scholarly journals Assessing Hydrological Vulnerability to Future Droughts in a Mediterranean Watershed: Combined Indices-Based and Distributed Modeling Approaches

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2333
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Abdelghani Chehbouni ◽  
Lahoucine Hanich ◽  
Karim Bergaoui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Distributed Modeling ◽  
Combined Indices ◽  
Annual Water

Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from −45.6% to −76.7% under RCP4.5, and from −66.7% to −95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed.

Modeling the response of non-perennial streams to climate change impact: The Bouregreg watershed in Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Maria De Girolamo ◽  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Aboubdillah ◽  
Ali El Bilali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Stream Network ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Modeling Approach

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

scholarly journals Development and Verification of the Available Number of Water Intake Days in Ungauged Local Water Source Using the SWAT Model and Flow Recession Curves

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1511
Author(s):  
Jung-Ryel Choi ◽  
Il-Moon Chung ◽  
Se-Jin Jeung ◽  
Kyung-Su Choo ◽  
Cheong-Hyeon Oh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Intake ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
High Water ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Regional Government

Climate change significantly affects water supply availability due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of runoff and severe drought events. In the case of Korea, despite high water supply ratio, more populations have continued to suffer from restricted regional water supplies. Though Korea enacted the Long-Term Comprehensive Water Resources Plan, a field survey revealed that the regional government organizations limitedly utilized their drought-related data. These limitations present a need for a system that provides a more intuitive drought review, enabling a more prompt response. Thus, this study presents a rating curve for the available number of water intake days per flow, and reviews and calibrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model mediators, and found that the coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) from 2007 to 2011 were at 0.92, 0.84, and 7.2%, respectively, which were “very good” levels. The flow recession curve was proposed after calculating the daily long-term flow and extracted the flow recession trends during days without precipitation. In addition, the SWAT model’s flow data enables the quantitative evaluations of the number of available water intake days without precipitation because of the high hit rate when comparing the available number of water intake days with the limited water supply period near the study watershed. Thus, this study can improve drought response and water resource management plans.

Integrated numerical model for irrigated area water resources management

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 980-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidi Huo ◽  
Xiaofan Wang ◽  
Yan Liang ◽  
Cheng Jiang ◽  
Xiaolu Zheng
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Irrigation District ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Long Term Effects

Abstract The likelihood of future global water shortages is increasing and further development of existing operational hydrologic models is needed to maintain sustainable development of the ecological environment and human health. In order to quantitatively describe the water balance factors and transformation relations, the objective of this article is to develop a distributed hydrologic model that is capable of simulating the surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) in irrigation areas. The model can be used as a tool for evaluating the long-term effects of water resource management. By coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models, a comprehensive hydrological model integrating SW and GW is constructed. The hydrologic response units for the SWAT model are exchanged with cells in the MODFLOW model. Taking the Heihe River Basin as the study area, 10 years of historical data are used to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis on model parameters. The developed model is run for a 40-year prediction period. The application of the developed coupling model shows that since the construction of the Heihe reservoir, the average GW level in the study area has declined by 6.05 m. The model can accurately simulate and predict the dynamic changes in SW and GW in the downstream irrigation area of Heihe River Basin and provide a scientific basis for water management in an irrigation district.

scholarly journals Future streamflow simulation in a snow-dominated Rocky Mountain headwater catchment

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1172-1190
Author(s):  
Ram P. Neupane ◽  
Jan F. Adamowski ◽  
Joseph D. White ◽  
Sandeep Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Seasonal Flow ◽  
The Future ◽  
Variable Precipitation ◽  
Headwater Catchment

Abstract The Rocky Mountains in North America are comprised of headwater snow catchments that provide sustained seasonal flow downstream. Changes in streamflow over the last half century in these basins may be associated with changing climate with increased temperature and variable precipitation, shifting seasonal hydrology. We investigated potential changes in future hydrology in a Rocky Mountain headwater catchment by simulating water budgets of the Athabasca River located in Jasper National Park, Canada. Potential hydrologic changes were predicted using a calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Future discharge and other parts of the catchment water budget were projected based on the global circulation model (GCM) derived from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the latter part of the century (2081–2099). A projected decrease in future precipitation resulted in reduced mean annual streamflow, by up to 86%, compared to the baseline period for the catchment. Projected summer streamflow decreased from 58 to 39%. Streamflow increased from 13 to 26% during the spring, dampening the dominance of summer peak-flow hydrology. Colder winters for the future scenarios increase the overall proportion of precipitation as winter snowfall. However, dramatically lower precipitation estimated for this basin will drive water limits for the future.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the Abay River Basin of Ethiopia: The Case of Didessa Sub Basin

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timketa Adula Duguma
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Sensitive Parameters ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

Abstract: In this study the semi-distributed model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), were applied to evaluate stream flow of Didessa sub basin, which is one of the major sub basins in Abay river basin of Ethiopia. The study evaluated the quality of observed meteorological and hydrological data, established SWAT hydrological model, identified the most sensitive parameters, evaluated the best distribution for flow and developed peak flow for major tributary in the sub basin. The result indicated that the SWAT model developed for the sub basin evaluated at multi hydro-gauging stations and its performance certain with the statistical measures, coefficient about determination (R2) and also Nash coefficient (NS) with values ranging 0.62 to 0.8 and 0.6 to 0.8 respectively at daily time scale. The values of R2 and NS increases at monthly time scale and found ranging 0.75 to 0.92 and 0.71 to 0.91 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify parameters those were most sensitive for the sub basin. CN2, GWQMN, CH_K, ALPHA_BNK and LAT_TIME are the most sensitive parameters in the sub basin. Finally, the peak flow for 2-10000 returns periods were determined after the best probability distribution is identified in EasyFit computer program.

scholarly journals Intercomparison of a Lumped Model and a Distributed Model for Streamflow Simulation in the Naoli River Watershed, Northeast China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guihua Liu ◽  
Zhiming He ◽  
Zhaoqing Luan ◽  
Shuhua Qi
Keyword(s):  
Northeast China ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
The Sanjiang Plain ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Streamflow Variability ◽  
Streamflow Simulation

Water supply availability has significant impacts on the biggest base for commodity grain production: The Sanjiang Plain in northeast China. The SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) model and IHACRES (identification of unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evapotranspiration and streamflow data) model were used for modelling streamflow variability in the upper Naoli River watershed to determine the applicability of hydrological models to the marsh rivers. Both the SWAT and IHACRES models were suitable for streamflow simulation, having R2 (coefficient of determination) and NS (Nash–Sutcliffe) values greater than 0.7, and PBIAS (percent bias) smaller than 25%. The IHACRES model was easy to use, with less data-preparation, and was found to be a better choice for runoff simulation in a watershed less affected by human activity. The simulation result was better in primeval times, i.e., 1956–1966, than the period 1967–2005, when its performance was found to be unfavorable. In contrast, the complex, processes-based SWAT model was found to be more appropriate for simultaneously simulating streamflow variability. In addition, the effects of land use change and human activities in the watershed—where agricultural activities are intensive—were evaluated. The study found that the SWAT model was potentially suitable for water resource planning and management.

scholarly journals Stream flow simulation and verification in ungauged zones by coupling hydrological and hydrodynamic models: a case study of the Poyang Lake ungauged zone

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 5847-5861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Zhang ◽  
Jianzhong Lu ◽  
Xiaoling Chen ◽  
Dong Liang ◽  
Xiaokang Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Annual Water

Abstract. To solve the problem of estimating and verifying stream flow without direct observation data, we estimated stream flow in ungauged zones by coupling a hydrological model with a hydrodynamic model, using the Poyang Lake basin as a test case. To simulate the stream flow of the ungauged zone, we built a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model for the entire catchment area covering the upstream gauged area and ungauged zone, and then calibrated the SWAT model using the data in the gauged area. To verify the results, we built two hydrodynamic scenarios (the original and adjusted scenarios) for Poyang Lake using the Delft3D model. In the original scenario, the upstream boundary condition is the observed stream flow from the upstream gauged area, while, in the adjusted scenario, it is the sum of the observed stream flow from the gauged area and the simulated stream flow from the ungauged zone. The experimental results showed that there is a stronger correlation and lower bias (R2 = 0.81, PBIAS  =  10.00 %) between the observed and simulated stream flow in the adjusted scenario compared to that (R2 = 0.77, PBIAS  =  20.10 %) in the original scenario, suggesting the simulated stream flow of the ungauged zone is reasonable. Using this method, we estimated the stream flow of the Poyang Lake ungauged zone as 16.4 ± 6.2 billion m3 a−1, representing ∼ 11.24 % of the annual total water yield of the entire watershed. Of the annual water yield, 70 % (11.48 billion m3 a−1) is concentrated in the wet season, while 30 % (4.92 billion m3 a−1) comes from the dry season. The ungauged stream flow significantly improves the water balance with the closing error decreased by 13.48 billion m3 a−1 (10.10 % of the total annual water resource) from 30.20 ± 9.1 billion m3 a−1 (20.10 % of the total annual water resource) to 16.72 ± 8.53 billion m3 a−1 (10.00 % of the total annual water resource). The method can be extended to other lake, river, or ocean basins where observation data is unavailable.

scholarly journals Analysis of hydrological processes with semi-distributed model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahmatullah Sediqi ◽  
Mustafa Tombul
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Model Sensitivity ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Calibration Program

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed physically-based hydrological model, is broadly used for simulating streamflow and analyzing hydrological processes in the basin. The SWAT model was applied to analyze the hydrological processes in Göksu Himmetli, Zamanti-Ergenuşağı, Göksun Poskoflu ve Hurman-Gözler Üstü sub-basins in the upper region of Seyhan and Ceyhan watersheds located in the south of Turkey. Model sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation were performed using SWAT-CUP automatic calibration program and SUFI-2 algorithm. According to the model sensitivity analysis results, the most sensitive parameters in these basins have been seen as CN2, ALPHA_BNK, CH_K2, and GW_DELAY. In this study, 11 years (1994-2004) meteorological and eight years (1997-2004) observed flow data were used, three years for the model warm-up period, five years (1997-2001) for calibration, and three years (2002-2004) for validation. The model statistical performance was evaluated using the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) as the objective function. As the result of the model calibration and validation, the NSE value in the considered four sub-basins varied between 0,70 - 0,90. The results obtained in the study showed a relatively high correlation between the observed and simulated discharge data.

scholarly journals Sub catchment Assessment of snowpack and snowmelt change by analyzing elevation bands and parameter sensitivity in the high Himalayas

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vishal Singh ◽  
Manish Kumar Goyal ◽  
Rao Y. Surampalli ◽  
Francisco Munoz-Arriola
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Hydrological Parameters ◽  
Streamflow Generation ◽  
Satluj River

Abstract. The present work proposes to improve estimates of how much streamflow is generated by snow in the watersheds of the steep Himalayas. Half of the earth’s glacial catchments in nonpolar areas are in the Himalayas, and they generate almost a third of the streamflows in India. In River catchments with glacier presence in the region, temporal variability in streamflow generation and the associated distribution of accumulated snow illustrate how changes in snowmelt and precipitation can affect water supplies to a growing population of 1.3 billion people. Estimations of snowpack and snowmelt in watersheds are critical for understanding streamflow generation and sources of catchments. However, estimating precipitation and snow accumulation is constrained by the difficulties complex terrain poses to data collection. The primary objective of this study is to assess the role of elevations in the computation of snowfall (snowpack) and snowmelt in sub-catchments. The study area is the Satluj River Catchment (up to Kasol gauge) with moderate (e.g., 526 m) to very high elevations (e.g., 7429 m) dominated by snow covers and glaciers. The Satluj River Catchment was divided into 14 sub-catchments. Snowpack and snowmelt variations in the sub-catchments in both historical and projected near-term (2011–2130) periods were analyzed using observed and Global Circulation Model (GCM) data sets. Both hydrological scenarios used elevation bands and parameter-sensitivity analyses built in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. For model calibration/validation and parameter sensitivity analysis, an advanced optimization method — namely, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) approach was used with multiple hydrological parameters. Among all parameters, the curve number (CN2) was found significantly sensitive for computations. The snowmelt hydrological parameters such as snowmelt factor maximum (SMFMX) and snow coverage (SNO50COV) significantly affected objective functions such as R2 and NSE during the model optimization process. The computed snowpack and snowmelt were found highly variable over the Himalayan sub-catchments as also reported by previous researchers in other regions. The magnitude of snowpack change consistently decreases across all the sub-catchments of the Satluj River Catchment (varying between 4 % and 42 %). The highest percentage of changes in snowpack was observed over high-elevation subcatchments.

scholarly journals Avaliação de Impactos de Mudanças no Uso e Manejo do Solo Sobre as Vazões da Bacia Hidrográfica do Ribeirão José Pereira, Utilizando o Modelo Swat.

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Filipe Otávio Passos ◽  
Benedito Cláudio Da Silva ◽  
Fernando Das Graças Braga da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

Diversos processos naturais podem causar mudanças nos fluxos hidrológicos dentro de bacias hidrográficas, sendo estas ainda mais afetadas devido a ações antrópicas que mudem as suas características físicas, principalmente, o tipo e o uso do solo. Neste contexto, este trabalho apresenta uma calibração de um modelo de transformação chuva x vazão e posterior simulação para a estimativa das vazões na bacia hidrográfica do ribeirão José Pereira, em Itajubá, sul de Minas Gerais, utilizando o modelo distribuído Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Swat). Foram gerados cinco cenários de uso e ocupação do solo, que foram idealizados a partir de características observadas na bacia ou de tendências futuras de ocupação, a saber, o cenário do estado atual, de manejo do solo, de recuperação das áreas de preservação permanente (APPs) de margens de rios, de substituição total por floresta e de crescimento urbano. Os resultados indicam que o modelo Swat pode ser utilizado na simulação das componentes hidrológicas de bacias hidrográficas de pequeno porte, e ainda que o manejo agrícola e o reflorestamento da bacia são mais eficientes na diminuição do escoamento superficial do que a recuperação das APPs, chegando a uma diminuição de aproximadamente 40% nas vazões máximas simuladas. Impact Assessment of Changes in Land Use and Management on the Losses of the Water Source of the José Pereira Stream, Using the SWAT Model A B S T R A C TSeveral natural processes can cause changes in hydrological flows within hydrographic basins, which are even more affected due to anthropic actions that change their physical characteristics, mainly, the type and use of the soil. In this context, this work carries out an analysis of the impact on the flows of a small-scale hydrographic basin (River José Pereira) due to changes in land use and occupation, using the distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Five land use and occupation scenarios were generated, which were designed based on characteristics observed in the basin or future occupation trends, namely, the current state scenario, soil management, recovery of permanent preservation areas (APPs) of river banks, total replacement by forest and urban growth. The results indicate that the SWAT model can be used in the simulation of the hydrological components of small hydrographic basins, and that agricultural management and reforestation of the basin are more efficient in reducing runoff than the recovery of APPs, reaching a decrease of approximately 40% in the maximum simulated flows.Keywords: hydrological modeling, rainfall, SWAT, land use and occupation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document