scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster on the Huaibei Plain of China Based on the Improved Connection Number and Entropy Information Diffusion Method

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1089
Author(s):  
Menglu Chen ◽  
Shaowei Ning ◽  
Juliang Jin ◽  
Yi Cui ◽  
Chengguo Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Connection Number ◽  
Entropy Information ◽  
Drought Disaster

In recent years, drought disaster has occurred frequently in China, causing significant agricultural losses. It is increasingly important to assess the risk of agricultural drought disaster (ADD) and to develop a targeted risk management approach. In this study, an ADD risk assessment model was established. First, an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process based on an accelerated genetic algorithm (AGA-FAHP) was used to build an evaluation indicator system. Then, based on the indicators, the ADD assessment connection numbers were established using the improved connection number method. Finally, the entropy information diffusion method was used to form an ADD risk assessment model. The model was applied to the Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province (China), with the assessment showing that, in the period from 2008 to 2017, the plain was threatened continuously by ADD, especially during 2011–2013. The risk assessment showed that southern cities of the study area were nearly twice as likely to be struck by ADD as northern cities. Meanwhile, the eastern region had a higher frequency of severe and above-grade ADD events (once every 21 years) than the western region (once every 25.3 years). Therefore, Huainan was identified as a high-risk city and Huaibei as a low-risk city, with Suzhou and Bengbu more vulnerable to ADD than Fuyang and Bozhou. Understanding the spatial dynamics of risk in the study area can improve agricultural system resilience by optimizing planting structures and by enhancing irrigation water efficiency. This model could be used to provide support for increasing agricultural drought disaster resilience and risk management efficiency.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Drought Based on IEAPP-IDM in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghua Deng ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Guiyun Liu ◽  
Huimin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Projection Pursuit ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Drought Disaster

A new model for risk assessment of drought based on projection pursuit optimized by immune evolutionary algorithm and information diffusion method (IEAPP-IDM) was proposed. Due to the fact that drought risk assessment is a complex multicriteria and multilevel problem, the IEAPP-IDM model can project the multidimensional indicators of samples into one-dimension projection scores; then, the information carried by the projection scores was diffused into drought risk levels; finally, the drought disaster risk estimate was obtained. In the present study, Qujing was employed to assess the drought risk with the proposed model. The results showed that Xuanwei possessed higher risk, while Luliang and Zhanyi possessed lower risk. At the same time, the probability risk of drought in Malong and Luoping was increasing, while the probability risk of drought in in Qilin and Shizong was decreasing. The results obtained by the assessment model are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing and verify the model’s effectiveness. The study can provide scientific reference in drought risk management for Qujing and other places of China.

Risk Management at TransCanada Pipelines

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Cicansky ◽  
Glenn Yuen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
High Pressure ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Gas Pipelines ◽  
Natural Gas Pipelines

This Paper presents the method TransCanada PipeLines uses to assess the integrity risks with respect to operating its high pressure natural gas pipelines. TransCanada PipeLines’ experiences, results and successes gained through the implementation of its risk program, TRPRAM (TransCanada Pipelines Risk Assessment Model) are highlighted.

scholarly journals Dynamic Risk Assessment of Compound Hazards Based on VFS-IEM-IDM: A Case Study of Typhoon-Rainstorm Hazards in Shenzhen, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenwu Gong ◽  
Jie Jiang ◽  
Lili Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Conditional Probability Distribution ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

Abstract. Typhoons and rainstorms are types of natural hazards that can cause significant impacts. These individual hazards may also occur simultaneously to produce compound hazards, leading to increased losses. The accurate risk assessment of such compound hazards faces several challenges due to the uncertainties in multiple hazards level evaluation, and the incomplete information in historical data sets. In this paper, to deal with these challenges, we propose a risk assessment model called VFS-IEM-IDM based on the Variable Fuzzy Set and Information Diffusion Method. In particular, VFS-IEM-IDM provides a comprehensive evaluation of the compound hazards level, and a predictive cumulative logistic model is used to verify the results. Furthermore, VFS-IEM-IDM applies a normal information diffusion estimator to estimate the conditional probability distribution and the vulnerability distribution of the compound hazards based on the hazards level, the hazards occurrence time, and the corresponding losses. To examine the efficacy of VFS-IEM-IDM, a case study of the Typhoon-Rainstorm hazards that occurred in Shenzhen, China is presented. The risk assessment results indicate that hazards of level Ⅱ mostly occur in August and October, while hazards of level Ⅲ often occur in September. The risk of the Typhoon-Rainstorm hazards differs in each month and in August and September the risk gets the highest value, and the estimated economic losses are around 114 million RMB and 167 million RMB respectively.

Algorithm Realization of GUI Visualization Window Based on Numerical Simulation of Matlab

2014 ◽  
Vol 556-562 ◽  
pp. 3868-3871
Author(s):  
Ming Shi Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Calculation Error ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Financing Risk ◽  
Investment And Financing ◽  
Enterprise Investment

This paper uses EVA investment objective function and benefits to establish the risk assessment model of enterprise investment and financing combination, and expounds the specific processes of computer EVA investment and financing risk management and designs the elimination matrix algorithm. In order to validate the validity and reliability of risk assessment model designed in this paper, the third part has designed numerical simulation of MATLAB, and an enterprise's 2011-2013 financial statements is took as an example to assess enterprise investment and financing risk. It can find that through calculation, the calculation error can achieve good convergence effects in 20s, and obtain the MATLAB GUI visualization window of enterprise investment and financing EVA accounting. It can identify enterprise year EVA profit value by using visualization window, which provides theoretical reference for enterprises investment and financing risk management.

Review of Study of Ecological Risk Management

2014 ◽  
Vol 522-524 ◽  
pp. 1806-1809
Author(s):  
Hong Juan Yang ◽  
Lu Yao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Ecological Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Ecological Risks ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Literature Research ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Ecological Risk Management

With the development of society, the ecological risks continue to produce; ecological risk management is becoming urgent. This paper uses the literature research methods, focusing on the origin of ecological risks, the arising of ecological risk management, the ecological risk assessment model, and the relationship between ecological risk assessment and ecological risk management. Based on research at home and abroad, the paper proposes shortcomings of current research and three areas for further study in the future.

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