scholarly journals Urban Water Demand Prediction for a City That Suffers from Climate Change and Population Growth: Gauteng Province Case Study

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salah L. Zubaidi ◽  
Sandra Ortega-Martorell ◽  
Hussein Al-Bugharbee ◽  
Ivan Olier ◽  
Khalid S. Hashim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Water System ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Gauteng Province ◽  
The Impact

The proper management of a municipal water system is essential to sustain cities and support the water security of societies. Urban water estimating has always been a challenging task for managers of water utilities and policymakers. This paper applies a novel methodology that includes data pre-processing and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) optimized with the Backtracking Search Algorithm (BSA-ANN) to estimate monthly water demand in relation to previous water consumption. Historical data of monthly water consumption in the Gauteng Province, South Africa, for the period 2007–2016, were selected for the creation and evaluation of the methodology. Data pre-processing techniques played a crucial role in the enhancing of the quality of the data before creating the prediction model. The BSA-ANN model yielded the best result with a root mean square error and a coefficient of efficiency of 0.0099 mega liters and 0.979, respectively. Moreover, it proved more efficient and reliable than the Crow Search Algorithm (CSA-ANN), based on the scale of error. Overall, this paper presents a new application for the hybrid model BSA-ANN that can be successfully used to predict water demand with high accuracy, in a city that heavily suffers from the impact of climate change and population growth.

scholarly journals The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hall ◽  
T. P. Dawson ◽  
J. I. Macdiarmid ◽  
R.B. Matthews ◽  
P. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
The Impact

Urban water demand assessment for sustainable water resources management, under climate change and socioeconomic changes

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 679-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelos Alamanos ◽  
Stamatis Sfyris ◽  
Chrysostomos Fafoutis ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract The relationship between water abstraction and water availability has turned into a major stress factor in the urban exploitation of water resources. The situation is expected to be sharpened in the future due to the intensity of extreme meteorological phenomena, and socio-economic changes affecting water demand. In the city of Volos, Greece, the number of water counters has been tripled during the last four decades. This study attempts to simulate the city's network, supply system and water demand through a forecasting model. The forecast was examined under several situations, based on climate change and socio-economic observations of the city, using meteorological, water pricing, users' income, level of education, family members, floor and residence size variables. The most interesting outputs are: (a) the impact of each variable in the water consumption and (b) water balance under four management scenarios, indicating the future water management conditions of the broader area, including demand and supply management. The results proved that rational water management can lead to remarkable water conservation. The simulation of real scenarios and future situations in the city's water demand and balance, is the innovative element of the study, making it capable of supporting the local water utility.

scholarly journals System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Behaviour of the Lim Reservoir System (Serbia) under Changing Climate Conditions

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milan Stojkovic ◽  
Slobodan P. Simonovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Water System ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Investigating the impact of climate change on the management of a complex multipurpose water system is a critical issue. The presented study focuses on different steps of the climate change impact analysis process: (i) Use of three regional climate models (RCMs), (ii) use of four bias correction methods (BCMs), (iii) use of three concentration scenarios (CSs), (iv) use of two model averaging procedures, (v) use of the hydrological model and (vi) use of the system dynamics simulation model (SDSM). The analyses are performed for a future period, from 2006 to 2055 and the reference period, from 1971 to 2000. As a case study area, the Lim water system in Serbia (southeast Europe) is used. The Lim river system consists of four hydraulically connected reservoirs (Uvac, Kokin Brod, Radojnja, Potpec) with a primary purpose of hydropower generation. The results of the climate change impact analyses indicate change in the future hydropower generation at the annual level from −3.5% to +17.9%. The change has a seasonal variation with an increase for the winter season up to +20.3% and decrease for the summer season up to −33.6%. Furthermore, the study analyzes the uncertainty in the SDSM outputs introduced by different steps of the modelling process. The most dominant source of uncertainty in power production is the choice of BCMs (54%), followed by the selection of RCMs (41%). The least significant source of uncertainty is the choice of CSs (6%). The uncertainty in the inflows and outflows is equally dominated by the choice of BCM (49%) and RCM (45%).

scholarly journals Forecasting Urban Water Demand Using Cellular Automata

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2038
Author(s):  
Laís Marques de Oliveira ◽  
Samíria Maria Oliveira da Silva ◽  
Francisco de Assis de Souza Filho ◽  
Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho ◽  
Renata Locarno Frota
Keyword(s):  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Urban Water Demand

Associating the dynamic spatial modeling based on the theory of cellular automata with remote sensing and geoprocessing technologies, this article analyzes what would be the per capita consumption behavior of Fortaleza-CE, located in the Northeast of Brazil, in 2017, had there not been a period of water scarcity between 2013 and 2017, and estimates the future urban water demand for the years 2021 and 2025. The weight of evidence method was applied to produce a transition probability map, that shows which areas will be more subject to consumption class change. For that, micro-measured water consumption data from 2009 and 2013 were used. The model was validated by the evaluation of diffuse similarity indices. A high level of similarity was found between the simulated and observed data (0.99). Future scenarios indicated an increase in water demand of 6.45% and 10.16% for 2021 and 2025, respectively, compared to 2017. The simulated annual growth rate was 1.27%. The expected results of urban water consumption for the years 2021 and 2025 are essential for local water resources management professionals and scientists, because, based on our results, these professionals will be able to outline future water resource management strategies.

Climate change and its impact on domestic water consumption in Sub-urban regions in the Gaza Strip

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdy Jarboo ◽  
Husam Al-Najar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
Domestic Water Consumption ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to identify the priorities on water sector planning. The priorities are identified by comparing the climate change impact on water consumption and the impact of using domestic water illegally to irrigate the urban agricultural holdings in suburban areas. Design/methodology/approach – Metered water consumption in summer and winter in both urban and suburban areas was studied in Rafah city. A backward chronological linear model of climate change (precipitation and temperature) influence on water consumption was developed using software STATISTICA 10. The developed statistical relation was used to predict the impact of various climate change scenarios for domestic water consumption. Hence, four climate change scenarios were hypothesized – an increase in temperature by 1 and 20°C and a reduction in the rainfall by 10 and 20 per cent, respectively. Findings – The most influential climate change scenario was the increase of temperature by 20°C, which caused an increase of 1.4 per cent on the average domestic water consumption compared to the current value. The hypothesized reduction of 20 per cent in precipitation caused a negligible increase in water consumption by 0.1 per cent from the current value. Urban agriculture and current practice of using municipal water to irrigate cultivated urban holdings have a significant negative influence on domestic water consumption. The aforementioned practice led to a high percentage of unaccounted for water (UFW) of 33, 38 and 45 per cent for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. Practical implications – The concerned decision-makers should consider the right track in prioritizing dilemmas for planning water sector in suburban areas. Originality/value – This research could be considered the first of its kind because impacts of urban agriculture and climate change on domestic water consumption have never been previously considered in the Gaza Strip.

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