scholarly journals Future Flood Hazard Assessment for the City of Pamplona (Spain) Using an Ensemble of Climate Change Projections

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 792
Author(s):  
Marco Lompi ◽  
Luis Mediero ◽  
Enrica Caporali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The City ◽  
Peak Discharges

Understanding how the design hyetographs and floods will change in the future is essential for decision making in flood management plans. This study provides a methodology to quantify the expected changes in future hydraulic risks at the catchment scale in the city of Pamplona. It considers climate change projections supplied by 12 climate models, 7 return periods, 2 emission scenarios (representative concentration pathway RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), and 3 time windows (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2070–2100). The Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) distributed hydrological model is used to simulate rainfall-runoff processes at the catchment scale. The results point to a decrease in design peak discharges for return periods smaller than 10 years and an increase for the 500- and 1000-year floods for both RCPs in the three time windows. The emission scenario RCP 8.5 usually provides the greatest increases in flood quantiles. The increase of design peak discharges is almost 10–30% higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. Change magnitudes for the most extreme events seem to be related to the greenhouse gas emission predictions in each RCP, as the greatest expected changes are found in 2040 for the RCP 4.5 and in 2100 for the RCP 8.5.

Impact of climate change on floods in Pamplona (Spain) by using climate change projections and a distributed hydrological model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Lompi ◽  
Luis Mediero ◽  
Enrica Caporali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Flood Quantiles ◽  
Parameter Values

<p>Understanding how floods are expected to change is essential for decision making and flood risk management, as flood risks are expected to increase in the future. Several studies have analysed the impact of climate change on flood risks with rainfall-runoff models and climate projections as input data. Nevertheless, most of these studies involve large-scale river basins instead of focusing on smaller river basins or points of interest like urban areas. This study quantifies the expected changes in flood quantiles at the River Arga in the city of Pamplona (Spain) within the SAFERDAMS project (PID2019-107027RB-I00) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. It uses climate change projections from 12 climate models of the EURO-CORDEX programme for two Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs as input data of the RIBS distributed hydrological model (Garrote and Bras 1995 ab, JoH). The analysis considers seven return periods (2, 5, 10, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years), two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and three time windows (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2070-2100).</p><p>First, the RIBS model has been calibrated with a set of objective functions to minimise the bias between simulations and observations recorded at a streamflow-gauging station located in the Arga River in Pamplona. The seven greatest flood events occurred in Pamplona in the last decade are considered. A long set of random combinations of model parameter values are used. The combination of parameter values that led to the smallest errors were selected.</p><p>Second, 24-h design rainfall storms with a time step of 1 h in the current scenario at a set of rainfall gauge stations in the Arga River catchment are obtained by using an extreme frequency analysis. Expected changes in daily rainfall quantiles in the Arga River catchment obtained by processing climate change projections are used (Garijo and Mediero 2019, Water). Current and future design rainfall storms were obtained for the seven return periods, two RCPs and three time windows. The input data in the RIBS model are provided in a raster format. Hence, design rainfall storms were transformed into spatial distributions of precipitation with the Thiessen polygons technique.</p><p>The findings show a decrease in design peak discharges for return periods smaller than 10 years and an increase for the 500- and 1000-year floods for both RCPs in the three time windows. However, 50- and 100-year return period flood quantiles are expected to increase especially in the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows only in the emission scenario RCP8.5. The emission scenario RCP8.5 always provides greater increases in flood quantiles than RCP4.5, except for the more frequent floods (2, 5 and 10 years) in the time window 2011-2040. The increases of design discharges are 10-30% higher in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 for the greatest return periods. Therefore, flood magnitude changes for the most extreme events seem to be related to the evolution of greenhouse gasses emissions, following the same behaviour of the RCPs: the greatest expected changes are in the 2040 for the RCP4.5 and in the 2100 for the RCP8.5.</p>

Storm Sewer Infrastructure Planning with Climate Change Risk: The City of Alexandria Virginia Case Study

2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
L. van der Tak ◽  
P. Pasteris ◽  
L. Traynham ◽  
C. Salas ◽  
T. Ajello ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Design Criteria ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Current Design ◽  
The City ◽  
Storm Sewer

The City of Alexandria, Virginia, has experienced repeated and increasingly frequent flooding events attributable to old infrastructure, inconsistent design criteria, and perhaps climate change. The purpose of this project is to provide a program that, over a period of up to 5 years, will analyze storm sewer capacity issues, identify problem areas, develop and prioritize solutions, and provide support for public outreach and education. The purpose of the first task was to review and propose revisions to the City's stormwater design criteria, including benchmarking of design criteria from neighboring jurisdictions, updated precipitation frequency results, evaluation of climate change risk. This paper summarizes potential changes in intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) values, as well as sea level rise values, that were determined based on the results of general climate models paired with a range (low to high) in greenhouse gas emission scenarios. In addition, modeling of stormwater capacity under current design storm and projected storm intensity for the year 2100 are presented.

scholarly journals Climate Change Influences of Temporal and Spatial Drought Variation in the Andean High Mountain Basin

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Zhiña ◽  
Martín Montenegro ◽  
Lisseth Montalván ◽  
Daniel Mendoza ◽  
Juan Contreras ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Climate change threatens the hydrological equilibrium with severe consequences for living beings. In that respect, considerable differences in drought features are expected, especially for mountain-Andean regions, which seem to be prone to climate change. Therefore, an urgent need for evaluation of such climate conditions arises; especially the effects at catchment scales, due to its implications over the hydrological services. However, to study future climate impacts at the catchment scale, the use of dynamically downscaled data in developing countries is a luxury due to the computational constraints. This study performed spatiotemporal future long-term projections of droughts in the upper part of the Paute River basin, located in the southern Andes of Ecuador. Using 10 km dynamically downscaled data from four global climate models, the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) index was used for drought characterization in the base period (1981–2005) and future period (2011–2070) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of CMIP5 project. Fitting a generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution, the change ratio of the magnitude, duration, and severity between the future and present was evaluated for return periods 10, 50, and 100 years. The results show that magnitude and duration dramatically decrease in the near future for the climate scenarios under analysis; these features presented a declining effect from the near to the far future. Additionally, the severity shows a general increment with respect to the base period, which is intensified with longer return periods; however, the severity shows a decrement for specific areas in the far future of RCP 4.5 and near future of RCP 8.5. This research adds knowledge to the evaluation of droughts in complex terrain in tropical regions, where the representation of convection is the main limitation of global climate models (GCMs). The results provide useful information for decision-makers supporting mitigating measures in future decades.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling in the tropical Andes: implications for water resources management

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1247-1258 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Buytaert ◽  
M. Vuille ◽  
A. Dewulf ◽  
R. Urrutia ◽  
A. Karmalkar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Tropical Andes ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Resources Management

Abstract. Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty.

Climate Change Projections in Latin America and the Caribbean: Review of Existing Regional Climate Models' Outputs

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramiro Alberto Ríos Flores ◽  
Alejandro Pablo Taddia ◽  
Alfred Grunwaldt ◽  
Russel Jones ◽  
Richard Streeter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
The Caribbean

scholarly journals Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga ◽  
Ladslaus Chang'a ◽  
George Djolov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

scholarly journals Contrasting dynamics of hydrological processes in the Volta River basin under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moctar Dembélé ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Natalie Ceperley ◽  
Sander J. Zwart ◽  
Josh Larsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Low Flow

Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of twelve general circulation models (GCM) from CMIP5 that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM-GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The corrected simulations are then used as input to the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the twenty-first century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting changes in the seasonality of rainfall depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High and low flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water-energy-food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socio-economic development.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation and hydrology in Finland – studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 2657-2706 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Olsson ◽  
J. Jakkila ◽  
N. Veijalainen ◽  
L. Backman ◽  
J. Kaurola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate and hydrology on catchment scale requires reliable information about the average values and climate fluctuations of the past, present and future. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in impact studies often produce biased time series of meteorological variables. In this study bias correction of RCM temperature and precipitation for Finland is carried out using different versions of distribution based scaling (DBS) method. The DBS adjusted RCM data is used as input of a hydrological model to simulate changes in discharges in four study catchments in different parts of Finland. The annual mean discharges and seasonal variation simulated with the DBS adjusted temperature and precipitation data are sufficiently close to observed discharges in the control period (1961–2000) and produce more realistic projections for mean annual and seasonal changes in discharges than the uncorrected RCM data. Furthermore, with most scenarios the DBS method used preserves the temperature and precipitation trends of the uncorrected RCM data during 1961–2100. However, if the biases in the mean or the SD of the uncorrected temperatures are large, significant biases after DBS adjustment may remain or temperature trends may change, increasing the uncertainty of climate change projections. The DBS method influences especially the projected seasonal changes in discharges and the use of uncorrected data can produce unrealistic seasonal discharges and changes. The projected changes in annual mean discharges are moderate or small, but seasonal distribution of discharges will change significantly.

scholarly journals Modeling Current and Future Climate Change in the UAE using Various GCMs in MarksimGCMR

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-64
Author(s):  
Latifa Saeed Al Blooshi ◽  
Sofyan Alyan ◽  
Ngaina Joshua Joshua ◽  
Taoufik Saleh Ksiksi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Gas Concentration ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Current Century ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Introduction: Changes in climate have impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Most countries, including the UAE, are expected to experience a huge impact of climate change, due to the undergoing rapid growth and huge urban developments. Materials & Methods: Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs, represent the latest generation of scenarios that are used as potential inputs into climate models to show imposed greenhouse-gas concentration pathways during the 21st century. Four emission scenarios have been used for climate research; namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 6 and RCP 8.5. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are used. The aims of this study are to assess different RCPs and their appropriateness to predict temperatures and rainfall and to study the effect of climate change on three different cities in the UAE. Results & Conclusion: The results show a strong correlation between the present Tmax vs Tmax 2020, Tmax 2040, Tmax 2060, Tmax 2080 and Tmax 2095 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This means that maximum temperatures are going to increase in the coming years based on the predictions according to the different scenarios using MarksimGCMR. Precipitation projections shows greater variation than temperature. In this paper the amount of increase in temperatures and precipitation change is shown for the end of the current century.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document