scholarly journals Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Non-Point Source Loading under Future Climate Scenarios Using the SWAT Model

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Mao Feng ◽  
Zhenyao Shen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Point Source ◽  
Spatial Configuration ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Miyun Reservoir ◽  
Ecological Protection ◽  
Reduction Effect

The Miyun Reservoir is an important source of surface drinking water in Beijing. Due to climate change and human activities, the inflow of Miyun Reservoir watershed (MRW) has been continuously reduced in the past 30 years, which has seriously affected the safety of Beijing’s water supply. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the mitigation measures based on the quantification of the integrated impacts of climate and land use change in MRW. The non-point source (NPS) model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT) was used for the development of future climate scenarios which were derived from two regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Three land use scenarios were generated by the land use model (conversion of land-use and its effects (CLUE-S)): (1) historical trend scenario, (2) ecological protection without consideration of spatial configuration scenario and (3) ecological protection scenario. Moreover, the reduction of sediment and nutrients under three future land use patterns in future climate scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that an appropriate land use change project led to the desired reduction effect on sediment and nutrients output under future climate scenarios. The average reduction rates of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus were 11.4%, 6.3% and 7.4%, respectively. The ecological protection scenario considering spatial configuration showed the best reduction effect on sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus. Therefore, the addition of region-specific preference variables as part of land use change provides better pollutant control effects. Overall, this research provides technical support to protect the safety of Beijing’s drinking water and future management of non-point source pollution in MRW.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Simulating Land-Cover and Land-Use Change in the Savanna Under Present Day and Future Climate Scenarios-A GIS-Based Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mayowa J. Fasona ◽  
Alabi S. Soneye ◽  
Olatunde J. Ogunkunle ◽  
Olusegun A. Adeaga ◽  
Olutoyin A. Fashae ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios

Response of hydrological processes to climate and land use changes in Hiso River watershed, Fukushima, Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilei Peng ◽  
Chunying Wang ◽  
Sadao Eguchi ◽  
Kanta Kuramochi ◽  
Masato Igura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Annual Water

<p>Hydrological processes at basin scale are driven by climate and land-use changes. Hiso River watershed (HRW) is within a radiocesium contaminated area caused by the disaster in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP). It’s urgently needed to make evaluations on how changes of climate and land-use bring impacts on hydrological processes, which control pollutants transport in watershed. This study applied a combination method of Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to generate future climatic and hydrologic variables. Future climate data was obtained from three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios of a single General Circulation Models (GCMs) in three future periods of 2030s, 2060s and 2090s (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099), with a baseline period (1980-2009). Furthermore, according to land-use change in HRW during 2013-2017, three land-use change scenarios under the three future climate scenarios were established. Results suggested that SDSM showed good capabilities in capturing daily maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation. The SWAT model presented good performances in simulating monthly and yearly streamflow. Results also suggested projected higher temperatures and lower rainfall led to decreased annual water yield and evapotranspiration (ET). The annual water yield and ET decreased in most seasons while had a slight increase in spring. RCP8.5 scenario always generated larger magnitudes for climatic variables and water balance components compared with other climate scenarios. Land-use changes had strong impact on surface runoff and groundwater flow. These findings could provide reference for decontamination and revitalization policy-making under complicated land use and climate change conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial-Temporal Change of Land Use and Its Impact on Water Quality of East-Liao River Basin from 2000 to 2020

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1955
Author(s):  
Mingxi Zhang ◽  
Guangzhi Rong ◽  
Aru Han ◽  
Dao Riao ◽  
Xingpeng Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Point Source ◽  
Water Body ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
Point Source Pollution ◽  
Construction Land ◽  
Unused Land ◽  
Non Point Source Pollution

Land use change is an important driving force factor affecting the river water environment and directly affecting water quality. To analyze the impact of land use change on water quality change, this study first analyzed the land use change index of the study area. Then, the study area was divided into three subzones based on surface runoff. The relationship between the characteristics of land use change and the water quality grade was obtained by grey correlation analysis. The results showed that the land use types changed significantly in the study area since 2000, and water body and forest land were the two land types with the most significant changes. The transfer rate is cultivated field > forest land > construction land > grassland > unused land > water body. The entropy value of land use information is represented as Area I > Area III > Area II. The shift range of gravity center is forest land > grassland > water body > unused land > construction land > cultivated field. There is a strong correlation between land use change index and water quality, which can be improved and managed by changing the land use type. It is necessary to establish ecological protection areas or functional areas in Area I, artificial lawns or plantations shall be built in the river around the water body to intercept pollutants from non-point source pollution in Area II, and scientific and rational farming in the lower reaches of rivers can reduce non-point source pollution caused by farming.

scholarly journals Future climate and land use instability can negate the benefits of protected areas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Asamoah ◽  
Linda Beaumont ◽  
Joesph M Maina
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Spatially Adaptive ◽  
Climate Stress ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
High Conservation ◽  
Climate Velocity

Abstract Expanding protected area networks and enhancing their capacities is currently one avenue at the forefront of efforts to conserve and restore global biodiversity. Climate and habitat loss resulting from land use interact synergistically to undermine the potential benefits of protected areas (PAs). Targeting conservation, adaptation and mitigation efforts requires an understanding of patterns of climate and land-use change within the current arrangement of PAs, and how these might change in the future. In this paper, we provide this understanding using predicted rates of temporal and spatial displacement of future climate and land use globally and within PAs. We show that ~ 47% of the world’s PAs—10.6% of which are under restrictive management—are located in regions that will likely experience both climate stress and land-use instability by 2050. The vast majority of these PAs are also distributed across moist biomes and in high conservation value regions, and fall into less-restrictive management categories. The differential impacts of combined land use and climate velocity across protected biomes indicate that climate and land-use change may have fundamentally different ecological and management consequences at multiple scales. Taken together, our findings can inform spatially adaptive natural resource management and actions to achieve sustainable development and biodiversity goals.

scholarly journals Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 993-1017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Farinosi ◽  
Mauricio E. Arias ◽  
Eunjee Lee ◽  
Marcos Longo ◽  
Fabio F. Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
River Flows
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