scholarly journals Detecting Climate Driven Changes in Chlorophyll-a in Deep Subalpine Lakes Using Long Term Satellite Data

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 866
Author(s):  
Gary Free ◽  
Mariano Bresciani ◽  
Monica Pinardi ◽  
Nicola Ghirardi ◽  
Giulia Luciani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Nutrient Dynamics ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
Subalpine Lakes ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Traditional Pattern

Climate change has increased the temperature and altered the mixing regime of high-value lakes in the subalpine region of Northern Italy. Remote sensing of chlorophyll-a can help provide a time series to allow an assessment of the ecological implications of this. Non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) was used to visualize and understand the changes that have occurred between 2003–2018 in Lakes Garda, Como, Iseo, and Maggiore. In all four deep subalpine lakes, there has been a disruption from a traditional pattern of a significant spring chlorophyll-a peak followed by a clear water phase and summer/autumn peaks. This was replaced after 2010–2012, with lower spring peaks and a tendency for annual maxima to occur in summer. There was a tendency for this switch to be interspersed by a two-year period of low chlorophyll-a. Variables that were significant in NPMR included time, air temperature, total phosphorus, winter temperature, and winter values for the North Atlantic Oscillation. The change from spring to summer chlorophyll-a maxima, relatively sudden in an ecological context, could be interpreted as a regime shift. The cause was probably cascading effects from increased winter temperatures, reduced winter mixing, and altered nutrient dynamics. Future trends will depend on climate change and inter-decadal climate drivers.

scholarly journals A regional evaluation of the influence of climate change on long term trends in chlorophyll-a in large Italian lakes from satellite data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Free ◽  
Mariano Bresciani ◽  
Monica Pinardi ◽  
Nicola Ghirardi ◽  
Giulia Luciani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Nutrient Dynamics ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
Lake Garda ◽  
Winter Temperatures ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Traditional Pattern

Abstract. Climate change has increased the temperature and altered the mixing regime of high-value lakes in the sub-alpine region of Northern Italy. Remote sensing of chlorophyll-a can help provide a time-series to allow an assessment of the ecological implications of this. Non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) was used to visualize and understand the changes that have occurred between 2003–2018 in lakes Garda, Como, Iseo and Maggiore. In all four deep sub-alpine lakes there has been a disruption from a traditional pattern of a significant spring chlorophyll-a peak followed by a clear water phase and summer/autumn peaks. This was replaced after 2010–2012, with lower spring peaks and a tendency for annual maxima to occur in summer. There was a tendency for this switch to be interspersed by a two-year period of low chlorophyll-a, which seemed to extend until 2018 for Lake Garda. Variables that were significant in NPMR included time, air temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, winter temperature and winter values for the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic pattern. The change from spring to summer chlorophyll-a maxima, relatively sudden in an ecological context, could be interpreted as a regime shift. The cause is probably cascading effects from increased winter temperatures, reduced winter mixing and altered nutrient dynamics. Future trends will depend on climate change and inter-decadal climate drivers.

Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 762-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Di Lorenzo ◽  
K. M. Cobb ◽  
J. C. Furtado ◽  
N. Schneider ◽  
B. T. Anderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
The North ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
The North Pacific

scholarly journals Oscillatory Climate Modes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Their Synchronization with the North Atlantic Oscillation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (15) ◽  
pp. 4060-4079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhak Feliks ◽  
Michael Ghil ◽  
Andrew W. Robertson
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
The North ◽  
Ethiopian Plateau ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Oscillatory climatic modes over the North Atlantic, Ethiopian Plateau, and eastern Mediterranean were examined in instrumental and proxy records from these regions. Aside from the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Nile River water-level records, the authors study for the first time an instrumental rainfall record from Jerusalem and a tree-ring record from the Golan Heights. The teleconnections between the regions were studied in terms of synchronization of chaotic oscillators. Standard methods for studying synchronization among such oscillators are modified by combining them with advanced spectral methods, including singular spectrum analysis. The resulting cross-spectral analysis quantifies the strength of the coupling together with the degree of synchronization. A prominent oscillatory mode with a 7–8-yr period is present in all the climatic indices studied here and is completely synchronized with the North Atlantic Oscillation. An energy analysis of the synchronization raises the possibility that this mode originates in the North Atlantic. Evidence is discussed for this mode being induced by the 7–8-yr oscillation in the position of the Gulf Stream front. A mechanism for the teleconnections between the North Atlantic, Ethiopian Plateau, and eastern Mediterranean is proposed, and implications for interannual-to-decadal climate prediction are discussed.

scholarly journals Climate change and outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis in a montane area of Central Spain; is there a link?

2006 ◽  
Vol 274 (1607) ◽  
pp. 253-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Bosch ◽  
Luís M Carrascal ◽  
Luis Durán ◽  
Susan Walker ◽  
Matthew C Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Batrachochytrium Dendrobatidis ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
The North ◽  
Natural Park ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Amphibian species are declining at an alarming rate on a global scale in large part owing to an infectious disease caused by the chytridiomycete fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis . This disease of amphibians has recently emerged within Europe, but knowledge of its effects on amphibian assemblages remains poor. Importantly, little is known about the environmental envelope that is associated with chytridiomycosis in Europe and the potential for climate change to drive future disease dynamics. Here, we use long-term observations on amphibian population dynamics in the Peñalara Natural Park, Spain, to investigate the link between climate change and chytridiomycosis. Our analysis shows a significant association between change in local climatic variables and the occurrence of chytridiomycosis within this region. Specifically, we show that rising temperature is linked to the occurrence of chytrid-related disease, consistent with the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. We show that these local variables are driven by general circulation patterns, principally the North Atlantic Oscillation. Given that B. dendrobatidis is known to be broadly distributed across Europe, there is now an urgent need to assess the generality of our finding and determine whether climate-driven epidemics may be expected to impact on amphibian species across the wider region.

A Reply to John L. Brooke’s “Malthus and the North Atlantic Oscillation”

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-584
Author(s):  
Kyle Harper
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Human Response ◽  
The North ◽  
Positive Mode ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

In this continuation of his exchange with Brooke about Brooke’s big-picture model of climate change and human response, Harper argues for careful articulation of what kind of Malthusianism Brooke claims, or does not claim, for or against his model. Harper also challenges Brooke’s description of the paleoclimate known as the Roman Climate Optimum as a period dominated by a persistently positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

scholarly journals Extreme weather affects Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linnéa Carlzon ◽  
Amanda Karlsson ◽  
Knud Falk ◽  
Antonia Liess ◽  
Søren Møller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Breeding Success ◽  
Nest Success ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Breeding Cycle ◽  
Peregrine Falcon ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract In order to better understand the potential effects of climate change on the Peregrine Falcon, we investigated the relationship between extreme weather events and Peregrines’ breeding success in South Greenland. We defined three variables – number of days with extremely low temperatures, extreme precipitation, consecutive rainy days – and an additive variable, total days with extreme weather, and tested their relationship with Peregrines’ breeding success (measured as young per site and nest success) over a 33 year study period. Breeding success was negatively influenced by the number of days with extreme weather and extremely low temperature. The strongest relationship found was total days with extreme weather in the entire breeding season, which explained 22% and 27% of the variation in nest success and young per site, respectively. The number of days with extreme weather in our study related to fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Thus, with a strengthening of the NAO, linked to climate change, more extreme weather may occur in the Arctic and induce increased variation in Peregrines’ breeding success. Our data did not allow us to pinpoint when in the breeding cycle inclement weather was particularly harmful, and we recommend finer-scale research (e.g. automated nest cameras) to better monitor the species-specific effects of rapidly changing climate.

scholarly journals Shorter blooms expected with longer warm periods under climate change: an example from a shallow meso-eutrophic Mediterranean lake

Hydrobiologia ◽  
2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Free ◽  
Mariano Bresciani ◽  
Monica Pinardi ◽  
Steef Peters ◽  
Marnix Laanen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phytoplankton Bloom ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
Calcite Precipitation ◽  
Chl A ◽  
The North ◽  
Lake Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Lake ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractSatellite data from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) lakes project were used to examine the influence of climate on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). Nonparametric multiplicative regression and machine learning were used to explain Chl-a concentration trend and dynamics. The main parameters of importance were seasonality, interannual variation, lake level, water temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and antecedent rainfall. No evidence was found for an earlier onset of the summer phytoplankton bloom related to the earlier onset of warmer temperatures. Instead, a curvilinear relationship between Chl-a and the temperature length of season above 20°C (LOS) was found with longer periods of warmer temperature leading to blooms of shorter duration. We suggest that a longer period of warmer temperatures in the summer may result in earlier uptake of nutrients or increased calcite precipitation resulting in a shortening of the duration of phytoplankton blooms. The current scenario of increasing LOS of temperature with climate change may lead to an alteration of phytoplankton phenological cycles resulting in blooms of shorter duration in lakes where nutrients become limiting. Satellite-derived information on lake temperature and Chl-a concentration proved essential in detecting trends at appropriate resolution over time.

scholarly journals A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 489-506
Author(s):  
Symeon Koumoutsaris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
The North ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Extreme cold weather events, such as the winter of 1962/63, the third coldest winter ever recorded in the Central England Temperature record, or more recently the winter of 2010/11, have significant consequences for the society and economy. This paper assesses the probability of such extreme cold weather across the United Kingdom (UK), as part of a probabilistic catastrophe model for insured losses caused by the bursting of pipes. A statistical model is developed in order to model the extremes of the Air Freezing Index (AFI), which is a common measure of the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures. A novel approach in the modelling of the spatial dependence of the hazard has been followed which takes advantage of the vine copula methodology. The method allows complex dependencies to be modelled, especially between the tails of the AFI distributions, which is important to assess the extreme behaviour of such events. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency of UK cold winters has also been taken into account. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events, such as the 1962/63 winter, has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, the model predicts that such an event is expected to become more uncommon, about 2 times less frequent, by the year 2030. Extreme cold spells in the UK have been found to be heavily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as well. A cold event is estimated to be ≈3–4 times more likely to occur during its negative phase than its positive phase. However, considerable uncertainty exists in these results, owing mainly to the short record length and the large interannual variability of the AFI.

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