scholarly journals Interdecadal Variability in Myanmar Rainfall in the Monsoon Season (May–October) Using Eigen Methods

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 729
Author(s):  
Zin Mie Mie Sein ◽  
Irfan Ullah ◽  
Farhan Saleem ◽  
Xiefei Zhi ◽  
Sidra Syed ◽  
...  

In this study, we investigated the interdecadal variability in monsoon rainfall in the Myanmar region. The gauge-based gridded rainfall dataset of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climatic Research Unit version TS4.0 (CRU TS4.0) were used (1950–2019) to investigate the interdecadal variability in summer monsoon rainfall using empirical orthogonal function (EOF), singular value decomposition (SVD), and correlation approaches. The results reveal relatively negative rainfall anomalies during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, whereas strong positive rainfall anomalies were identified for the 1970s and 2010s. The dominant spatial variability mode showed a dipole pattern with a total variance of 47%. The power spectra of the principal component (PC) from EOF revealed a significant peak during decadal timescales (20–30 years). The Myanmar summer monsoon rainfall positively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and negatively correlated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The results reveal that extreme monsoon rainfall (flood) events occurred during the negative phase of the PDO and below-average rainfall (drought) occurred during the positive phase of the PDO. The cold phase (warm phase) of AMO was generally associated with negative (positive) decadal monsoon rainfall. The first SVD mode indicated the Myanmar rainfall pattern associated with the cold and warm phase of the PDO and AMO, suggesting that enhanced rainfall for about 53% of the square covariance fraction was related to heavy rain over the study region except for the central and eastern parts. The second SVD mode demonstrated warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific (El Niño pattern) and cold SST in the North Atlantic Ocean, implying a rainfall deficit of about 33% of the square covariance fraction, which could be associated with dry El Niño conditions (drought). The third SVD revealed that cold SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (La Niña pattern) caused enhance rainfall with a 6.7% square covariance fraction related to flood conditions. Thus, the extra-subtropical phenomena may affect the average summer monsoon trends over Myanmar by enhancing the cross-equatorial moisture trajectories into the North Atlantic Ocean.

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9097-9112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary Grunseich ◽  
Bin Wang

Abstract The fluctuation of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) has been associated with changes in ocean circulation, ecology, and Northern Hemisphere climate. Prediction of sea ice melting patterns is of great societal interest, but such prediction remains difficult because the factors controlling year-to-year sea ice variability remain unresolved. Distinct monsoon–Arctic teleconnections modulate summer Arctic SIC largely by changing wind-forced sea ice transport. East Asian monsoon rainfall produces a northward-propagating meridional Rossby wave train extending into the Siberian Arctic. The Indian summer monsoon excites an eastward-propagating circumglobal teleconnection along the subtropical jet, reaching the North Atlantic before bifurcating into the Arctic. The remote Asian monsoon variations induce a dominant dipole sea ice melt pattern in which the North Atlantic–European Arctic contrasts with the Siberian–North American Arctic. The monsoon-related sea ice variations are complementary and comparable in magnitude to locally forced Arctic Oscillation variability. The monsoon–Arctic link will improve seasonal prediction of summer Arctic sea ice and possibly explain long-term sea ice trends associated with the projected increase in Asian monsoon rainfall over the next century.


2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (12) ◽  
pp. 2792-2807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lianke te Raa ◽  
Jeroen Gerrits ◽  
Henk A. Dijkstra

Abstract The aim of this paper is to identify the physical mechanism of interdecadal variability in simulations of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation with the Modular Ocean Model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. To that end, a hierarchy of increasingly complex model configurations is used. The variability in the simplest case, that of viscous, purely thermally driven flows in a flat-bottom ocean basin with a box-shaped geometry, is shown to be caused by an internal interdecadal mode. The westward propagation of temperature anomalies and the phase difference between the anomalous zonal and meridional overturning that characterize the interdecadal mode are used as “fingerprints” of the physical mechanism of the variability. In this way, the variability can be followed toward a less viscous regime in which the effects of continental geometry and bottom topography are also included. It is shown that, although quantitative aspects of the variability like period and spatial pattern are changing, the physical mechanism of the interdecadal variability in the more complex simulations can be attributed to the same processes as in the simplest model configuration.


2018 ◽  
Vol 612 ◽  
pp. 1141-1148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Zhang ◽  
Yuanling Zhang ◽  
Qi Shu ◽  
Chang Zhao ◽  
Gang Wang ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 56 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2027-2056
Author(s):  
Sandra M. Plecha ◽  
Pedro M. M. Soares ◽  
Susana M. Silva-Fernandes ◽  
William Cabos

Eos ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 67 (44) ◽  
pp. 835 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. E. Esaias ◽  
G. C. Feldman ◽  
C. R. McClain ◽  
J. A. Elrod

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