scholarly journals Evaluation of Dam Break Social Impact Assessments Based on an Improved Variable Fuzzy Set Model

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 970
Author(s):  
Guanjie He ◽  
Junrui Chai ◽  
Yuan Qin ◽  
Zengguang Xu ◽  
Shouyi Li
Keyword(s):  
Social Impact ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Grey System ◽  
High Loss ◽  
Dam Breaks ◽  
Theoretical System ◽  
The Social ◽  
Variable Fuzzy Sets

In recent years attention has shifted from “dam safety” to “dam risk” due to the high loss characteristics of dam breaks. Despite this, there has been little research on social impact assessments. Variable fuzzy sets (VFSs) are a theoretical system for dealing with uncertainty that are used in many industries. However, the relative membership degree (RMD) calculations required for VFSs are complicated and data can be overlooked. Furthermore, the RMD is highly subjective when dealing with qualitative problems, which can seriously affect the accuracy of the results. This study introduces grey system theory (GST) which analyzes the RMD characteristics to improve traditional VFSs. A new method for calculating the social impact of a dam break is proposed based on the correlation between the core parameters of the two theories. The Liujiatai Reservoir is used as a test case and the new and traditional evaluation methods are compared. The results show that the proposed method has advantages when dealing with uncertainty that are consistent with the characteristics of the problems associated with dam break social impact assessments. Moreover, the evaluation results obtained using the proposed method are consistent with, or more accurate than, those obtained using the traditional method.

scholarly journals Analysis of Social and Environmental Impact of Earth-Rock Dam Breaks Based on a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Gu ◽  
Xiao Fu ◽  
Yantao Zhu ◽  
Yijun Chen ◽  
Lixian Huang
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Method ◽  
Dam Breaks ◽  
The Social

A large proportion of the dams in China are earth-rock dams. Regarding the well-studied loss of life and economic consequences due to dam breaks, this paper introduces the causes and modes of earth-rock dam breaks and the corresponding dam-break losses in terms of the social and environmental aspects. This study formulates the evaluation index system and criteria of earth-rock dam breaks’ impact on society and the environment based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the evaluation grade of the social and environmental impact of the dam break of the Liujiatai Reservoir was “serious”. Therefore, similar dams in China should take corresponding measures in advance to reduce the social and environmental impact of earth-rock dam breaks.

Study on the Gray Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model about Dam-Break Consequences

2012 ◽  
Vol 594-597 ◽  
pp. 1965-1968
Author(s):  
Xiao Ling Wang ◽  
Qing Song Wang ◽  
Rui Rui Sun ◽  
Xue Fei Ao
Keyword(s):  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Environmental Influence ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Dam Breaks ◽  
The Social

The comprehensive evaluation of the dam-break consequences is an issue of crucial importance for defending natural disasters, protecting socio-economic and sustaining ecological development. The consequences of dam-break were analyzed, including life loss, economic loss and the social and environmental influence. The loss of life evaluation based on the improved Graham method was introduced. Depth, velocity and other hydraulic parameters of dam-break flood were obtained by the three-dimensional numerical simulation, which has proved to be a useful tool for dam-break consequences. AHP method was adopted to measure the weight of each factor. Grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of dam-break consequences was proposed. QING LINJING reservoir in Shenzhen was taken as a case. The results show that it will cause serious incidents once QING LINJING reservoir dam breaks.

The Social Impact of Suffering: Physical Pain Thwarts Social Needs

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Riva ◽  
James H. Wirth ◽  
Kipling D. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Social Impact ◽  
Social Needs ◽  
Physical Pain ◽  
The Social

Ukrainian migrant women’s social remittances: Contents and effects on families left behind

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Alice Vianello
Keyword(s):  
Social Impact ◽  
Economic Education ◽  
Cultural Resources ◽  
Migrant Women ◽  
Social Remittances ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Ethnographic Studies ◽  
Intergenerational Conflicts ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Right

This article examines different forms of Ukrainian migrant women’s social remittances, articulating some results of two ethnographic studies: one focused on the migration of Ukrainian women to Italy, and the other on the social impact of emigration in Ukraine. First, the paper illustrates the patterns of monetary remittance management, which will be defined as a specific form of social remittance, since they are practices shaped by systems of norms challenged by migration. In the second part, the article moves on to discuss other types of social remittances transferred by migrant women to their families left behind: the right of self-care and self-realisation; the recognition of alternative and more women-friendly life-course patterns; consumption styles and ideas on economic education. Therefore, I will explore the contents of social remittances, but also the gender and intergenerational conflicts that characterise these flows of cultural resources. 

Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Supervisory Authority ◽  
Error Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

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