scholarly journals Watershed-Scale, Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Water Resources Impacts from Climate Change

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Nick Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Watershed Scale ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Significant Change ◽  
Semi Arid

A framework for the assessment of relative risk to watershed-scale water resources from systemic changes is presented. It is composed of two experiments, or pathways, within a Monte Carlo structure and provides quantification of prediction uncertainty. One simulation pathway is the no change, or null hypothesis, experiment, and the other provides simulation of the hypothesized system change. Each pathway uses a stochastic weather generator and a deterministic water balance model. For climate change impact analysis, the framework is calibrated so that the differences between thirty-year average precipitation and temperature pathway values reproduce climate trends. Simulated weather provides forcing for identical water balance models. Probabilistic time histories of differences in actual evapotranspiration, runoff, and recharge provide likelihood per magnitude change to water resources availability. The framework is applied to a semi-arid watershed in Texas. Projected climate trends for the site are a 3 °C increase in average temperature and corresponding increase in potential evapotranspiration, no significant change in average annual precipitation, and a semi-arid classification from 2011–2100. Two types of water balance model are used in separate applications: (1) monthly water balance and (2) daily distributed parameter. Both implementations predict no significant change, on average, to actual evapotranspiration, runoff, or recharge from 2011–2100 because precipitation is unchanged on average. Increases in extreme event intensity are represented for future conditions producing increased water availability during infrequent events.

The Effect of Climate Change on River Flow and Snow Cover in the NOPEX Area Simulated by a Simple Water Balance Model

1997 ◽  
Vol 28 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 273-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
C-Y Xu ◽  
Sven Halldin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Annual Runoff

Within the next few decades, changes in global temperature and precipitation patterns may appear, especially at high latitudes. A simple monthly water-balance model of the NOPEX basins was developed and used for the purposes of investigating the effects on water availability of changes in climate. Eleven case study catchments were used together with a number of climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on average annual runoff depended on the ratio of average annual runoff to average annual precipitation, with the greatest sensitivity in the catchments with lowest runoff coefficients. A 20% increase in annual precipitation resulted in an increase in annual runoff ranging from 31% to 51%. The greatest changes in monthly runoff were in winter (from December to March) whereas the smallest changes were found in summer. The time of the highest spring flow changed from April to March. An increase in temperature by 4°C greatly shortened the time of snow cover and the snow accumulation period. The maximum amount of snow during these short winters diminished by 50% for the NOPEX area even with an assumed increase of total precipitation by 20%.

scholarly journals Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 57-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wegehenkel ◽  
U. Heinrich ◽  
H. Jochheim ◽  
K. C. Kersebaum ◽  
B. Röber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951–2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961–2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950–2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.

scholarly journals Allowing the Actual Evapotranspiration Uncertainty in Hydrological Models: Coupling of Interval-Based Water Balance and METRIC Models

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Khodadadi ◽  
Tarokh Maleki Roozbahani ◽  
Mercedeh Taheri ◽  
Fatemeh Ganji ◽  
Mohsen Nasseri
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Classical Type ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
North Of Iran ◽  
Monthly Water Balance

Abstract Against the paramount role of actual evapotranspiration (ET) in hydrological modeling, determining its values is mixed with different sources of uncertainties. In addition, estimation of ET with energy-based methods (e.g., METRIC) leads to different results with various acceptable initial and boundary conditions (such as land use and cold/hot pixels). The aim of the current research is to allow the uncertainty effects of ET as an interval-based input variable in hydrological modeling. The goal is achieved via feeding the uncertainty of computed ET values to the developed Interval-Based Water Balance (IBWB) model in terms of gray values. To this purpose, the comprehensive monthly water balance model (including surface and groundwater modules) has been revised to a new interval-based form. Moreover, the METRIC model has been used 20 times in each month of computational period to calculate the ET patterns with different hot/cold pixels to provide monthly ensemble ET values. For a comprehensive assessment, the selected water balance model has been calibrated with ensemble means of the computed ET with its classical type. The study area is a mountainous sub-basin of the Sefidrood watershed, Ghorveh-Dehgolan basin, with three alluvial aquifers in the North of Iran. Not only the paradigm shift from determinist to interval-based hydrologic structure improved the statistical metrics of the models’ responses, but also it decreased the uncertainty of the simulated streamflow and groundwater levels.

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