scholarly journals Rainfall Prediction in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil Using Generalized Additive Models

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2478
Author(s):  
Leydson G. Dantas ◽  
Carlos A. C. dos Santos ◽  
Ricardo A. de Olinda ◽  
José I. B. de Brito ◽  
Celso A. G. Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Warning System ◽  
The State ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Tropical Region ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Semi Arid Region

The state of Paraíba is part of the semi-arid region of Brazil, where severe droughts have occurred in recent years, resulting in significant socio-economic losses associated with climate variability. Thus, understanding to what extent precipitation can be influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the tropical region can help, along with a monitoring system, to set up an early warning system, the first pillar in drought management. In this study, Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) were used to filter climatic indices with higher predictive efficiency and, as a result, to perform rainfall predictions. The results show the persistent influence of tropical SST patterns in Paraíba rainfall, the tropical Atlantic Ocean impacting the rainfall distribution more effectively than the tropical Pacific Ocean. The GAMLSS model showed predictive capability during summer and southern autumn in Paraíba, highlighting the JFM (January, February and March), FMA (February, March and April), MAM (March, April and May), and AMJ (April, May and June) trimesters as those with the highest predictive potential. The methodology demonstrates the ability to be integrated with regional forecasting models (ensemble). Such information has the potential to inform decisions in multiple sectors, such as agriculture and water resources, aiming at the sustainable management of water resources and resilience to climate risk.

Participatory and decentralized water resources management: challenges and perspectives for the North Paraíba River Basin committee – Brazil

2012 ◽  
Vol 66 (9) ◽  
pp. 2007-2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. F. M. Ribeiro ◽  
Z. M. C. L. Vieira ◽  
M. M. R. Ribeiro
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
The State ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Participatory Management ◽  
Water Users ◽  
The North ◽  
State Water ◽  
Executive Agency

The Brazilian Water Resources Policy (Law 9433/1997) establishes participatory and decentralized management, involving civil society, water users and governmental bodies, with the basin committees as the basis of this process. Fifteen years after its implementation, it is possible to perceive accomplishments, but, at the same time, there are some difficulties in regards to the operation of the basin committees in the country. Considering the North Paraíba River Basin – which is completely included in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil, and presents great social and economic importance for the state – this article analyzes the process of formation, installation and functioning of its Basin Committee (CBH-PB), focusing on its composition, the reasons for the mobilization and demobilization of its members, the intra-relations between segments, and the inter-relations between the CBH-PB and other entities of the State Water Management System (the Water Executive Agency and the State Water Resources Council). The level of decentralization and the quality of participatory management (as it is being performed at the CBH-PB) are discussed and guidelines are suggested in order to allow greater effectiveness to the committee.

scholarly journals New records of social wasps in the state of Paraíba, Brazil

Check List ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1600
Author(s):  
Thiago Elisei ◽  
Fabio Albuquerque ◽  
Sergio Andena ◽  
Celso Martins
Keyword(s):  
New Records ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Social Wasps ◽  
The State ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Ecological Group ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
First Time ◽  
Semi Arid

The state of Paraíba is included in the semi-arid region of Northeastern Brazil, called Caatinga, and this region is characterized by low and irregular rainfall, with xerophilous vegetation. Social wasps are an important ecological group, which has been utilized for biological control and as bioindicators of environmental quality. Few studies about the diversity of social wasps were accomplished in the Caatinga and there is no survey of social wasps in the state of Paraiba. This study used data collected from city of Sumé, through field research and analysis of previously deposited material from surveys realized by Brazilian Corporation of Agricultural Research (EMBRAPA). Two species of social wasps, Polistes simillimus and Mischocyttarus cearensis, were recorded for the first time in state of Paraiba.

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with BoHV-1 and BVDV seropositivity in buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) from the State of Paraiba, Northeastern Brazil

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 1929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leise Gomes Fernandes ◽  
Carla Lauise Rodrigues Menezes Pimenta ◽  
Edviges Maristela Pituco ◽  
Arthur Willian de Lima Brasil ◽  
Sérgio Santos de Azevedo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
The State ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Herpesvirus Type ◽  
Diarrhea Virus ◽  
Factors Associated

This study aimed to identify the risk factors associated with Bovine Herpesvirus Type 1 (BoHV-1) and Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) infections in buffaloes in the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil, using 136 female buffaloes ? 24 months old from 14 herds. For the serological diagnosis of the BoHV-1 and BVDV infections, the virus-neutralization test (VN) was used and in each herd, an epidemiological questionnaire was applied in order to obtain data to be used in the risk factor analysis. Of the 136 animals 86 (63.2%) were positive for BoHV-1 and 12 (8.8%) for BVDV. The presence of watering points (odds ratio = 17.68; 95% CI = 3.74 – 83.04) was identified as risk factor for BoHv-1, and animal purchasing was a risk factor for both BoHV-1 (odds ratio = 68.64; 95% CI = 12.28 – 383.73) and BVDV (odds ratio = 3.64; 95% CI = 1.04 – 12.76). The results from the present study showed an evidence of the presence of BoHV-1 and BVDV infections in buffaloes from the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil. It is suggested that control and prevention measures should be adopted, such as the use of diagnostic tests prior to animal purchasing and the use of vaccines to avoid the introduction of infected animals into the herds and the consequent dissemination of the infections, minimizing economic losses.

scholarly journals Histomoniasis in Peacock (Pavo cristatus) in the Potiguar Semiarid

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Caroline Freitas Caetano de Sousa ◽  
Gabriela Rebouças de Oliveira ◽  
Hélio Noberto de Araújo Júnior ◽  
Fabiano Rocha Prazeres Júnior ◽  
Caio Sérgio Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Loss ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Microbiological Analysis ◽  
Pavo Cristatus ◽  
History Of ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Semi Arid

Background: Histomoniasis is a disease caused by Histomonas meleagridis, a flagellated protozoan that can cause severe necrotizing hepatitis and typhlitis in several bird species. The disease has a cosmopolitan distribution. In experimental infection, peacocks (Pavo spp.) showed susceptibility to histomoniasis, however there are few reports on natural histomoniasis in this species. In northeastern Brazil, reports about its occurrence in avian species are scarce and nonexistent in peacocks. Therefore, this report aims to describe the epidemiological and clinicopathological aspects of a histomoniasis case in a peacock (Pavo cristatus) in the Brazilian semiarid region.Case: A 3-month-old male peacock with a history of apathy and anorexia was attended in the Veterinary Hospital of the Universidade Federal Rural do Semi-Árido (UFERSA), Mossoró, RN, Brazil. The animal was raised extensively in a farm without basic sanitary measures, also with a history of living with animals of different species. After clinical examination, in which intense apathy and weight loss were confirmed, the bird was submitted to emergency therapeutic measures, however there was no clinical improvement and the bird died. At necropsy, intense diffuse bilateral necrotizing typhlitis and multifocal to coalescent necrotizing hepatitis were observed. Fragments of the organs were collected in 10% formaldehyde buffered with phosphate-saline buffer for histopathological analysis and cecal content were collected for microbiological analysis. Histopathology of the cecum revealed transmural necrotizing typhlitis associated with myriads of trophozoites morphologically compatible with Histomonas meleagridis. The same microorganisms observed in association with necrotizing hepatitis lesions, which allowed the diagnosis of histomoniasis. Also, the bacterium Pantoea agglomerans was isolated from the cecal content.Discussion: The macroscopic and microscopic findings allowed the diagnosis and the first recording of histomoniasis in peacock in the semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte. The bird was raised in an extensive breeding and without sanitary management, such as the use of anthelmintics, which may favor infection by the nematode Heterakis gallinarum, that’ transmits the protozoan Histomonas meleagridis. The contamination, which begins by the orofecal route, happens through the ingestion of eggs of the nematode contaminated with H. meleagridis that pass through the gastrointestinal tract, reaching the ceca and causing intense lesions in the organ, such as the bilateral transmural typhlitis that we observed in this case. From ceca, the protozoan has access to the bloodstream and reaches the liver, where it causes necrotic hepatitis, also present in the peacock. Both cecal and hepatic lesions were associated with myriads of microorganisms morphologically compatible with H. meleagridis, which allowed the diagnosis of the disease. The challenge in diagnosing this disease occurs mainly due to nonspecific clinical signs, such as apathy and weight loss, the only signs reported by the breeder and observed in this peacock. Confirmation of the occurrence of histomoniasis in any region is important to establish the disease among the differential diagnoses for the species, as in this case. Since this is the first report of peacock histomoniasis in the semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte, it is evident the need to consider the disease among possible diagnoses in cases of nonspecific symptoms and it also demonstrates the need to implement control and prophylaxis measures in peacock breeding aiming to avoid losses of birds and economic losses to the breeders and to promote quality of life to the animals.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Variability and Abundance of Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission in Central Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2453
Author(s):  
Luong Thi Nguyen ◽  
Huy Xuan Le ◽  
Dong Thanh Nguyen ◽  
Ha Quang Ho ◽  
Ting-Wu Chuang
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analyses

Dengue fever is an important arboviral disease in many countries. Its incidence has increased during the last decade in central Vietnam. Most dengue studies in Vietnam focused on the northern area (Hanoi) and southern regions but not on central Vietnam. Dengue transmission dynamics and relevant environmental risk factors in central Vietnam are not understood. This study aimed to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of dengue fever in central Vietnam and effects of climatic factors and abundance of mosquitoes on its transmission. Dengue and mosquito surveillance data were obtained from the Department of Vector Control and Border Quarantine at Nha Trang Pasteur Institute. Geographic Information System and satellite remote sensing techniques were used to perform spatiotemporal analyses and to develop climate models using generalized additive models. During 2005–2018, 230,458 dengue cases were reported in central Vietnam. Da Nang and Khanh Hoa were two major hotspots in the study area. The final models indicated the important role of Indian Ocean Dipole, multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, and vector index in dengue transmission in both regions. Regional climatic variables and mosquito population may drive dengue transmission in central Vietnam. These findings provide important information for developing an early dengue warning system in central Vietnam.

scholarly journals STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR THE DAM ORÓS/CE FROM HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA USING PERCEPTRONS

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Beatriz Costa de Araújo ◽  
Silvrano Adonias Dantas Neto ◽  
Francisco de Assis Souza Filho
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
The North ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Great Relevance ◽  
Semi Arid Region

The modeling of seasonal and interannual streamflow forecasting at northeastern Brazil represents a great relevance problem to the use and management of water resources; which demands greater prediction ability models. This is still a difficult task to solve due to the seasonal and interannual climate variability at the semi-arid region. This work presents the artificial neural networks (ANN) as an alternative for modeling the seasonal to interannual climate prediction,. For the development of this task the hydropraphic Oros weir Basin was chosen due to its importance as water resources in the State of Ceara. According to recent studies, the temperatures of the North Atlantic, South Atlantic and equatorial Pacific can be satisfactorily as predictors for the Northeast climate. The proposed model predicts, in July, the next rainy season (January to June) river flow regime. This time frame is of great relevance for the allocation of water resources. Among the studied models, those using the average temperature anomalies of April, May and June preceding the predicted year as input data showed the highest Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency (0.80).

scholarly journals First record of Pallenopsis fluminensis (Krøyer, 1844) (Pycnogonida: Pallenopsidae) for the coast of the state of Paraíba (northeastern Brazil)

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Rudá Amorim Lucena ◽  
Silvio Felipe B. Lima ◽  
Martin Lindsey Christoffersen
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
First Record ◽  
The State ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Tropical Region ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
The Family ◽  
Fourth Species ◽  
Distal Border

<p align="justify">Uma espécie de picnogonídeo classificada na família Pallenopsidae Fry, 1978 e no gênero Pallenopsis Wilson, 1881 é registrada neste estudo para a costa do estado da Paraíba (nordeste do Brasil), com base na identificação de três espécimes fêmeas coletadas na zona infralitoral em profundidades de 12 a 34 metros. Pallenopsis fluminensis (Krøyer, 1844) é a quarta espécie de Pycnogonida registrada para a região. Até então, apenas Anoplodactylus batangensis (Helfer, 1938), A. eroticus Stock, 1968 e A. mirim Lucena, Araújo &amp; Christoffersen, 2015 haviam sido registradas para a costa da Paraíba. Pallenopsis fluminensis é diagnosticada pelo tronco com setas pequenas na borda distal de cada segmento; probóscide com setas terminais; processos laterais com pequenas setas dorsais; palpos sem setas e reduzidos a um pequeno tubérculo; quela com muitas setas, palma 1.5 vezes mais longa que larga; ovígeros com oito artículos nas fêmeas, sendo os artículos 5 e 6 subiguais, e o 8 pouco menor que o 7; e a tíbia 1 sem uma cobertura densa de setas. Até o momento, P. fluminensis é a única congênere proveniente da costa Atlântica da América do Sul sem uma densa cobertura de setas sobre a tíbia 1.</p><p align="justify"><strong>Palavras chave</strong>: Arthropoda, Chelicerata, Pantopoda, Atlântico oeste, região tropical, zona costeira.</p><p align="justify"><strong>Abstract</strong>: A pycnogonid species classified in the family Pallenopsidae Fry, 1978 and the genus Pallenopsis Wilson, 1881 is recorded in this study for the coast of the state of Paraíba in northeastern Brazil based on the identification of three female specimens collected from the infralittoral zone at depths of 12 to 34 meters. Pallenopsis fluminensis (Krøyer, 1844) is the fourth species of Pycnogonida recorded for the region. To date, only Anoplodactylus batangensis (Helfer, 1938), A. eroticus Stock, 1968 and A. mirim Lucena, Araújo &amp; Christoffersen, 2015 have been recorded for the coast of the state of Paraíba. Pallenopsis fluminensis is diagnosed by a trunk with small setae on the distal border of each segment; proboscis with terminal setae; lateral processes with small setae; palps without setae and reduced to a small knob; chela with many setae, palm 1.5 times longer than wide; ovigers with eight articles on females, articles 5 and 6 subequal and article 8 not much smaller than 7; and tibia 1 without dense cover of the setae. To date, P. fluminensis is the only congener from the Atlantic coast of South America without a dense cover of setae on tibia 1.</p><p align="justify"><strong>Key words</strong>: Arthropoda, Chelicerata, Pantopoda, Western Atlantic, tropical region, coastal zone.</p>

scholarly journals Detection and molecular characterization of Trypanosoma (Duttonella) vivax in dairy cattle in the state of Sergipe, northeastern Brazil

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 516-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osires Lustosa Eloi Vieira ◽  
Lucia Oliveira de Macedo ◽  
Marcos Antônio Bezerra Santos ◽  
José Augusto Bastos Afonso Silva ◽  
Carla Lopes de Mendonça ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dairy Cattle ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Buffy Coat ◽  
Feedlot Cattle ◽  
The State ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Blood Smears ◽  
Cattle Herds

Abstract Trypanosoma (Duttonella) vivax is an important cause of economic losses among feedlot cattle. These losses are related to the morbidity, mortality, reproductive issues and decreased production. It is known that the clinical signs observed in infections by this protozoon are similar to other hemoparasitosis, which difficult the diagnosis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to detect and molecularly characterize an outbreak of trypanosomiasis caused by T. (D.) vivax in dairy cattle in the municipality of São Miguel Aleixo, state of Sergipe, Brazil. Blood samples from cattle (n = 15) presenting clinical signs compatible with trypanosomiasis were collected and parasitological and molecular evaluated. Among the samples analyzed, 34% (5/15) were positive from blood smears, 60% (9/15) from the buffy coat method and 80% (12/15) from the molecular method. The DNA sequence obtained (659 bp) showed 99% similarity to T. (D.) vivax sequences that are available in the GenBank database. The presence of this protozoon in cattle herds is a problem for producers. Diagnosing trypanosomiasis is problematic because its evolution is similar to that of other parasitic blood diseases. In addition, this is the first report of infection by T. (D.) vivax in cattle in the state of Sergipe, northeastern Brazil.

scholarly journals Integration of a Network-Based and an Economy-Wide Water Model to Support Decision Making on Water Resources Planning and Management in Northeastern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Márcia M. G. Alcoforado de Moraes ◽  
Gerald N. Souza da Silva ◽  
Marcelo Pereira da Cunha ◽  
Nilena B. M. Dias ◽  
Terezinha F. Cardoso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Integrated Modeling ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Trade Offs

Allocation of Water Resources at the basin level is a critical issue for economic growth as well as for environmental sustainability. This study integrates network-based optimization with an Input-Output model, made available through a Spatial Decision Support System (HEAL), to support design and evaluation of water allocation policies. The innovative platform was applied to a case study using four-interlinked hydrographic basins in Northeastern of Brazil. The integrated modeling was able to measure broader socioeconomic impacts of decisions on reservoir volumes and water allocations at basin level, through indicators in a sectoral and regional scale, including ones associated with Sustainable Development Goals, such as the Water Use Efficiency (WUE) indicator. Results of the trade-offs between two scenarios, representative of the limits of performance of regulatory water instruments, were generated using the integrated modeling. They were compared with the Reference scenario for the base year (2011) and show that the economic sector most negatively affected by the regulatory instrument use is the industrial sector. Furthermore, the sugar and ethanol industry, main water users in the industrial sector (93.1% of the sector's water use) and less efficient (WUE 1.47 US$/m3 vs. 30.70 US$/m3 average of the sector) in the base year, maintain their percentage share of water use in the sector and even slightly expand it (93.2%), with slight efficiency gains (+2.3%). On the other hand, non-water-intensive industries, have their shares reduced (from 6.9 to 6.8%) and lose efficiency (−9.5%). Results of the same trade-offs by region showed that the largest proportional economic losses occur in the drier areas, damaging the economy, especially in the most industrialized municipalities with the highest GDPs. Integrated economic modeling can expand aspects involved in water security issues, assisting management by introducing socioeconomic impact measures, in a broader scale, associated with allocation decisions. Hydrological allocation criteria cannot distinguish between user efficiency and which economic sectors are using how much water. This results in economic and social losses. In water-scarce regions and with growing transfer needs, such as in the basins studied, adequate incentives, through management instruments designed based on economic theory, are essential to promote sustainable development.

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