection. Specifically, this study applied the NAR (Nonlinear Autoregressive) and NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous) models to the Rosenborg microclimate time series. Even if the two models were applied to small datasets, they have shown a good adaptive capacity predicting short-time future values. This work explores the use of AI in very short forecasting of microclimate variables in museums as a potential tool for decision-support systems to limit the climate-induced damages of artworks within the scope of their preventive conservation. The proposed model could be a useful support tool for the management of the museums.

Real-time queue estimation model development for uninterrupted freeway flow based on shockwave analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 153-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Cao ◽  
Md. Hadiuzzaman ◽  
Tony Z. Qiu ◽  
Dawei Hu
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Traffic Management ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Macroscopic Model ◽  
Strategy Development ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Loop Detector ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Proposed Model

In this study, the authors developed a time-space discrete macroscopic model based on the shockwave theory for real-time queue estimation in uninterrupted freeway flow, using fixed-location loop detector data. After investigating the queue characteristics both at an active bottleneck and within a variable speed limit control case, the proposed model was applied to these two cases on Whitemud Drive, a major freeway corridor in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Modified Highway Capacity Manual–based methods were used to determine queue density in uninterrupted freeway flow. The effect of time interval size on queue estimation was studied, as loop detector data acquisition frequencies may differ. It was found that the proposed model accurately estimates real-time queue length independent of the time interval. Multiple single queues were implemented in a calibrated VISSIM 5.3 micro-simulation model to perform the validation task. The study is a helpful foundation for future active traffic management strategy development and improvement.

Comparison of Meta-heuristic Algorithms on Benchmark Functions

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 508-517
Author(s):  
FerdaNur Arıcı ◽  
Ersin Kaya
Keyword(s):  
Heuristic Algorithms ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Optimization Algorithms ◽  
Gravitational Search Algorithm ◽  
Differential Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Bee Colony ◽  
Different Characteristics

Optimization is a process to search the most suitable solution for a problem within an acceptable time interval. The algorithms that solve the optimization problems are called as optimization algorithms. In the literature, there are many optimization algorithms with different characteristics. The optimization algorithms can exhibit different behaviors depending on the size, characteristics and complexity of the optimization problem. In this study, six well-known population based optimization algorithms (artificial algae algorithm - AAA, artificial bee colony algorithm - ABC, differential evolution algorithm - DE, genetic algorithm - GA, gravitational search algorithm - GSA and particle swarm optimization - PSO) were used. These six algorithms were performed on the CEC’17 test functions. According to the experimental results, the algorithms were compared and performances of the algorithms were evaluated.

scholarly journals Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1213
Author(s):  
Ahmed Aljanad ◽  
Nadia M. L. Tan ◽  
Vassilios G. Agelidis ◽  
Hussain Shareef
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Backpropagation Neural Networks ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Time

Hourly global solar irradiance (GSR) data are required for sizing, planning, and modeling of solar photovoltaic farms. However, operating and controlling such farms exposed to varying environmental conditions, such as fast passing clouds, necessitates GSR data to be available for very short time intervals. Classical backpropagation neural networks do not perform satisfactorily when predicting parameters within short intervals. This paper proposes a hybrid backpropagation neural networks based on particle swarm optimization. The particle swarm algorithm is used as an optimization algorithm within the backpropagation neural networks to optimize the number of hidden layers and neurons used and its learning rate. The proposed model can be used as a reliable model in predicting changes in the solar irradiance during short time interval in tropical regions such as Malaysia and other regions. Actual global solar irradiance data of 5-s and 1-min intervals, recorded by weather stations, are applied to train and test the proposed algorithm. Moreover, to ensure the adaptability and robustness of the proposed technique, two different cases are evaluated using 1-day and 3-days profiles, for two different time intervals of 1-min and 5-s each. A set of statistical error indices have been introduced to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm. From the results obtained, the 3-days profile’s performance evaluation of the BPNN-PSO are 1.7078 of RMSE, 0.7537 of MAE, 0.0292 of MSE, and 31.4348 of MAPE (%), at 5-s time interval, where the obtained results of 1-min interval are 0.6566 of RMSE, 0.2754 of MAE, 0.0043 of MSE, and 1.4732 of MAPE (%). The results revealed that proposed model outperformed the standalone backpropagation neural networks method in predicting global solar irradiance values for extremely short-time intervals. In addition to that, the proposed model exhibited high level of predictability compared to other existing models.

scholarly journals Multi-Layer Blockchain-Based Security Architecture for Internet of Things

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Houshyar Honar Pajooh ◽  
Mohammad Rashid ◽  
Fakhrul Alam ◽  
Serge Demidenko
Keyword(s):  
Internet Of Things ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Base Stations ◽  
Smart Devices ◽  
Security Model ◽  
Cluster Heads ◽  
Authentication Mechanism ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Authentication And Authorization

The proliferation of smart devices in the Internet of Things (IoT) networks creates significant security challenges for the communications between such devices. Blockchain is a decentralized and distributed technology that can potentially tackle the security problems within the 5G-enabled IoT networks. This paper proposes a Multi layer Blockchain Security model to protect IoT networks while simplifying the implementation. The concept of clustering is utilized in order to facilitate the multi-layer architecture. The K-unknown clusters are defined within the IoT network by applying techniques that utillize a hybrid Evolutionary Computation Algorithm while using Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithms. The chosen cluster heads are responsible for local authentication and authorization. Local private blockchain implementation facilitates communications between the cluster heads and relevant base stations. Such a blockchain enhances credibility assurance and security while also providing a network authentication mechanism. The open-source Hyperledger Fabric Blockchain platform is deployed for the proposed model development. Base stations adopt a global blockchain approach to communicate with each other securely. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed clustering algorithm performs well when compared to the earlier reported approaches. The proposed lightweight blockchain model is also shown to be better suited to balance network latency and throughput as compared to a traditional global blockchain.

The number of meetings in free Poisson traffic

1974 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 320-331
Author(s):  
Hans D. Unkelbach ◽  
Helmut Wegmann
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Practical Interest ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Integro Differential Equation

Using Rényi's model of free Poisson traffic the distribution of the number of meetings of vehicles on a highway section during a given time interval is investigated. An integro-differential equation for the generating function of that variable is deduced and the first moments are calculated. The generating function is given explicitly in simple cases and approximately in cases of practical interest.

122 A Mechanistic Model of Growth and Amino Acid Deposition in the Pregnant Sow: Model Development, Evaluation, and Application

2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 55-56
Author(s):  
Christian D Ramirez-Camba ◽  
Crystal L Levesque
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
Amino Acid ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Allantoic Fluid ◽  
Late Gestation ◽  
Maternal Body ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Development Evaluation ◽  
Model Weight

Abstract A mechanistic model was developed with the objective to characterize weight gain and essential amino acid (EAA) deposition in the different tissue pools that make up the pregnant sow: placenta, allantoic fluid, amniotic fluid, fetus, uterus, mammary gland, and maternal body were considered. The data used in this modelling approach were obtained from published scientific articles reporting weights, crude protein (CP), and EAA composition in the previously mentioned tissues; studies reporting not less than 5 datapoints across gestation were considered. A total of 12 scientific articles published between 1977 and 2020 were selected for the development of the model and the model was validated using 11 separate scientific papers. The model consists of three connected sub-models: protein deposition (Pd) model, weight gain model, and EAA deposition model. Weight gain, Pd, and EAA deposition curves were developed with nonparametric statistics using splines regression. The validation of the model showed a strong agreement between observed and predicted growth (r2 = 0.92, root mean square error = 3%). The proposed model also offered descriptive insights into the weight gain and Pd during gestation. The model suggests that the definition of time-dependent Pd is more accurately described as an increase in fluid deposition during mid-gestation coinciding with a reduction in Pd. In addition, due to differences in CP composition between pregnancy-related tissues and maternal body, Pd by itself may not be the best measurement criteria for the estimation of EAA requirement in pregnant sows. The proposed model also captures the negative maternal Pd that occurs in late gestation and indicates that litter size influences maternal tissue mobilization more than parity. The model predicts that the EAA requirements in early and mid-gestation are 75, 55 and 50% lower for primiparous sows than parity 2, 3 and 4+ sows, respectively, which suggest the potential benefits of parity segregated feeding.

Estimation of Time-Dependent Turning Fractions at Signalized Intersections

1998 ◽  
Vol 1644 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang-Len Chang ◽  
Xianding Tao
Keyword(s):  
Signalized Intersections ◽  
Efficient Estimation ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Time Interval ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Estimation Of Time ◽  
Additional Constraints

An effective method for estimating time-varying turning fractions at signalized intersections is described. With the inclusion of approximate intersection delay, the proposed model can account for the impacts of signal setting on the dynamic distribution of intersection flows. To improve the estimation accuracy, the use of preestimated turning fractions from a relatively longer time interval has been proposed to serve as additional constraints for the same estimation but over a short time interval. The results of extensive simulation experiments indicated that the proposed method can yield sufficiently accurate as well as efficient estimation of dynamic turning fractions for signalized intersections.

scholarly journals Development and validation of clinical prediction models for mortality, functional outcome and cognitive impairment after stroke: a study protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. e014607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Fahey ◽  
Anthony Rudd ◽  
Yannick Béjot ◽  
Charles Wolfe ◽  
Abdel Douiri
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Functional Outcome ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Model Development ◽  
College Hospital ◽  
Stroke Registry ◽  
Temporal Validation ◽  
Stroke Register

IntroductionStroke is a leading cause of adult disability and death worldwide. The neurological impairments associated with stroke prevent patients from performing basic daily activities and have enormous impact on families and caregivers. Practical and accurate tools to assist in predicting outcome after stroke at patient level can provide significant aid for patient management. Furthermore, prediction models of this kind can be useful for clinical research, health economics, policymaking and clinical decision support.Methods2869 patients with first-ever stroke from South London Stroke Register (SLSR) (1995–2004) will be included in the development cohort. We will use information captured after baseline to construct multilevel models and a Cox proportional hazard model to predict cognitive impairment, functional outcome and mortality up to 5 years after stroke. Repeated random subsampling validation (Monte Carlo cross-validation) will be evaluated in model development. Data from participants recruited to the stroke register (2005–2014) will be used for temporal validation of the models. Data from participants recruited to the Dijon Stroke Register (1985–2015) will be used for external validation. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the models will be presented.EthicsPatients, or for patients who cannot consent their relatives, gave written informed consent to participate in stroke-related studies within the SLSR. The SLSR design was approved by the ethics committees of Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, Kings College Hospital, Queens Square and Westminster Hospitals (London). The Dijon Stroke Registry was approved by the Comité National des Registres and the InVS and has authorisation of the Commission Nationale de l’Informatique et des Libertés.

scholarly journals Predicting Corporate Financial Sustainability Using Novel Business Analytics

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyoung-jae Kim ◽  
Kichun Lee ◽  
Hyunchul Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Business Analytics ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Distress Prediction

Measuring and managing the financial sustainability of the borrowers is crucial to financial institutions for their risk management. As a result, building an effective corporate financial distress prediction model has been an important research topic for a long time. Recently, researchers are exerting themselves to improve the accuracy of financial distress prediction models by applying various business analytics approaches including statistical and artificial intelligence methods. Among them, support vector machines (SVMs) are becoming popular. SVMs require only small training samples and have little possibility of overfitting if model parameters are properly tuned. Nonetheless, SVMs generally show high prediction accuracy since it can deal with complex nonlinear patterns. Despite of these advantages, SVMs are often criticized because their architectural factors are determined by heuristics, such as the parameters of a kernel function and the subsets of appropriate features and instances. In this study, we propose globally optimized SVMs, denoted by GOSVM, a novel hybrid SVM model designed to optimize feature selection, instance selection, and kernel parameters altogether. This study introduces genetic algorithm (GA) in order to simultaneously optimize multiple heterogeneous design factors of SVMs. Our study applies the proposed model to the real-world case for predicting financial distress. Experiments show that the proposed model significantly improves the prediction accuracy of conventional SVMs.

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