scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Frequency of Dynamic Breakup Events and on the Risk of Ice-Jam Floods in Quebec, Canada

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benoit Turcotte ◽  
Brian Morse ◽  
Gabriel Pelchat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

In cold regions, every year, river-ice jams generate sudden, surprising, intense flooding that challenges the capacity of public security services. This type of flood is commonly unpredictable and often appears chaotic because its occurrence depends on multiple, interacting weather, hydrological, ice and morphological parameters. This paper presents the findings of a research project assessing how climate change impacts dynamic river-ice breakup and associated floods along seven rivers of the province of Quebec, Canada. A combination of empirical river-ice breakup models, state-of-the-art hydrological simulations and standardized climate projections was used to estimate the historical (1972–2000) and future (2042–2070) frequencies of dynamic breakup events. Ice jam flood damage reimbursement data were used to predict changes to financial risk associated with dynamic breakup events. Results show that, overall, ice-jam floods will generate more damage in the future, which justifies watershed-based flood adaptation plans that take into account cold regions hydrological processes. The success of the methodology also sets the table for a comparable project that would include more rivers from different regions of Northeastern America.

River ice breakup processes: recent advances and future directions

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 703-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Mitigation Methods

The breakup of the winter ice cover is a brief but seminal event in the regime of northern rivers, and in the life cycle of river and basin ecosystems. Breakup ice jams can cause extreme flood events, with major impacts on riverside communities, aquatic life, infrastructure, navigation, and hydropower generation. Related concerns are underscored by the issue of climate change and the faster warming that is predicted for northern parts of the globe. Advances in knowledge of breakup processes and related topics, achieved over the past 15 years or so, are outlined. They pertain to breakup initiation and ice-jam formation, ice-jam properties and numerical modelling of ice jams, waves generated by ice-jam releases, forecasting and mitigation methods, sediment transport, ecological aspects, and climate-change impacts. Major knowledge gaps are associated with the dynamic interaction of moving ice with the flow and with the stationary ice cover. Increasing computing capacity and remote sensing sophistication are expected to provide effective means for bridging these gaps. Key words: climate, ecology, forecasting, ice jam, modelling, onset, sediment, wave.

Modelling climatic impacts on ice-jam floods: a review of current models, modelling capabilities, challenges, and future prospects.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apurba Das ◽  
Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Climatic Impacts ◽  
Current Modelling

River ice is an important hydraulic and hydrological component of many rivers in the high northern latitudes of the world. It controls the hydraulic characteristics of streamflow, affects the geomorphology of channels, and can cause flooding due to ice-jam formation during ice-cover freeze-up and breakup periods. In recent decades, climate change has considerably altered ice regimes, affecting the severity of ice-jam flooding. Although many approaches have been developed to model river ice regimes and the severity of ice jam flooding, appropriate methods that account for impacts of the future climate on ice-jam flooding have not been well established. Therefore, the main goals of this study are to review the current knowledge of climate change impacts on river ice processes and to assess the current modelling capabilities to determine the severity of ice jams under future climatic conditions. Finally, a conceptual river ice-jam modelling approach is presented for incorporating climate change impacts on ice jams.

Ice jam mitigation

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 675-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold S. Belore ◽  
Brian C. Burrell ◽  
Spyros Beltaos
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup

In Canada, flooding due to the rise in water levels upstream of an ice jam, or the temporary exceedance of the flow and ice-carrying capacity of a channel upon release of an ice jam, has resulted in the loss of human life and extensive economic losses. Ice jam mitigation is a component of river ice management which includes all activities carried out to prevent or remove ice jams, or to reduce the damages that may result from an ice jam event. This paper presents a brief overview of measures to mitigate the damaging effects of ice jams and contains a discussion on their application to Canadian rivers. Key words: controlled ice breakup, flood control, ice jams, ice management, river ice.

Midwinter breakup and jamming on the upper Saint John River: a case study

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Beltaos ◽  
Sayed Ismail ◽  
Brian C Burrell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Damage Reduction ◽  
Saint John

Changing climates will likely result in more frequent midwinter ice jams along many Canadian rivers, thereby increasing the likelihood of flood damage and environmental changes. Therefore, the possibility of more frequent ice jams has to be considered during the planning of flood damage reduction measures, the design of waterway structures, and the enactment of measures to protect the environment. As a case study of midwinter jamming, four winter breakup and jamming events that occurred along an upper stretch of the Saint John River during the 1990s are described and the implications of similar midwinter jamming are discussed.Key words: breakup, river ice, climate change, ice jamming, ice thickness, winter, winter thaw.

scholarly journals River predisposition to ice jams: a simplified geospatial model

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1033-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stéphane De Munck ◽  
Yves Gauthier ◽  
Monique Bernier ◽  
Karem Chokmani ◽  
Serge Légaré
Keyword(s):  
False Negative ◽  
Channel Morphology ◽  
River Channel ◽  
Geospatial Data ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Broken Ice

Abstract. Floods resulting from river ice jams pose a great risk to many riverside municipalities in Canada. The location of an ice jam is mainly influenced by channel morphology. The goal of this work was therefore to develop a simplified geospatial model to estimate the predisposition of a river channel to ice jams. Rather than predicting the timing of river ice breakup, the main question here was to predict where the broken ice is susceptible to jam based on the river's geomorphological characteristics. Thus, six parameters referred to potential causes for ice jams in the literature were initially selected: presence of an island, narrowing of the channel, high sinuosity, presence of a bridge, confluence of rivers, and slope break. A GIS-based tool was used to generate the aforementioned factors over regular-spaced segments along the entire channel using available geospatial data. An ice jam predisposition index (IJPI) was calculated by combining the weighted optimal factors. Three Canadian rivers (province of Québec) were chosen as test sites. The resulting maps were assessed from historical observations and local knowledge. Results show that 77 % of the observed ice jam sites on record occurred in river sections that the model considered as having high or medium predisposition. This leaves 23 % of false negative errors (missed occurrence). Between 7 and 11 % of the highly predisposed river sections did not have an ice jam on record (false-positive cases). Results, limitations, and potential improvements are discussed.

Damage resulting from a sudden river ice breakup

1988 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 609-615 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. F. Doyle
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Melting Snow ◽  
Ice Breakup

On January 4, 1984, the Nicola River and its two main tributaries broke up suddenly due to a sharp increase in discharge from a rain-on-melting-snow event while the ice cover was still thick and strong. The resulting ice run and attendant jamming caused hundreds of thousands of dollars in damage to public and private property, including the destruction of a bridge and several riprapped banks. Four ice jams remained in place for up to a week after the ice drive. All the damage was due either to the severe ice run within the channel or to flow forced out over the floodplain by ice jams. Key words: flood damage, ice run, ice breakup, ice jams, riprap.

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1593-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

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