scholarly journals Improving Spatial Landslide Prediction with 3D Slope Stability Analysis and Genetic Algorithm Optimization: Application to the Oltrepò Pavese

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 801
Author(s):  
Nunziarita Palazzolo ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Massimiliano Bordoni ◽  
Claudia Meisina ◽  
Enrico Creaco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
3D Model ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Slope Stability Analysis ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
3D Slope Stability

In this study, we compare infinite slope and the three-dimensional stability analysis performed by SCOOPS 3D (software to analyze three-dimensional slope stability throughout a digital landscape). SCOOPS 3D is a model proposed by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS), the potentialities of which have still not been investigated sufficiently. The comparison between infinite slope and 3D slope stability analysis is carried out using the same hydrological analysis, which is performed with TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability model)—another model proposed by USGS. The SCOOPS 3D model requires definition of a series of numerical parameters that can have a significant impact on its own performance, for a given set of physical properties. In the study, we calibrate these numerical parameters through a multi-objective optimization based on genetic algorithms to maximize the model predictability performance in terms of statistics of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) confusion matrix. This comparison is carried out through an application on a real case study, a catchment in the Oltrepò Pavese (Italy), in which the areas of triggered landslides were accurately monitored during an extreme rainfall on 27–28 April 2009. Results show that the SCOOPS 3D model performs better than the 1D infinite slope stability analysis, as the ROC True Skill Statistic increases from 0.09 to 0.37. In comparison to other studies, we find the 1D model performs worse, likely for the availability of less detailed geological data. On the other side, for the 3D model we find even better results than the two other studies present to date in the scientific literature. This is to be attributed to the optimization process we proposed, which allows to have a greater gain of performance passing from the 1D to the 3D simulation, in comparison to the above-mentioned studies, where no optimization has been applied. Thus, our study contributes to improving the performances of landslide models, which still remain subject to many uncertainty factors.

Comparison of the performance of spatial landslide prediction with TRIGRS1D and SCOOPS3D models and parameter optimization: application to the Oltrepò Pavese

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nunziarita Palazzolo ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Massimiliano Bordoni ◽  
Claudia Meisina ◽  
Enrico Creaco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Slope Stability Analysis ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
Infinite Slope Stability Model ◽  
Stability Model ◽  
Positive Rate

<p>Physically based models based on the combination of hydrological and slope stability models are important tools in spatial and temporal prediction of landslides, since they can be used for hazard mapping as an aid for land planning. In many applications, hydrological models are combined with very simple infinite slope stability analysis, given that multi-dimensional analysis is more computationally demanding. Only a few studies have attempted to apply such algorithms to the catchment scale. Thus, there is a need for more studies on this issue, also to understand the real advantages of applying multi-dimensional slope stability analysis in comparison with the one-dimensional. </p><p>This study aims to compare the performance of two different forecasting models, namely the infinite slope and the three-dimensional stability analysis by SCOOPS3D (Software to analyze three-dimensional slope stability throughout a digital landscape), a very efficient model proposed by USGS to be applied to the catchment scale, which has seldom been applied so far in the literature. In particular, TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-stability Model) is used for hydrological analysis.  Then the resulting pressure head field is used first as input to the infinite slope stability model embedded into TRIGRS program itself and then as input to SCOOPS3D. To calibrate the terrain stability-related parameters of either piece of software, a multi-objective optimization is proposed in this work to maximize the model predictability performance, in an attempt to optimize ROC performance statistics, i.e. to maximize the true positive rate while simultaneously minimizing the false positive rate.</p><p>The approach was applied to a real case study, a catchment in the Oltrepò Pavese (northern Italy), in which the areas of triggered landslides were accurately monitored during an extreme rainfall on 27-28 April, 2009, featuring 160 mm in 48 h. Compared to other works in the scientific literature, in which only a generic point of location of landslides was known, the present work benefits from the availability of a detailed landslide inventory containing observed landslide shapes.</p><p>The results point out the significantly better performance of  SCOOPS3D, in comparison with the infinite slope stability. Though SCOOPS3D seems to overestimate landslide prone areas, the 3D method is more realistic than the 1D method as far as the slip surface definition is concerned. Therefore, the proposed methodology, lying in the use of SCOOPS 3D with optimized parameters, can be a helpful tool for providing multiple landslide hazard maps for planning.</p>

Three-dimensional slope stability study using a Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang-Cing Liu ◽  
Chih-Hsuan Liu ◽  
Ching Hung
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Complex Geometry ◽  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Slope Stability Analysis ◽  
Stability Study ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
3D Slope Stability

<p>  In slope stability analysis, two-dimensional (2D) analysis techniques are usually applied due to its simplicity and extensive applicability. Given that slope failures are three-dimensional (3D) in nature, especially in the slope with complex geometry, a 3D slope stability analysis could lead to more reasonable results [1]. In slope stability analyses, limit equilibrium method (LEM) and finite element method (FEM) are widely used. Note that LEM only satisfies equations of statics and does not consider strain and displacement compatibility; FEM may encounter significant mesh distortion during large deformations where convergence difficulty and the analysis may be terminated before the slope reaches failure [2]. In the study, a Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) method, which allows materials to flow through fixed meshes regardless of distortions, was utilized to investigate 3D slope stability [3]. Validation of the numerical modeling was first presented using a typically assumed 3D slope. After the validation, various types of slopes (i.e. turning corners, convex- and concave-shaped surfaces) with various boundary conditions (unrestrained, semi-restrained, and fully restrained) are carefully conducted to examine the 3D slope stability. It is anticipated the 3D analyses can shed some light on the slope stability analysis with extreme or complex geometry cases and provide more reasonable results.</p><p> </p><p>REFERENCE</p><ol><li>T.-K. Nian, R.-Q. Huang, S.-S. Wan, and G.-Q. Chen (2012): Three-dimensional strength-reduction finite element analysis of slopes: geometric effects. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 49: 574–588.</li> <li>C. Hung, C.-H. Liu, G.-W. Lin and Ben Leshchinsky (2019): The Aso-Bridge coseismic landslide: a numerical investigation of failure and runout behavior using finite and discrete element methods. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment. doi: 10.1007/s10064-018-1309-3.</li> <li>C. Han. Lin, C. Hung and T.-Y. Hsu (2020): Investigations of granular material behaviors using coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian technique: From granular collapse to fluid-structure interaction. Computers and Geotechnics (under review).</li> </ol><p> </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals The Contribution of Particle Swarm Optimization to Three-Dimensional Slope Stability Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roohollah Kalatehjari ◽  
Ahmad Safuan A Rashid ◽  
Nazri Ali ◽  
Mohsen Hajihassani
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Slope Stability Analysis ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Finite Element Software ◽  
Soil Slopes ◽  
3D Slope Stability

Over the last few years, particle swarm optimization (PSO) has been extensively applied in various geotechnical engineering including slope stability analysis. However, this contribution was limited to two-dimensional (2D) slope stability analysis. This paper applied PSO in three-dimensional (3D) slope stability problem to determine the critical slip surface (CSS) of soil slopes. A detailed description of adopted PSO was presented to provide a good basis for more contribution of this technique to the field of 3D slope stability problems. A general rotating ellipsoid shape was introduced as the specific particle for 3D slope stability analysis. A detailed sensitivity analysis was designed and performed to find the optimum values of parameters of PSO. Example problems were used to evaluate the applicability of PSO in determining the CSS of 3D slopes. The first example presented a comparison between the results of PSO and PLAXI-3D finite element software and the second example compared the ability of PSO to determine the CSS of 3D slopes with other optimization methods from the literature. The results demonstrated the efficiency and effectiveness of PSO in determining the CSS of 3D soil slopes.

A simplified method for 3D slope stability analysis

2003 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 675-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuyu Chen ◽  
Hongliang Mi ◽  
Faming Zhang ◽  
Xiaogang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Slope Stability Analysis ◽  
Accurate Solution ◽  
The Moment ◽  
3D Slope Stability ◽  
Force Equilibrium

This paper presents a simplified three-dimensional (3D) slope stability analysis method based on the limit equilibrium theory. The assumption involved in this method is of a parallel intercolumn force inclination, similar to Spencer's method in the two-dimensional (2D) area. It allows for the satisfaction of complete overall force equilibrium conditions and the moment equilibrium requirement about the main axis of rotation. The method has been proven to be numerically tractable for many practical problems. By combining this method with the 3D upper bound approaches, it is possible to bracket the accurate solution of a 3D slope stability analysis problem into a small range.Key words: slope stability analysis, three-dimensional analysis, limit equilibrium method, upper bound method.

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