scholarly journals Canadian Continental-Scale Hydrology under a Changing Climate: A Review

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 906
Author(s):  
Tricia A. Stadnyk ◽  
Stephen J. Déry
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Drainage Basins ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Hydrologic Change

Canada, like other high latitude cold regions on Earth, is experiencing some of the most accelerated and intense warming resulting from global climate change. In the northern regions, Arctic amplification has resulted in warming two to three times greater than global mean temperature trends. Unprecedented warming is matched by intensification of wet and dry regions and hydroclimatic cycles, which is altering the spatial and seasonal distribution of surface waters in Canada. Diagnosing and tracking hydrologic change across Canada requires the implementation of continental-scale prediction models owing the size of Canada’s drainage basins, their distribution across multiple eco- and climatic zones, and the scarcity and paucity of observational networks. This review examines the current state of continental-scale climate change across Canada and the anticipated impacts to freshwater availability, including the role of anthropogenic regulation. The review focuses on continental and regional-scale prediction that underpins operational design and long-term resource planning and management in Canada. While there are significant process-based changes being experienced within Canadian catchments that are equally—if not more so—critical for community water availability, the focus of this review is on the cumulative effects of climate change and anthropogenic regulation for the Canadian freshwater supply.

scholarly journals Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (2) ◽  
pp. 645-665
Author(s):  
Melissa S. Bukovsky ◽  
Linda O. Mearns
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Continental Scale

Abstract The climate sensitivity of global climate models (GCMs) strongly influences projected climate change due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Reasonably, the climate sensitivity of a GCM may be expected to affect dynamically downscaled projections. However, there has been little examination of the effect of the climate sensitivity of GCMs on regional climate model (RCM) ensembles. Therefore, we present projections of temperature and precipitation from the ensemble of projections produced as a part of the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) in the context of their relationship to the climate sensitivity of their parent GCMs. NA-CORDEX simulations were produced at 50-km and 25-km resolutions with multiple RCMs which downscaled multiple GCMs that spanned nearly the full range of climate sensitivity available in the CMIP5 archive. We show that climate sensitivity is a very important source of spread in the NA-CORDEX ensemble, particularly for temperature. Temperature projections correlate with driving GCM climate sensitivity annually and seasonally across North America not only at a continental scale but also at a local-to-regional scale. Importantly, the spread in temperature projections would be reduced if only low, mid, or high climate sensitivity simulations were considered, or if only the ensemble mean were considered. Precipitation projections correlate with climate sensitivity, but only at a continental scale during the cold season, due to the increasing influence of other processes at finer scales. Additionally, it is shown that the RCMs do alter the projection space sampled by their driving GCMs.

scholarly journals Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja Katzenberger ◽  
Jacob Schewe ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP-5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP-6 are of interest. Here, we analyse 32 models of the latest CMIP-6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with high agreement between the models and independent of the SSP; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm/day and 5.3 % per degree of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP-5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP-6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP-5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of atmospheric aerosol scavenging to precipitation intensity and frequency in the context of global climate change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Hou ◽  
Shiliang Wu ◽  
Jessica L. McCarty
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract. Wet deposition driven by precipitation is an important sink for atmospheric aerosols and soluble gases. We investigate the sensitivity of atmospheric aerosol lifetimes to precipitation intensity and frequency in the context of global climate change. Our study, based on the GEOS-Chem model simulation, shows that the removal efficiency and hence the atmospheric lifetime of aerosols have significantly higher sensitivities to precipitation frequencies than to precipitation intensities, indicating that the same amount of precipitation may lead to different removal efficiencies of atmospheric aerosols. Combining the long-term trends of precipitation patterns for various regions with the sensitivities of atmospheric aerosols lifetimes to various precipitation characteristics allows us to examine the potential impacts of precipitation changes on atmospheric aerosols. Analyses based on an observational dataset show that precipitation frequency in some regions have decreased in the past 14 years, which might increase the atmospheric aerosol lifetimes in those regions. Similar analyses based on multiple reanalysis meteorological datasets indicate that the precipitation changes over the past 30 years can lead to perturbations in the atmospheric aerosol lifetimes by 10 % or higher at the regional scale.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of atmospheric aerosol scavenging to precipitation intensity and frequency in the context of global climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 8173-8182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Hou ◽  
Shiliang Wu ◽  
Jessica L. McCarty ◽  
Yang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract. Wet deposition driven by precipitation is an important sink for atmospheric aerosols and soluble gases. We investigate the sensitivity of atmospheric aerosol lifetimes to precipitation intensity and frequency in the context of global climate change. Our sensitivity model simulations, through some simplified perturbations to precipitation in the GEOS-Chem model, show that the removal efficiency and hence the atmospheric lifetime of aerosols have significantly higher sensitivities to precipitation frequencies than to precipitation intensities, indicating that the same amount of precipitation may lead to different removal efficiencies of atmospheric aerosols. Combining the long-term trends of precipitation patterns for various regions with the sensitivities of atmospheric aerosol lifetimes to various precipitation characteristics allows us to examine the potential impacts of precipitation changes on atmospheric aerosols. Analyses based on an observational dataset show that precipitation frequencies in some regions have decreased in the past 14 years, which might increase the atmospheric aerosol lifetimes in those regions. Similar analyses based on multiple reanalysis meteorological datasets indicate that the changes of precipitation intensity and frequency over the past 30 years can lead to perturbations in the atmospheric aerosol lifetimes by 10 % or higher at the regional scale.

scholarly journals Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1245
Author(s):  
Frank Kreienkamp ◽  
Philip Lorenz ◽  
Tobias Geiger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Temperature Signal

Climate modelling output that was provided under the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) shows significant changes in model-specific Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) as compared to CMIP5. The newer versions of many Global Climate Models (GCMs) report higher ECS values that result in stronger global warming than previously estimated. At the same time, the multi-GCM spread of ECS is significantly larger than under CMIP5. Here, we analyse how the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 affect climate projections for Germany. We use the statistical-empirical downscaling method EPISODES in order to downscale GCM data for the scenario pairs RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5. We use data sets of the GCMs CanESM, EC-Earth, MPI-ESM, and NorESM. The results show that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also have an impact at the regional scale. While the temperature signal under regional climate change remains comparable for both CMIP generations in the MPI-ESM chain, the temperature signal increases by up to 3 °C for the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario pair in the EC-Earth chain. Changes in precipitation are less pronounced and they only show notable differences at the seasonal scale. The reported changes in the climate signal will have direct consequences for society. Climate change impacts previously projected for the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario might occur equally under the new SSP2-4.5 scenario.

scholarly journals Considerations in the Selection of Global Climate Models for Regional Climate Projections: The Arctic as a Case Study*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1583-1597 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Overland ◽  
Muyin Wang ◽  
Nicholas A. Bond ◽  
John E. Walsh ◽  
Vladimir M. Kattsov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Scale Evaluation ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Societal Relevance

Abstract Climate projections at regional scales are in increased demand from management agencies and other stakeholders. While global atmosphere–ocean climate models provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate at continental scales and above, individual model performance varies for different regions, variables, and evaluation metrics—a less than satisfying situation. Using the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere as a focus, the authors assess strategies for providing regional projections based on global climate models. Starting with a set of model results obtained from an “ensemble of opportunity,” the core of this procedure is to retain a subset of models through comparisons of model simulations with observations at both continental and regional scales. The exercise is more one of model culling than model selection. The continental-scale evaluation is a check on the large-scale climate physics of the models, and the regional-scale evaluation emphasizes variables of ecological or societal relevance. An additional consideration is given to the comprehensiveness of processes included in the models. In many but not all applications, different results are obtained from a reduced set of models compared to relying on the simple mean of all available models. For example, in the Arctic the top-performing models tend to be more sensitive to greenhouse forcing than the poorer-performing models. Because of the mostly unexplained inconsistencies in model performance under different selection criteria, simple and transparent evaluation methods are favored. The use of a single model is not recommended. For some applications, no model may be able to provide a suitable regional projection. The use of model evaluation strategies, as opposed to relying on simple averages of ensembles of opportunity, should be part of future synthesis activities such as the upcoming Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Envisaging post-earthquake snowmelt-induced shallow landslides under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian ◽  
Xuanmei Fan ◽  
Ali. P. Yunus ◽  
Theo van Asch ◽  
Qiang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Numerical Approach ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Physically Based

<p>Seasonal snow cover occupies around 33 % of the earth’s surface and draws the underlying landscape to serious natural hazards under climate change. The frequency of shallow landslides in seasonal cold regions is increasing, i.e., in the French Alps, Umbria in Italy, and Hokkaido in Japan. Further, tectonically active seasonally cold areas are more susceptible to spring landslides if an earthquake occurs during pre-winter. Hazard assessment and risk mitigation of snowmelt-induced landslides in such a scenario requires physically-based prediction models. However, studies focusing on the impacts of future snowmelt on shallow landslides are scarce. To comprehend these, the complex interactions between the atmosphere, hydrological, and geomechanical systems within a catchment under future climate need detailed studies. Present methods for snowmelt induced soil slope instability analysis are single-slope based and applied for individual cases. The challenge remain is to simulate the interactions between the atmosphere, hydrological, and geomechanical systems by coupling micro and macro-scale processes within a catchment for regional-scale future forecasts. In this perspective, we developed a novel spatially distributed, a physically-based numerical approach to compute slope stability within a basin, explicitly considering the atmosphere-ground, hydrology, and mechanical interactions on a day to day time step. Using this model, we envisaged future snowmelt-induced landslides under increased and decreased melt rates and post-earthquake settings. We obtained the probability density curves of these future landslides and found that under slower snowmelt rates, the occurrence probability of individual landslides remains the same, whereas, under rapid and increased snowmelt rates, the size-distribution of the landslides increase one magnitude and doubles if rapid snowmelt follows an earthquake.</p>

scholarly journals Comparison Air Temperature under Global Climate Change Issue in Gifu city and Ogaki city, Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Rahmat ◽  
Abdul Mutolib
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Issue ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature ◽  
Gifu Prefecture ◽  
Global Data

Increases in air temperature indicate a global climate change. Thus, information in the change of temperature regional scale is important to support global data. The present research was conducted in Gifu city and Ogaki city located in Gifu prefecture, Japan. The results showed that, average air temperatures in both cities are quite similar with a difference value of under 1<sup>o</sup>C. Maximum air temperature in Gifu city is significantly higher than Ogaki city, whereas minimum air temperature in Gifu city is significantly lower than in Ogaki city. Daily range of air temperature in Gifu city significantly higher than in Ogaki city. In both cities, air temperature relatively increased in three decades. This is because of different in land characteristics in both cities.

scholarly journals Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Hlásny ◽  
Martin Mokroš ◽  
Laura Dobor ◽  
Katarína Merganičová ◽  
Martin Lukac
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Conservation Priorities ◽  
Continental Scale

Abstract Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the 21st century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that the most instable future climate in Europe is likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of climatic instability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23–31 % of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with these identified climatic refugia, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as the resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.

scholarly journals Hemispheric and Continental Scale Patterns of Similarity in Mountain Tundra

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
George P Malanson ◽  
Risto Virtanen ◽  
Andrea J Britton ◽  
Borja Jiménez-Alfaro ◽  
Hong Qian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Community Composition ◽  
Vascular Plants ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Geographic Distance ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Compositional Patterns

Understanding the full range of biodiversity patterns from local to global scales, through the study of the drivers of multiscale plant community composition and diversity, is a current goal of biogeography. A synthetic understanding of to what extent vegetation compositional patterns are produced by biotic factors, geography or climate and how these patterns vary across scales is needed. This lack hinders prediction of the effects of climate change in global vegetation. Variation in community composition is examined in relation to climatic difference and geographic distance at hemispheric and continental scales. Vascular plants and bryophytes in 13 mountain regions were analyzed; eight in Europe and five in North America, nine mid-latitude and four oroarctic. Species composition differed between continents and between oroarctic and mid-latitude regions. Patterns of paired regional similarity with distance were significant for all pairs and intercontinental pairs, but not for those within Europe and North America. Climatic variables accounted for most of the variance in vegetation patterns revealed by General Linear Models of ordinations, but geographic variables, of Moran eigenvectors and latitudinal zones, were also important and significant. The effects of geography were typically twice as strong for vascular plants as for bryophytes. The importance of geography at these scales suggests that past evolutionary and ecological processes are as important as current fit to any climatic niche. Interpretation of observations of the impacts of global climate change should recognize geographic context and phylogeny, and policies to mitigate them, such as assisted migration, should be cautious.

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