scholarly journals Long-Term Hydro–Climatic Trends in the Mountainous Kofarnihon River Basin in Central Asia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2140
Author(s):  
Aminjon Gulakhmadov ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Nekruz Gulahmadov ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Rashid Davlyatov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

Hydro–climatic variables play an essential role in assessing the long-term changes in streamflow in the snow-fed and glacier-fed rivers that are extremely vulnerable to climatic variations in the alpine mountainous regions. The trend and magnitudinal changes of hydro–climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall, and Sen’s slope tests in the Kofarnihon River Basin in Central Asia. We also used Pettitt’s test to analyze the changes during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 time periods. This study revealed that the variations of climate variables have their significant spatial patterns and are strongly regulated by the altitude. From mountainous regions down to plain regions, the decadal temperature trends varied from −0.18 to 0.36 °C/decade and the variation of precipitation from −4.76 to −14.63 mm yr−1 per decade. Considering the temporal variation, the temperature trends decreased in winter and significantly increased in spring, and the precipitation trends significantly decreased in spring but significantly increased in winter in the high-altitude areas. As consequence, total streamflow in headwater regions shows the obvious increase and clear seasonal variations. The mean monthly streamflow decreased in fall and winter and significantly increased in the spring and summer seasons which can be attributed to the influence of global warming on the rapid melting of snow and ice. Although the abrupt change points in air temperature and precipitation occurred around the 1970s and 1990s in the low-altitude areas and 2000s in the high-altitude areas during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 periods, the general trends of hydro–climatic variables keep consistent. This study benefits water resource management, socio–economic development, and sustainable agricultural planning in Tajikistan and its downstream countries.

scholarly journals The Radial Growth of Schrenk Spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) Records the Hydroclimatic Changes in the Chu River Basin over the Past 175 Years

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
Bakytbek Ermenbaev ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Mamtimin Ali ◽  
Li Qin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Picea Schrenkiana ◽  
Arid Central Asia ◽  
Western Tianshan

The Chu River is one of the most important rivers in arid Central Asia. Its discharge is affected by climate change. Here, we establish a tree-ring chronology for the upper Chu River Basin and analyze the relationships between radial growth, climate, and discharge. The results show that the radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) is controlled by moisture. We also reconstruct a 175-year standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Chu River Basin. A comparison of the reconstructed and observed indices reveal that 39.5% of the variance occurred during the calibration period of 1952–2014. The SPEI reconstruction and discharge variability of the Chu River show consistent long-term change. They also show that the Chu River Basin became increasingly dry between the 1840s and the 1960s, with a significant drought during the 1970s. A long and rapid wetting period occurred between the 1970s and the 2000s, and was followed by increasing drought since 2004. The change in the SPEI in the Chu River Basin is consistent with records of long-term precipitation, SPEI and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) in other proximate regions of the western Tianshan Mountains. The hydroclimatic change of the Chu River Basin may be associated with westerly wind. This study is helpful for disaster prevention and water resource management in arid central Asia.

scholarly journals Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 3084 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shan Zou ◽  
Abuduwaili Jilili ◽  
Weili Duan ◽  
Philippe Maeyer ◽  
Tim de Voorde
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Effective Water ◽  
Syr Darya

Water resources are increasingly under stress in Central Asia because downstream countries are highly dependent on upstream countries. Water is essential for irrigation and is becoming scarcer due to climate change and human activities. Based on 20 hydrological stations, this study firstly analyzed the annual and seasonal spatial–temporal changes of the river discharges, precipitation, and temperature in the Syr Darya River Basin and then the possible relationships between these factors were detected. Finally, the potential reasons for the river discharge variations have been discussed. The results show that the river discharges in the upper stream of the basin had significantly risen from 1930 to 2006, mainly due to the increase in temperature (approximately 0.3 °C per decade), which accelerated the melting of glaciers, while it decreased in the middle and lower regions due to the rising irrigation. In the middle of the basin, the expansion of the construction land (128.83 km2/year) and agricultural land (66.68 km2/year) from 1992 to 2015 has significantly augmented the water consumption. The operations of reservoirs and irrigation canals significantly intercepted the river discharge from the upper streams, causing a sharp decline in the river discharges in the middle and lower reaches of the Syr Darya River in 1973. The outcomes obtained from this study allowed us to understand the changes in the river discharges and provided essential information for effective water resource management in the Syr Darya River Basin.

Effects of Interactions Between Society and Environment on Policy in Water Resources Management: Exploring Scenarios of Natural and Human-Induced Shocks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iolanda Borzì ◽  
Murugesu Sivapalan ◽  
Brunella Bonaccorso ◽  
Alberto Viglione
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Dynamics ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management

<p>In many regions of the world, water supply is threatened by natural hazards such as floods and droughts, as well as by shocks induced by anthropogenic changes to water use. Lack of anticipation and/or preparation for these events can lead to delayed or insufficient responses to sudden or developing water crises, that sometimes can produce irrecoverable damage to the environment. In this work, a socio-hydrological approach to sustainable water resources management of the Alcantara River Basin in Sicily (Italy) is adopted that explicitly takes into account feedbacks between the natural and the human components that might arise from shocks to the water management system, including possible evolution of policy responses. The Alcantara River Basin is a groundwater-fed catchment which supplies many villages on the Ionian coast up to Messina city, mainly through the Alcantara aqueduct, but also agricultural areas and industries, including hydropower plants. It also hosts the Alcantara Fluvial Park, an important natural reserve. The Alcantara aqueduct also supplied the city of Messina during a temporary failure of its main aqueduct caused by a landslide in October 2015. The main purpose of the work is to use the socio-hydrological model as a “screening tool” to frame water resource management issues in a broad way and provide guidance to the community to identify aspects of societal behavior that need to evolve towards sustainable water resource management in order to withstand future shocks. This has been done by scenario simulations in conditions of a natural shock affecting the system (i.e. drought) and of a human-induced one (i.e. increase in groundwater extraction). Sensitivity analysis of the model social parameters revealed how the value attributed by the society to the environment and water resources use, its capacity to remember previous water crises and, in particular, its previous responses to shocks, can affect the system in a way that can produce paradoxical effects. Results show how a rapid decision-making strategy that may work in the short term, can be counter-productive when viewed over the long term and how a do-nothing decision during a water crisis could be highly damaging to the environment. For the above-mentioned reasons, this socio-hydrological approach can be considered as a useful tool to understand human-water dynamics and to support decision-makers in water resource management policies with a broad and long-term perspective.</p>

Monthly streamflow reconstruction for the Chao Phraya River Basin with tree rings and δ180

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hung Nguyen ◽  
Stefano Galelli ◽  
Chenxi Xu ◽  
Brendan Buckley
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Reconstruction Method ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Chao Phraya River

<p>The Chao Phraya River Basin covers a third of Thailand’s area and is also home to a third of the country’s population. The Chao Phraya River serves multiple purposes: water supply, irrigation, hydropower production, cooling for thermoelectric power plants, among others. Water management in the basin could benefit from long term streamflow records that extend beyond the instrumental period. But to acquire practical relevance, streamflow reconstructions should have a sub-annual resolution—in line with the time step characterizing water management decisions. To this end, we reconstruct 253 years of monthly streamflow at all four major tributaries (Ping, Nan, Yon, and Wang) of the Chao Phraya. The reconstructions are developed using a network of tree rings and δ<sup>18</sup>0 chronologies in Southeast Asia. Importantly, our reconstruction method ensures that the total monthly flow matches the annual flow closely. This mass balance criterion is necessary to avoid misguiding water management decisions, such as the allocation of water rights. All reconstructions are skillful. Better skills are obtained in the pre-monsoon months (March to May) than in the peak monsoon season (September, October). Overall, this work presents the most comprehensive record of high resolution and long term streamflow variability in the basin.</p>

Trend of stream temperature and its drivers over the past 55 years in a large European River basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanieh Seyedhashemi ◽  
Florentina Moatar ◽  
Jean-Philippe Vidal ◽  
Dominique Thiery ◽  
Céline Monteil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Stream Temperature ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
The South ◽  
Massif Central ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature Trends

<p>Air temperature has been increasing all around the world over the past decades. Owing to its sensitivity to air temperature, it is consequently expected that stream temperature experiences an increase as well. However, due to paucity of long-term stream temperature data, assessments of the magnitude of such trends in relation with landscape and hydrological changes have remained scarce.</p><p>The present study used a physically-based thermal model (T-NET: Temperature-NETwork), coupled with a semi-distributed hydrological model (EROS) to reconstruct past daily stream temperatures and discharges at the scale of the Loire River basin in France (10<sup>5</sup> km<sup>2</sup> with 52278 reaches). The ability of both models to reconstruct long-term trends was assessed at 44 gauging stations and 11 stream temperature stations.  </p><p>T-NET simulations over the 1963-2017 period show that there has been a significant increasing trend in stream temperatures for at least 70% of reaches in all seasons (median=0.36 °C/decade). Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in spring (Mar-May) and summer (Jun-Aug) with a median increase of 0.37 °C (0.11 to 0.8°C) and 0.42°C (0.14 to 1 °C) per decade, respectively. For 81 % of reaches, annual stream temperature trends are greater than annual air temperature trends (median ratio=1.21; interquartile ranges: 1.06-1.44). Greater increases in stream temperature in spring and summer are found in the south of the basin, mostly in the Massif Central (up to 1°C/decade) where greater increase in air temperature (up to 0.67 °C/decade) and greater decrease in discharge (up to -16%/decade) occur jointly. The increase of stream temperature is also higher in large rivers compared to small rivers where riparian vegetation shading mitigate the increase in temperature. For the majority of reaches, changes in stream temperature, air temperature, and discharge significantly intensified in the late 1980s.</p><p>These climate-induced changes in the annual and seasonal stream temperature could help us to explain shifts in the phenology and geographical distribution of cold-water fish especially in the south of the basin where trends are more pronounced.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of the CRU TS3.1, APHRODITE_V1101, and CFSR Datasets in Assessing Water Balance Components in the Upper Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1334
Author(s):  
Aminjon Gulakhmadov ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Manuchekhr Gulakhmadov ◽  
Zainalobudin Kobuliev ◽  
Nekruz Gulahmadov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

In this study, the applicability of three gridded datasets was evaluated (Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time Series (TS) 3.1, “Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward the Evaluation of Water Resources” (APHRODITE)_V1101, and the climate forecast system reanalysis dataset (CFSR)) in different combinations against observational data for predicting the hydrology of the Upper Vakhsh River Basin (UVRB) in Central Asia. Water balance components were computed, the results calibrated with the SUFI-2 approach using the calibration of soil and water assessment tool models (SWAT–CUP) program, and the performance of the model was evaluated. Streamflow simulation using the SWAT model in the UVRB was more sensitive to five parameters (ALPHA_BF, SOL_BD, CN2, CH_K2, and RCHRG_DP). The simulation for calibration, validation, and overall scales showed an acceptable correlation between the observed and simulated monthly streamflow for all combination datasets. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) showed “excellent” and “good” values for all datasets. Based on the R2 and NSE from the “excellent” down to “good” datasets, the values were 0.91 and 0.92 using the observational datasets, CRU TS3.1 (0.90 and 0.90), APHRODITE_V1101+CRU TS3.1 (0.74 and 0.76), APHRODITE_V1101+CFSR (0.72 and 0.78), and CFSR (0.67 and 0.74) for the overall scale (1982–2006). The mean annual evapotranspiration values from the UVRB were about 9.93% (APHRODITE_V1101+CFSR), 25.52% (APHRODITE_V1101+CRU TS3.1), 2.9% (CFSR), 21.08% (CRU TS3.1), and 27.28% (observational datasets) of annual precipitation (186.3 mm, 315.7 mm, 72.1 mm, 256.4 mm, and 299.7 mm, out of 1875.9 mm, 1236.9 mm, 2479 mm, 1215.9 mm, and 1098.5 mm). The contributions of the snowmelt to annual runoff were about 81.06% (APHRODITE_V1101+CFSR), 63.12% (APHRODITE_V1101+CRU TS3.1), 82.79% (CFSR), 81.66% (CRU TS3.1), and 67.67% (observational datasets), and the contributions of rain to the annual flow were about 18.94%, 36.88%, 17.21%, 18.34%, and 32.33%, respectively, for the overall scale. We found that gridded climate datasets can be used as an alternative source for hydrological modeling in the Upper Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia, especially in scarce-observation regions. Water balance components, simulated by the SWAT model, provided a baseline understanding of the hydrological processes through which water management issues can be dealt with in the basin.

scholarly journals Temperature and Precipitation Development at Svalbard 1900–2100

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eirik J. Førland ◽  
Rasmus Benestad ◽  
Inger Hanssen-Bauer ◽  
Jan Erik Haugen ◽  
Torill Engen Skaugen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Observational Series ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Warming Rate ◽  
Average Winter Temperature

Substantial variations in temperature and precipitation have been observed since the first permanent weather station was established in the Svalbard region in 1911. Temperature and precipitation development are analysed for the longest observational series, and periods with positive and negative trends are identified. For all temperature series, positive linear trends are found for annual values as well as spring, summer, and autumn series. A very strong winter warming is identified for the latest decades. Evaluation of temperature trends downscaled from global climate models forced with observed greenhouse gas emissions suggests that the downscaled results do span the observation-based trends at Svalbard Airport 1912–2010. Novel projections focussing on the Svalbard region indicate a future warming rate up to year 2100 three times stronger than observed during the latest 100 years. The average winter temperature in the Longyearbyen area at the end of this century is projected to be around 10°C higher than in present climate. Also for precipitation, the long-term observational series indicate an increase and the projections indicate a further increase up to year 2100.

scholarly journals Changes in Glacial Meltwater Runoff and Its Response to Climate Change in the Tianshan Region Detected Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Satellite Remote Sensing

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1753
Author(s):  
Adilai Wufu ◽  
Yun Chen ◽  
Shengtian Yang ◽  
Hezhen Lou ◽  
Pengfei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Glacial Meltwater ◽  
Aerial Vehicles

The Tianshan Mountains, known as the “water tower” of Central Asia, are the major source of water for the most part of Xinjiang and oasis region of Central Asia. However, climate warming has amplified the discharges of glacial meltwater in the Tianshan Mountains. In this study, we calculated river discharge by integrating cross-sections mapped using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and water velocity data collected in the field. Multiple remote sensing images, such as Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery, were applied to estimate the long-term discharge of 19 river sections in ungauged regions of the Tianshan Mountains. River discharge variations under climate change were also examined. Using our in-situ measured discharges as reference, the UAV derived discharge results have an NSE (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency) of 0.98, an RMSE (root mean square error) of 8.49 m3/s, and an average qualification rate of 80%. The monthly discharge of glacial meltwater-dominated river sections showed an average decrease of 2.46% during 1989–2019. The shrinking and even disappearance of mountain glaciers (approximately −4.98 km2/year) was the main reasons for the decrease trend. However, the precipitation-dominated river sections showed an average increase of 2.27% for the same period. The increase in precipitation (approximately 1.93 mm/year) was the key cause for the increase tendency. This study highlights remote sensing hydrological station technology and its application in the long-term prediction of river discharge, which is critical for decision-making regarding integrated water resource management in alpine regions.

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