scholarly journals Decomposition and Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alteration of the Dongting Lake in China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2729
Author(s):  
Yuyun Huang ◽  
Minghui Yu ◽  
Haoyong Tian ◽  
Yujiao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Dongting Lake ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Depth

The runoff process in the Dongting Lake has been influenced by climate change and human activities in recent decades. To manage the Dongting Lake efficiently and exploit water resources properly under the background of water shortage, it is desired to detect the factors of runoff change in the Dongting Lake. Hydro-meteorological data from 1961 to 2019 are analyzed to reveal the climate change and runoff alteration of the Dongting Lake comprehensively. Mutation test is used to detect the change points of runoff depth series, finding that 1984 and 2005 are change points and therefore 1961–1983, 1984–2004, and 2005–2019 are regarded as baseline period (BP), period 1 (P1), and period 2 (P2), respectively. Eight methods are used to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of human activities and climate change on runoff variation. It reveals that climate change especially precipitation change plays the dominant role (climate change makes runoff depth increase 70.14–121.51 mm, human activities make runoff depth decrease 51.98–103.35 mm) in runoff alteration in P1 while human activities play a prime role (account for 88.47–93.17%) in P2. Human activities such as reservoir construction, water consumption, and land-use (land-cover) change may be the main factors that influence the runoff in the Dongting Lake in P2. According to the sensitivity analysis, runoff in the Dongting Lake is more sensitive to climate change in P2 compared with that in P1, and no matter in P1 or P2, runoff is more sensitive to change in precipitation than the change in potential evapotranspiration. Combined with climate forecast, the results of sensitivity analysis can be used to estimate runoff change caused by climate change in the future.

scholarly journals Streamflow into Beijing and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities over the Period 1956–2016

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Mu ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
Guohua He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Human Effects

Streamflow is likely affected by climate change and human activities. In this study, hydro-meteorological data from six rivers upstream of Beijing, namely, the Yongdinghe, Baihe, Heihe, Chaohe, Juhe, and Jumahe Rivers, were analyzed to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow and their responses to climate change and human activities over the period of 1956–2016. The Mann–Kendall test and moving t-test were used to detect trends and changing points of the annual streamflow. Results showed that the streamflow into Beijing experienced a statistically significant downward trend (p < 0.05), abruptly changing after the early 1980s, owing to climate and human effects. The climate elasticities of the streamflow showed that a 10% decrease in precipitation would result in a 24.5% decrease in total streamflow, whereas a 10% decrease in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 37.7% increase in total streamflow. Human activities accounted for 87% of the reduction in total streamflow, whereas 13% was attributed to climate change. Lastly, recommendations are provided for adaptive management of water resources at different spatial scales.

scholarly journals Attribution of Runoff Variation in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (14) ◽  
pp. 2506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junlong Liu ◽  
Jin Chen ◽  
Jijun Xu ◽  
Yuru Lin ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Test Method ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Runoff Depth

Quantifying the contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is of great importance for water resource management, sustainable water resource utilization, and sustainable development of society. In this study, hydrological and climatic data from hydrological and meteorological stations in the headwaters of the Yangtze River (YRHA) from 1966 to 2013 were used to quantitatively attribute the runoff change to the impacts of climate change and human activities separately. Firstly, the change trends in precipitation, runoff depth and potential evapotranspiration were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall test method. Three methods, secondly, including ordered clustering, Mann-Kendall and cumulative anomaly curve were adopted to detect the change points of runoff at Zhimenda hydrological station and partition the whole study period into two sub-periods at the change point (base and impacted periods). Then, the elasticity coefficient method based on the Budyko hypothesis was applied to calculate elasticity coefficients of runoff to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and land use/cover during the two periods, and to evaluate the contributions of climate change and human activities. Results indicated that during 1966–2013, runoff depth, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration all showed a significant increasing trend, with increasing rates of 7.26 mm decade−1, 18.725 mm decade−1 and 7.228 mm decade−1, respectively. One change point (2004) was detected for the annual runoff, and 1966–2003 and 2004–2013 were respectively identified as base and impacted periods. The results of elasticity coefficients showed that the runoff depth was most sensitive to the change of precipitation during the two periods. The relative contributions of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and parameter n to runoff changes were 99.7%, −6.08% and 3.88%, respectively. Furthermore, the coupled contribution rate of other factors was less than 2.5%. Generally, results indicated that precipitation is the main factor on the historical runoff changes in this basin.

scholarly journals The Characteristics of Runoff Process Structure Changes under the Influence of Climate Change and Human Activities and the Decomposition of Contribution Rate of Impact Factors

Geofluids ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Xiaoyuan Song ◽  
Zhongyuan Zhu ◽  
XiaoKang Xi ◽  
Guibin Zhang ◽  
Hailong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Coefficient ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Uneven Distribution ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Adjustment Coefficient ◽  
Contribution Rate

The research of the runoff structure and its influencing factors in the Xilinhe River Basin not only provides indispensable basic data for the economic development, but also has long-term significance for the protection of grasslands. Based on the runoff data of Xilinhot Hydrological Station from 1960 to 2010 and the daily meteorological data of three surrounding weather stations from 1960 to 2010, the paper calculated the potential evapotranspiration with Penman’s formula and used the combination of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt to diagnose the variation points of characteristic value of runoff distribution during the year. The cumulant slope change rate method is used to quantitatively analyze the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the uneven distribution coefficient and the complete adjustment coefficient of runoff during the year. The results show that (1) the monthly distribution of runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin is obviously “bimodal” during the year, and the uneven coefficient, complete adjustment coefficient, and concentration in the 2000s are significantly higher than those of 60s-90s. (2) In 1998, the coefficient of uneven distribution of runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin and the coefficient of complete adjustment both showed abrupt changes. (3) Climate change and human activities contributed 11.48% and 88.52% and 9.35% and 90.65% to the uneven distribution coefficient and the complete adjustment coefficient, respectively, of the runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin. Human activities are the main driving factors for changes in the distribution of runoff in the Xilinhe River Basin during the year.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Using Climate Elasticity Method and General Circulation Model (GCM) in the Buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 4968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moldir Rakhimova ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Sanim Bissenbayeva ◽  
Yerbolat Mukanov ◽  
Khusen Sh. Gafforov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Downstream Area

The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 °C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection.

scholarly journals Response of LUCC on Runoff Generation Process in Middle Yellow River Basin: The Gushanchuan Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Hu ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
Qiang Wu ◽  
Shan-e-hyder Soomro ◽  
Shengqi Jian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Significant Downward Trend

Runoff reduction in most river basins in China has become a hotpot in recent years. The Gushanchuan river, a primary tributary of the middle Yellow river, Northern China, showed a significant downward trend in the last century. Little is known regarding the relative contributions of changing environment to the observed hydrological trends and response on the runoff generation process in its watershed. On the basis of observed hydrological and meteorological data from 1965–2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test and climate elasticity method were used to distinguish the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Gushanchuan basin. The results indicate that the runoff in the Gushanchuan Basin has experienced significant declines as large as 77% from 1965 to 2010, and a mutation point occurred around 1997; the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change is 12.9–15.1%, and the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is 84.9–87.1%. Then we divided long-term data sequence into two stages around the mutation point, and analyzed runoff generation mechanisms based on land use and cover changes (LUCC). We found that the floods in the Gushanchuan Basin were still dominated by Excess-infiltration runoff, but the proportion in 1965–1997 and 1998–2010 decreased gradually (68.46% and 45.83% in turn). The proportion of Excess-storage runoff and Mixed runoff has increased, which means that the runoff is made up of more runoff components. The variation law of the LUCC indicates that the forest area increased by 49.61%, the confluence time increased by 50.42%, and the water storage capacity of the watershed increased by 30.35%.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change and human activity on the runoff in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River, Northwest China

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Jianhua Xu ◽  
Zhongsheng Chen ◽  
Benfu Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Shiyang River Basin ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Increasing Trend

Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of the upper reaches of Shiyang River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2009, this paper analyzed the change in runoff and its related climatic factors, and estimated the contribution of climate change and human activity to runoff change by using the moving T test, cumulative analysis of anomalies and multiple regression analysis. The results showed that temperature revealed a significant increasing trend, and potential evaporation capacity decreased significantly, while precipitation increased insignificantly in the past recent 50 years. Although there were three mutations in 1975, 1990 and 2002 respectively, runoff presented a slight decreasing trend in the whole period. The contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff change during the period of 1976-2009 were 45% and 55% respectively.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical arid watershed, NW China

2021 ◽  
Vol 121 ◽  
pp. 107013
Author(s):  
Dongxiang Xue ◽  
Junju Zhou ◽  
Xi Zhao ◽  
Chunfang Liu ◽  
Wei Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Nw China ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals The Effect of Climate Change on Linolenic Fatty Acid in Oilseed Rape

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 2003
Author(s):  
Marek Wójtowicz ◽  
Andrzej Wójtowicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linolenic Acid ◽  
Oilseed Rape ◽  
Acid Content ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Linolenic Acid Content ◽  
Direct Influence ◽  
Simulation Results

Linolenic acid content plays a significant role in the quality of oilseed rape oil. With the use of a model developed to calculate linolenic acid content depending on temperature, we performed simulations focused on the predicted changes of linolenic acid content triggered by expected climate change. The aim of the study was realized with the use of meteorological data recorded at 16 locations, representing 16 provinces in Poland, in the period of 1986–2005, and values obtained after the transformation of the recorded data to reflect temperature changes in four different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) according to the gfdl_esm2m climate model. The results of the simulations performed under all tested scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for all analyzed periods (2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079, 2080–2099) indicate a reduction of linolenic acid content as an effect of climate change. The comparison of simulation results obtained with and without allowing for the influence of temperature on oilseed rape development revealed the dominant role of direct influence in modifying the linolenic acid content. An analysis of the results also indicated how indirect influence of climate change, as expressed in changes of linolenic acid content generated by the acceleration of oilseed rape maturation, reduces the direct influence of climate change, expressed in changes of linolenic acid content caused by temperature. Additionally, simulation results point to opportunities, triggered by climate change, for a diversity of regions in terms of linolenic acid content in comparison to the years of 1986–2005.

scholarly journals Copula-Based Abrupt Variations Detection in the Relationship of Seasonal Vegetation-Climate in the Jing River Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 1628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhao ◽  
Shengzhi Huang ◽  
Qiang Huang ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
The Relationship

Understanding the changing relationships between vegetation coverage and precipitation/temperature (P/T) and then exploring their potential drivers are highly necessary for ecosystem management under the backdrop of a changing environment. The Jing River Basin (JRB), a typical eco-environmentally vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, was chosen to identify abrupt variations of the relationships between seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and P/T through a copula-based method. By considering the climatic/large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and human activities, the potential causes of the non-stationarity of the relationship between NDVI and P/T were revealed. Results indicated that (1) the copula-based framework introduced in this study is more reasonable and reliable than the traditional double-mass curves method in detecting change points of vegetation and climate relationships; (2) generally, no significant change points were identified during 1982–2010 at the 95% confidence level, implying the overall stationary relationship still exists, while the relationships between spring NDVI and P/T, autumn NDVI and P have slightly changed; (3) teleconnection factors (including Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Niño 3.4, and sunspots) have a more significant influence on the relationship between seasonal NDVI and P/T than local climatic factors (including potential evapotranspiration and soil moisture); (4) negative human activities (expansion of farmland and urban areas) and positive human activities (“Grain For Green” program) were also potential factors affecting the relationship between NDVI and P/T. This study provides a new and reliable insight into detecting the non-stationarity of the relationship between NDVI and P/T, which will be beneficial for further revealing the connection between the atmosphere and ecosystems.

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