scholarly journals A Holistic Modelling Approach for the Estimation of Return Levels of Peak Flows in Bavaria

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2349
Author(s):  
Florian Willkofer ◽  
Raul R. Wood ◽  
Fabian von Trentini ◽  
Jens Weismüller ◽  
Benjamin Poschlod ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Robust Modelling ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Modelling Approach

This study introduces a holistic approach for the hydrological modelling of peak flows for the major Bavarian river basins, referred to as Hydrological Bavaria. This approach, intended to develop a robust modelling framework to support water resources management under climate change conditions, comprises a regionalized parameterization of the water balance simulation model (WaSiM) for 98 catchments in high temporal (3 h) and spatial (500 m) resolution using spatially coherent information and an automatized calibration (dynamically dimensioned search–simulated annealing, DDS-SA) for storage components. The performance of the model was examined using common metrics (Nash & Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE)). The simulations provided the means for the calculation of a level of trust (LOT) by comparing observed and simulated high flows with a five, ten, and 20-year return period. These estimates were derived by the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) applying the peak over threshold (POT) sampling method. Results show that the model overall performs well with regard to the selected objective measures, but also exhibits regional disparities mainly due to the availability of meteorological inputs or water management data. For most catchments, the LOT shows moderate to high confidence in the estimation of return periods with the hydrological model. Therefore, we consider the holistic modelling approach applicable for climate change impact studies concerned with dynamic alterations in peak flows.

Response of a CALM Buoy Moored Vessel in Squall Condition

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Paalvast ◽  
Jelte Kymmell ◽  
Ward Gorter ◽  
Alison Brown
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Benchmark Database ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Vessel Response ◽  
Design Loads ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Selection For ◽  
Reliable Design

This paper reviews the response of a hawser moored vessel to squalls and addresses a novel method for obtaining statistically reliable design loads. Industry paradigms related to squall selection for analysis input are reviewed and renewed. A benchmark database consisting of more than 15,000 unique squall-wave-current induced extreme values enables the validation of a range of less computationally demanding analysis and squall selection methods. Extreme values are extrapolated to a design value using a Peak Over Threshold (POT) method to fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The influence of associated metocean conditions and squall characteristics on the vessel response is presented. By means of bootstrapping a satisfactory population size for design purposes is studied. The findings challenge common design practices currently employed throughout the industry.

A dynamic modelling approach for simulating climate change impact on energy and hygrothermal performances of wood buildings

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 497-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoshu Lü ◽  
Tao Lu ◽  
Charles Kibert ◽  
Katja Vahtikari ◽  
Mark Hughes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Dynamic Modelling ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Modelling Approach

scholarly journals People’s Perception on Impact of Climate Change in Paschim Amawa and Tikuligadh Village Development Committee (VDC) Of Rupandehi District, Nepal

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khet Raj Dahal ◽  
Manju Manandhar ◽  
Chhatra Mani Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Development Committee ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Emissions

The issue of climate change is one of the global challenges and great concerns to humanity. Although Nepal has a negligible share in the global emissions of greenhouse gases, it is more vulnerable to climate change impact due to its fragile mountain ecosystems. A study was carried out to assess people’s understanding on climate change, identify its impacts on their communities and document how they are coping with those impacts. Descriptive and explorative research designs with purposive sampling method were used to collect data from the field. The study showed that more than 50% respondents were familiar with the concepts of climate change and remaining had no idea. Those who were familiar with climate change got knowledge about it from mass media. The result of this study showed that the climate change has several impacts on the study area such as decrease in agricultural production, loss in biodiversity, decrease in water resources and increase in health hazards. During field survey, people suggested that the Government of Nepal must have effective plan, policy and program for holistic approach and develop low cost technology for adaptation to climate change impact and improve livelihood.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v4i1.12185International Journal of Environment Volume-4, Issue-1, Dec-Feb 2014/15, page: 141-160  

scholarly journals Climate change in a Point-Over-Threshold model: an example on ocean-wave-storm hazard in NE Spain

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 113-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Tolosana-Delgado ◽  
M. I. Ortego ◽  
J. J. Egozcue ◽  
A. Sánchez-Arcilla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
Ne Spain

Abstract. A reparametrization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution is here proposed. It is suitable to parsimoniously check trend assumptions within a Point-Over-Threshold model of hazardous events. This is based on considerations about the scale of both the excesses of the event magnitudes and the distribution parameters. The usefulness of this approach is illustrated with a data set from two buoys, where hypotheses about the homogeneity of climate conditions and lack of trends are assessed.

scholarly journals Bayesian trend analysis for daily rainfall series of Barcelona

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 71-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. I. Ortego ◽  
J. Gibergans-Báguena ◽  
R. Tolosana-Delgado ◽  
J. J. Egozcue ◽  
M. C. Llasat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Physical Features ◽  
Threshold Approach

Abstract. A Point-Over-Threshold approach using a reparameterization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) has been used to assess changes in the daily rainfall Barcelona series (1854–2006). A Bayesian approach, considering the suitable scale and physical features of the phenomenon, has been used to look for these alterations. Two different models have been assessed: existence of abrupt changes in the new GPD parameters due to modifications of the observatory locations and trends in these GPD parameters, pointing to a climate change scenario.

Design Approach for CALM Buoy Moored Vessel in Squall Conditions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Brown ◽  
Ward Gorter ◽  
Mark Paalvast ◽  
Jelte Kymmell
Keyword(s):  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Extreme Loads ◽  
Tropical Environments ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

This paper focuses on examining the response of a vessel moored to a Catenary Anchor Leg Mooring (CALM) buoy in squall conditions. This type of mooring arrangement is typically a temporary mooring used for loading and offloading product or a temporary arrangement used during construction and typically selected for shallow water locations, often in tropical environments when conditions are otherwise relatively benign. Squalls are mesoscale convective systems that cause rapid increases in wind speed and are often associated with large changes in wind direction and also occur mostly in tropical environments. Hence for some locations squall events are the design drivers for this mooring arrangement and are particularly important due to the imperfect squall forecasts available to the industry. To understand the risks in a squall environment the vessel-CALM buoy system is modelled for a range of both squall conditions and associated environmental conditions, covering typical associated wave and current conditions by season and direction. A response-based approach is used to determine the design parameters for the extreme loads, extrapolated using a peak over threshold (POT) approach and using a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), for the vessel-CALM buoy system. The method for this approach is described in detail and contrasted with previous industry approaches.

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