scholarly journals A Nonparametric Stochastic Approach for Disaggregation of Daily to Hourly Rainfall Using 3-Day Rainfall Patterns

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2306
Author(s):  
Heeseong Park ◽  
Gunhui Chung
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Urban Catchment ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Patterns

As infrastructure and populations are highly condensed in megacities, urban flood management has become a significant issue because of the potentially severe loss of lives and properties. In the megacities, rainfall from the catchment must be discharged throughout the stormwater pipe networks of which the travel time is less than one hour because of the high impervious rate. For a more accurate calculation of runoff from the urban catchment, hourly or even sub-hourly (minute) rainfall data must be applied. However, the available data often fail to meet the hydrologic system requirements. Many studies have been conducted to disaggregate time-series data while preserving distributional statistics from observed data. The K-nearest neighbor resampling (KNNR) method is a useful application of the nonparametric disaggregation technique. However, it is not easy to apply in the disaggregation of daily rainfall data into hourly while preserving statistical properties and boundary continuity. Therefore, in this study, three-day rainfall patterns were proposed to improve reproducible ability of statistics. Disaggregated rainfall was resampled only from a group having the same three-day rainfall patterns. To show the applicability of the proposed disaggregation method, probability distribution and L-moment statistics were compared. The proposed KNNR method with three-day rainfall patterns reproduced better the characteristics of rainfall event such as event duration, inter-event time, and toral amount of rainfall event. To calculate runoff from urban catchment, rainfall event is more important than hourly rainfall depth itself. Therefore, the proposed stochastic disaggregation method is useful to hydrologic analysis, particularly in rainfall disaggregation.

scholarly journals Can we get more out of rainfall thresholds? The temporal resolution tradeoff and the role of antecedent wetness and rainfall spatial variability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Leonarduzzi ◽  
Peter Molnar
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Antecedent Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Thresholds ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Landslide Triggering

<p>Rainfall event properties like maximum intensity, total rainfall depth, or their representation in the form of intensity-duration (ID) or total rainfall-duration (ED) curves, are commonly used to determine the triggering rainfall (event) conditions required for landslide initiation. This rainfall data-driven prediction of landsliding can be extended by the inclusion of antecedent wetness conditions. Although useful for first order assessment of landslide triggering conditions in warning systems, this approach relies heavily on data quality and temporal resolution, which may affect the overall predictive model performance as well as its reliability.</p><p>In this work, we address three key aspects of rainfall thresholds when applied at large spatial scales: (a) the tradeoffs between higher and lower temporal resolution (hourly or daily) (b) the spatial variability associated with long term rainfall, and (c) the added value of antecedent rainfall as predictor. We explore all of these by utilizing a long-term landslide inventory, containing more than 2500 records in Switzerland and 3 gridded rainfall records: a long daily rainfall dataset and two derived hourly products, disaggregated using stations or radar hourly measurements.</p><p>We observe that while predictive performances improve slightly when utilizing high quality hourly record (using radar information), the length of the record decreases, as well as the number of landslides in the inventory, which affects the reliability of the thresholds. A tradeoff has to be found between using long records of less accurate daily rainfall data and landslide timing, and shorter records with highly accurate hourly rainfall data and landslide timing. Even daily rainfall data may give reasonable predictive performance if thresholds are estimated with a long landslide inventory. Good quality hourly rainfall data significantly improve performance, but historical records tend to be shorter or less accurate (e.g. fewer stations available) and landslides with known timing are fewer. Considering antecedent rainfall, we observe that it is generally higher prior to landslide-triggering events and this can partially explain the false alarms and misses of an intensity-duration threshold. Nevertheless, in our study antecedent rainfall shows less predictive power by itself than the rainfall event characteristics. Finally, we show that we can improve the performances of the rainfall thresholds by accounting for local climatology in which we define new thresholds by normalizing the event characteristics with a chosen quantile of the local rainfall distribution or using the mean annual precipitation.</p>

scholarly journals Improved input to distributed hydrologic model in areas with sparse subdaily rainfall data using multivariate daily rainfall disaggregation

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 784-797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marija Ivković ◽  
Andrijana Todorović ◽  
Jasna Plavšić
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Flood Simulations

Abstract Flood forecasting relies on good quality of observed and forecasted rainfall. In Serbia, the recording rain gauge network is sparse and rainfall data mainly come from dense non-recording rain gauges. This is not beneficial for flood forecasting in smaller catchments and short-duration events, when hydrologic models operating on subdaily scale are applied. Moreover, differences in rainfall amounts from two types of gauges can be considerable, which is common in operational hydrological practice. This paper examines the possibility of including daily rainfall data from dense observation networks in flood forecasting based on subdaily data, using the extreme flood event in the Kolubara catchment in May 2014 as a case study. Daily rainfall from a dense observation network is disaggregated to hourly scale using the MuDRain multivariate disaggregation software. The disaggregation procedure results in well-reproduced rainfall dynamics and adjusts rainfall volume to the values from the non-recording gauges. The fully distributed wflow_hbv model, which is under development as a forecasting tool for the Kolubara catchment, is used for flood simulations with two alternative hourly rainfall data. The results show an improvement when the disaggregated rainfall from denser network is used, thus indicating the significance of better representation of rainfall temporal and spatial variability for flood forecasting.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Future Probable Precipitation based on the Assumption of Non-Stationarity in Seoul

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-29
Author(s):  
Minsu Jeong ◽  
Taesam Lee ◽  
JooHeon Lee ◽  
Hyeonseok Choi ◽  
Sunkwon Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Differential Evolution ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
The Future

In this study, an estimation of the future probable rainfall in Seoul, Korea, was performed, using non-stationary frequency analysis according to climate change and it was compared with the current probable rainfall. Hourly rainfall data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration with durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 24, and 48-h were used as input. For the future projection of precipitation, the RCP 8.5 scenario was selected with the same durations. Moreover, the future hourly rainfall was extracted from using the daily precipitation from 29 Global Climate Models (GCMs), based on the statistical temporal down-scaling method and their corresponding bias corrections. Subsequently, the annual maximum precipitation was extracted for each year. In this study, both stationary and non-stationary frequency analysis was applied based on the observed and predicted time series data sets. In particular, for the non-stationary frequency analysis, the Differential Evolution Markov Chain technique, which combines the Bayesian-based Differential Evolution and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, was adopted. Finally, the current and future intensity-duration-frequency curves were derived from the optimal probability distribution, and each probable rainfall was estimated. The results of the 29-scenario are presented with quantile estimations. The non-stationary frequency analysis results for Seoul revealed rainfalls of 94.4 mm/h for 30 y, 101.7 mm/h for 50 y, and 111.5 mm/h for 100 y return periods. The average value of the 29-GCM model ensemble was estimated to be approximately 5 mm/h higher than that obtained from the stationary frequency analysis. Considering the changes in hydrological characteristics due to climate change in Seoul, the results of this study could be utilized to pro-actively respond to natural disasters due to such phenomena.

scholarly journals Analysis of Genesis Rain in Spring Transition in Makassar

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Candra Febryanto Patandean
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Transition Season ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
The City

Extreme weather in this case heavy rains is common in the city of Makassar, both of which resulted in a flood or no flood.  This type of research is descriptive research that aims to describe the incidence of rain in the transition season in Makassar. The source of data used in obtaining data on research in Makassar is secondary data. His research methods such as analysis method is based on monthly rainfall data to determine the monthly rainfall pattern using the Log Pearson III distribution methods and daily rainfall data duration of 3 hours early to analyze the frequency of rain by using Gumbel distribution methods. Based on the results in a graph of monthly rainfall patterns in the city of Makassar in the year (1985-2014) for 30 years and chart the frequency of daily rainfall duration 3 hours late in the year (2005 to 2014) for 10 years in the transition season in the city of Makassar, we can conclude that monthly rainfall patterns in Makassar is a monsoonal pattern with the second-largest peak intensity of rainfall occurs in January and December and the smallest intensity of rainfall occurs in August.

scholarly journals Trend and spatial variability of 1-day extreme rainfall from 1980 - 2015: study at the adminisitrative area of UPT PSDA Pasuruan

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Indarto Indarto
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Statistical Test ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Main Input ◽  
Crossing Test

This study aims to analyze trends,  shift and spatial variability of extreme-rainfall in the area of UPT PSDA Pasuruan. The daily rainfall data from 64 stations from 1980 until 2015 were used as main input. The 1-day extreem rainfall data is determined as the maximum annual of 24-hour rainfall events.  The statistical  analysis using Mann-Kendall, Rank-Sum, and Median Crossing Test using significance level α = 0,05. The spatial variability of extrem rainfall data is described using average annual 24-hour rainfall during the periods of record. Each station is represented by one value. The values are then interpolated using IDW interpolation methods to maps the spatial variability of extreem rainfall event.  The results show the value of statistical test for each stations that show the existing  trend, shift, or randomness of data. The result also produce thematic maps show the spatial variability of extreme rainfall and the value of each trend.

scholarly journals Observation of Short Duration Rainfall in Yogyakarta

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 2741-2745
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Short Duration ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Rainfall Distribution ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Mitigation Effort

On the observation of hourly rainfall data in Java Island, for the modelling watershed purpose, it can be seen that short duration rainfall events are the most dominant. The percentage of short duration rainfall event is almost 70% of the observation data. By using the high resolution of hourly rainfall data with 5 minutes’ intervals, it can be easily to describe the rainfall distribution patterns that occur. This research observed high resolution of hourly rainfall data in hilly and mountainous at Mount Merapi area in Yogyakarta. It purposed to mitigation effort due to the rainfall events that often falls with short duration and high intensity.

scholarly journals Rainfall erosivity mapping over mainland China based on high density hourly rainfall records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianyu Yue ◽  
Shuiqing Yin ◽  
Yun Xie ◽  
Bofu Yu ◽  
Baoyuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
R Factor ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Factor Map

Abstract. Rainfall erosivity represents the effect of rainfall and runoff on the average rate of soil erosion. Maps of rainfall erosivity are indispensable for soil erosion assessment using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its successors. To improve current erosivity maps based on daily rainfall data for mainland China, hourly rainfall data from 2381 stations for the period 1951–2018 were collected to generate the R factor and the 1-in-10-year EI30 maps (available at https://dx.doi.org/10.12275/bnu.clicia.rainfallerosivity.CN.001; Yue et al., 2020). Rainfall data at 1-min intervals from 62 stations (18 stations) were collected to calculate rainfall erosivities as true values to evaluate the improvement of the new R factor map (1-in-10-year EI30 map) from the current maps. Both the R factor and 1-in-10-year EI30 decreased from the southeastern to the northwestern, ranging from 0 to 25300 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 a−1 for the R factor and 0 to 11246 MJ mm ha−1 h−1 for the 1-in-10-year EI30. New maps indicated current maps existed an underestimation for most of the southeastern areas and an overestimation for most of the middle and western areas. Comparing with the current maps, the R factor map generated in this study improved the accuracy from 19.4 % to 15.9 % in the mid-western and eastern regions, from 45.2 % to 21.6 % in the western region, and the 1-in-10-year EI30 map in the mid-western and eastern regions improved the accuracy from 21.7 % to 13.0 %. The improvement of the new R factor map can be mainly contributed to the increase of data resolution from daily data to hourly data, whereas that of new 1-in-10-year EI30 map to the increase of the number of stations from 744 to 2381. The effect of increasing the number of stations to improve the interpolation seems to be not very obvious when the station density was denser than about 10 · 103 km2 1 station.

scholarly journals Study on The Physical Characteristics and Hydrology of 15 Watershed in East Java

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 159
Author(s):  
Indarto Indarto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Simple Arithmetic ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Physical Data ◽  
Areal Rainfall

The study demonstrated the application of statistical method to describe physical and hydro-meteorological characteristics by means of time series analysis.  Fifteen(15) watersheds in East Java were selected for this study. Data input for the analysis include: physical data, rainfall and discharge. Physical data of the watershed (topography, river network, land use, and soil type) are extracted from existing database and treated using GIS Software. Daily rainfall data were collected from existing pluviometers around the region. Daily discharge data were obtained from measurement station located at the outlet of each watershed. Areal Rainfall for each watershed was determined using average value of existing pluviometers around the watershed and determined using simple arithmetic method. These time series data are then imported to RAP (River Analysis Package).  Analysis on the RAP, include: general statistical, flow duration curve (FDC), and baseflow analysis. The result then presented in graphic and tables. Research shows that among the watersheds have different physical and hydrological characteristics.

Recognition of workers’ actions from time-series signal images using deep convolutional neural network

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omobolanle Ruth Ogunseiju ◽  
Johnson Olayiwola ◽  
Abiola Abosede Akanmu ◽  
Chukwuma Nnaji
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Action Recognition ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Construction Workers ◽  
Series Data ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Content Type

PurposeConstruction action recognition is essential to efficiently manage productivity, health and safety risks. These can be achieved by tracking and monitoring construction work. This study aims to examine the performance of a variant of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for recognizing actions of construction workers from images of signals of time-series data.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopts Inception v1 to classify actions involved in carpentry and painting activities from images of motion data. Augmented time-series data from wearable sensors attached to worker's lower arms are converted to signal images to train an Inception v1 network. Performance of Inception v1 is compared with the highest performing supervised learning classifier, k-nearest neighbor (KNN).FindingsResults show that the performance of Inception v1 network improved when trained with signal images of the augmented data but at a high computational cost. Inception v1 network and KNN achieved an accuracy of 95.2% and 99.8%, respectively when trained with 50-fold augmented carpentry dataset. The accuracy of Inception v1 and KNN with 10-fold painting augmented dataset is 95.3% and 97.1%, respectively.Research limitations/implicationsOnly acceleration data of the lower arm of the two trades were used for action recognition. Each signal image comprises 20 datasets.Originality/valueLittle has been reported on recognizing construction workers' actions from signal images. This study adds value to the existing literature, in particular by providing insights into the extent to which a deep CNN can classify subtasks from patterns in signal images compared to a traditional best performing shallow network.

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