scholarly journals A Landslide Probability Model Based on a Long-Term Landslide Inventory and Rainfall Factors

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Yi Wu ◽  
Yen-Chu Yeh
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Landslide Inventory ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
One Year

The prediction and advanced warning of landslide hazards in large-scale areas must deal with a large amount of uncertainty, therefore a growing number of studies are using stochastic models to analyze the probability of landslide occurrences. In this study, we used a modified Thiessen’s polygon method to divide the research area into several rain gauge control areas, and divided the control areas into slope units reflecting the topographic characteristics to enhance the spatial resolution of a landslide probability model. We used a 2000–2015 long-term landslide inventory, daily rainfall, and effective accumulated rainfall to estimate the rainfall threshold that can trigger landslides. We then employed a Poisson probability model and historical rainfall data from 1987 to 2016 to calculate the exceedance probability that rainfall events will exceed the threshold value. We calculated the number of landslides occurring from the events when rainfall exceeds the threshold value in the slope units to estimate the probability that a landslide will occur in this situation. Lastly, we employed the concept of conditional probability by multiplying this probability with the exceedance probability of rainfall events exceeding the threshold value, which yielded the probability that a landslide will occur in each slope unit for one year. The results indicated the slope units with high probability that at least one rainfall event will exceed the threshold value at the same time that one landslide will occur within any one year are largely located in the southwestern part of the Taipei Water Source Domain, and the highest probability is 0.26. These slope units are located in parts of the study area with relatively weak lithology, high elevations, and steep slopes. Compared with probability models based solely on landslide inventories, our proposed landslide probability model, combined with a long-term landslide inventory and rainfall factors, can avoid problems resulting from an incomplete landslide inventory, and can also be used to estimate landslide occurrence probability based on future potential changes in rainfall.

scholarly journals Lightning and precipitation produced by severe weather systems over Belém, Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (spe) ◽  
pp. 41-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanda Maria do Nascimento Ribeiro ◽  
José Ricardo Santos Souza ◽  
Márcio Nirlando Gomes Lopes ◽  
Renata Kelen Cardoso Câmara ◽  
Edson José Paulino Rocha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Electric Activity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Cg Lightning

CG Lightning flashes events monitored by a LDN of the Amazon Protection System, which included 12 LPATS IV VAISALA sensors distributed over eastern Amazonia, were analyzed during four severe rainstorm occurrences in Belem-PA-Brazil, in the 2006-2007 period. These selected case studies referred to rainfall events, which produced more than 25 mm/hour, or more than 40 mm/ 2 hours of precipitation rate totals, registered by a tipping bucket automatic high-resolution rain gauge, located at 1º 47' 53" S and 48º 30' 16" W. Centered at this location, a 30 ,10 and 5 km radius circles were drawn by means of a geographic information system, and the data from lightning occurrences within this larger area, were set apart for analysis. During these severe storms the CG lightning events, occurred almost randomly over the surrounding defined circle, previously covered by mesoscale convective systems, for all cases studied. This work also showed that the interaction between large-scale and mesoscale weather conditions have a major influence on the intensity of the storms studied cases. In addition to the enhancement of the lightning and precipitation rates, the electric activity within the larger circles can precede the rainfall at central point of the areas

scholarly journals A novel neural prosthesis providing long-term electrocorticography recording and cortical stimulation for epilepsy and brain-computer interface

2019 ◽  
Vol 130 (4) ◽  
pp. 1166-1179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantaleo Romanelli ◽  
Marco Piangerelli ◽  
David Ratel ◽  
Christophe Gaude ◽  
Thomas Costecalde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nonhuman Primate ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Brain Activity ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Cortical Stimulation ◽  
Neural Prosthesis ◽  
Lower Limbs ◽  
Custom Made

OBJECTIVEWireless technology is a novel tool for the transmission of cortical signals. Wireless electrocorticography (ECoG) aims to improve the safety and diagnostic gain of procedures requiring invasive localization of seizure foci and also to provide long-term recording of brain activity for brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). However, no wireless devices aimed at these clinical applications are currently available. The authors present the application of a fully implantable and externally rechargeable neural prosthesis providing wireless ECoG recording and direct cortical stimulation (DCS). Prolonged wireless ECoG monitoring was tested in nonhuman primates by using a custom-made device (the ECoG implantable wireless 16-electrode [ECOGIW-16E] device) containing a 16-contact subdural grid. This is a preliminary step toward large-scale, long-term wireless ECoG recording in humans.METHODSThe authors implanted the ECOGIW-16E device over the left sensorimotor cortex of a nonhuman primate (Macaca fascicularis), recording ECoG signals over a time span of 6 months. Daily electrode impedances were measured, aiming to maintain the impedance values below a threshold of 100 KΩ. Brain mapping was obtained through wireless cortical stimulation at fixed intervals (1, 3, and 6 months). After 6 months, the device was removed. The authors analyzed cortical tissues by using conventional histological and immunohistological investigation to assess whether there was evidence of damage after the long-term implantation of the grid.RESULTSThe implant was well tolerated; no neurological or behavioral consequences were reported in the monkey, which resumed his normal activities within a few hours of the procedure. The signal quality of wireless ECoG remained excellent over the 6-month observation period. Impedance values remained well below the threshold value; the average impedance per contact remains approximately 40 KΩ. Wireless cortical stimulation induced movements of the upper and lower limbs, and elicited fine movements of the digits as well. After the monkey was euthanized, the grid was found to be encapsulated by a newly formed dural sheet. The grid removal was performed easily, and no direct adhesions of the grid to the cortex were found. Conventional histological studies showed no cortical damage in the brain region covered by the grid, except for a single microscopic spot of cortical necrosis (not visible to the naked eye) in a region that had undergone repeated procedures of electrical stimulation. Immunohistological studies of the cortex underlying the grid showed a mild inflammatory process.CONCLUSIONSThis preliminary experience in a nonhuman primate shows that a wireless neuroprosthesis, with related long-term ECoG recording (up to 6 months) and multiple DCSs, was tolerated without sequelae. The authors predict that epilepsy surgery could realize great benefit from this novel prosthesis, providing an extended time span for ECoG recording.

Estimation of annual pollutant loadings in two small catchments and examination of their differences caused by regional properties

2006 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fujii ◽  
M. Moriya ◽  
P. Songprasert ◽  
H. Ihara
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
One Year ◽  
Small Catchments

A series of runoff surveys was conducted for more than one year in two small catchments of the Kamo River basin (75.4 km2) and the Takano River basin (66.8 km2) in Kyoto, Japan, which adjoin each other, and may have the same precipitation pattern. The investigation consisted of a high-frequency periodic survey, a long-term regular survey and a storm event survey. The survey results were compared with the regional properties of the basins, and the following results were obtained. (1) Pollutant loadings were successfully estimated as two portions of base discharge and storm events discharge from the survey results. (2) Estimated annual loading of the sites was 2.9–4.5, 1.3–1.8, 17–27, 1.3–2.2, 0.076–0.97 t/km2/y, respectively for CODMn, DOC, SS, TN and TP. (3) 52–53% of the whole flow, which was caused by rainfall events, conveyed 81–87, 68–73, 92–95, 64–67, 76–81% of the whole loading, respectively for CODMn, DOC, SS, TN and TP. (4) Differences of regional properties in two basins cause different runoff patterns, but the differences in runoff patterns also depend on the rainfall patterns. In general, a more urbanized basin receives early and strong influence of precipitation on the storm event runoff.

ANALYSIS OF CROP ROTATION SYSTEMS ORGANIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL COMPANIES OF TYUKALINSKY DISTRICT OF OMSK REGION ON THE LANDSCAPE AND ENVIRONMENTAL BASIS

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 24-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Маракаева ◽  
Tatyana Marakaeva ◽  
Ноженко ◽  
Tatyana Nozhenko
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Ecological Condition ◽  
Crop Rotations ◽  
Organic Fertilizers ◽  
Ecological Stability ◽  
Agricultural Organizations ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Moment

Results of the three-year analysis of the organization of systems of crop rotations on a landscape and ecological basis in large-scale enterprises of Tyukalinsky district of the Omsk region are presented in article. In the territory of the agricultural organizations the assessment of ecological condition of lands on the basis of an assessment of the main components of a landscape was carried out: climatic, a relief, vegetation, soils, ground waters, the spreading breeds. It is established that in farms the following types of soils prevail: meadow, marsh, solonetzic soils, malt, meadow and chernozem solonetzic and chernozem and meadow solonetzic. Therefore, there are an average ecological intensity of lands in ООО “Atrachi” - 45.8%, ООО “Chistoe” - 58.9%, ООО “Agrokom” - 1%, and also strong manifestation of processes of remoistening and salinization is revealed (27%, 41,1% and 90% of the total area of an arable land in farms). Critical condition of arable lands is noted in ООО “Atrachi” (27.2%), at the moment they actually aren´t used and aren´t demanded. The analyzed agricultural organizations cultivate grain crops (24.7% - 41.0%), one-year (3.9%-21.4%) and long-term herbs (33.6% - 43.4%). In this regard two types of crop rotations are used: field and fodder. As a result of ecological justification of crop rotations, calculation of balance of a humus has shown that completion of its deficiency requires introduction of a certain amount of organic substances and implementation of replacement of a fallow land on sideralny with a zapakhivaniye of elevated mass of plants to the soil as additional organic fertilizers. After the carried-out analysis us it is recommended to include in crop rotations phytoameliorants, steady against salinization (the tributary white), to make replacement of long-term herbs on steady against remoistening of soils (a ribbon grass reed or a herd grass meadow). The use of correctly designed crop rotations, taking into account all complex of landscape and ecological conditions, will allow to stabilize negative natural and anthropogenous processes, to provide their big ecological stability.

The Synoptic Climatology of Cool-Season Rainfall in the Central Wheatbelt of Western Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Pook ◽  
James S. Risbey ◽  
Peter C. McIntosh
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Synoptic Weather ◽  
Proportional Contribution ◽  
Cutoff Low ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract Synoptic weather systems form an important part of the physical link between remote large-scale climate drivers and regional rainfall. A synoptic climatology of daily rainfall events is developed for the Central Wheatbelt of southwestern Australia over the April–October growing season for the years 1965–2009. The climatology reveals that frontal systems contribute approximately one-half of the rainfall in the growing season while cutoff lows contribute about a third. The ratio of frontal rainfall to cutoff rainfall varies throughout the growing season. Cutoff lows contribute over 40% of rainfall in the austral autumn and spring, but this falls to about 20% in August when frontal rainfall climbs to more than 60%. The number of cutoff lows varies markedly from one growing season to another, but does not exhibit a significant long-term trend. The mean rainfall per cutoff system is also highly variable, but has gradually declined over the analysis period, particularly in the past decade. The decline in rainfall per frontal system is less significant. Cutoff low rainfall has contributed more strongly in percentage terms to the recent decline in rainfall in the Central Wheatbelt than the frontal component and accounts for more than half of the overall trend. Atmospheric blocking is highly correlated with rainfall in the region where cutoff low rainfall makes its highest proportional contribution. Hence, the decline in rain from cutoff low systems is likely to have been associated with changes in blocking and the factors controlling blocking in the region.

scholarly journals Treatment Outcomes of Clopidogrel in Patients With ACS and Diabetes Undergoing PCI-analysis of Beijing Medicare Database

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weihao Wang ◽  
Xiaoxia Wang ◽  
Lina Zhang ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Fuli Man ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Chinese Patients ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Patients With Diabetes ◽  
One Year ◽  
Medicare Database

Abstract Background There are several clinical trials that proved the efficacy of clopidogrel treatment for patients with percutaneous coronary intervention. There are few large-scale research to explore the mortality associated with different duration use of clopidogrel in patients with diabetes and ACS undergoing PCI in the Chinese population. Objectives The objective of this analysis was to determine the efficacy of long-term clopidogrel therapy(≥ 12 months) versus short-term use(< 12 months) in Chinese patients with diabetes after PCI. Methods Using the Beijing Medicare database provided by Beijing Medical Security Bureau. The Beijing Medicare database contains medical data of about 16 million people, including about 990,000 patients with diabetes and a history of taking antidiabetic medicines. Patients were divided into two groups, one group of 9,116 patients receiving consecutive clopidogrel for one year or more, and another group of 3290 patients receiving consecutive clopidogrel less than one year. The primary of this analysis was the risk of all-cause death, myocardial infarction and revascularization. Results In patients with diabetes after PCI, long-term clopidogrel treatment was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause death(HR, 0.57[95%CI, 0.49–0.67], P < 0.0001), myocardial infarction(HR, 0.79[95%CI, 0.68–0.93], P = 0.0035) and an increased risk of angina(HR, 1.18[95%CI, 1.10–1.27], P < 0.0001]) and revascularization(HR, 1.07[95%CI, 1.01–1.13], P = 0.02]). There was no significant difference in the incidence of all-cause re-hospitalization(P = 0.7529), diabetes-related re-hospitalization and cerebrovascular re-hospitalization. Conclusion The present study concluded that long-term dual anti-platelet therapy including clopidogrel and aspirin could decrease the risks of all-cause death, myocardial infarction. But it could increase the risks of angina and revascularization. Further studies should interpret the cause of this question.

An Analytical Survey on Diagnosis Algorithm in Generic Defect Large-Scale Failures in Computer Networks

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Jaychand Vishwakarma ◽  
Sakil Ahmad Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Negative Symptoms ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Dynamic Threshold ◽  
Ranking Algorithm ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Generation Algorithm ◽  
Diagnosis Algorithm ◽  
Hypotheses Generation ◽  
Positive And Negative Symptoms

We present a framework and a set of algorithms for determining faults in networks when large scale outages occur. The design principles of our algorithm, netCSI, are motivated by the fact that failures are geographically clustered in such cases. We address the challenge of determining faults with incomplete symptom information due to a limited number of reporting nodes. netCSI consists of two parts: a hypotheses generation algorithm, and a ranking algorithm. When constructing the hypothesis list of potential causes, we make novel use of positive and negative symptoms to improve the precision of the results. In addition, we propose pruning and thresholding along with a dynamic threshold value selector, to reduce the complexity of our algorithm. The ranking algorithm is based on conditional failure probability models that account for the geographic correlation of the network objects in clustered failures. We evaluate the performance of netCSI for networks with both random and realistic topologies. We compare the performance of netCSI with an existing fault diagnosis algorithm, MAX-COVERAGE, and demonstrate an average gain of 128 percent in accuracy for realistic topologies.

Large-scale tests to investigate MgO concrete with a long-term stable 3-1-8 phase in the Sondershausen and Teutschenthal mines

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Aurich ◽  
Daniela Freyer ◽  
Matthias Gruner ◽  
Wolfram Kudla
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Salt Mine ◽  
Binding Reaction ◽  
Scale Experiment ◽  
One Year ◽  
Mgo Concrete ◽  
Large Scale Tests ◽  
Sealing Elements ◽  
Vertical Borehole

&lt;p&gt;These abstract bases on the R &amp; D project ELSA Phase II - Concept development for shaft seals and testing of sealing elements for HAW repositories, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Energy and Economic Affairs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The installation of sealing elements in salt rock requires a mechanical support system, which is chemical compatible with the host rock. In future HAW-repositories abutments and sealing elements within the shafts and drifts could be made of magnesia building material with the long term stable 3-1-8 binder phase, if solution containing magnesium can attack the seal.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In 2014 a first large-scale experiment was performed in the Sondershausen salt mine in Germany. A vertical borehole with the depth of two meters and a diameter of 1.1 meter was filled with the magnesia-based concrete. Several sensors measured the development of temperature, comprehensive stress and expansion within the test construction for approximately one year. During the binding reaction the temperature increased by 55 K in the center. After 150 days, the expansion in axial direction reached 2.4 mm/m and 1.1 mm/m in radial direction.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In 2018 a second large-scale-experiment was performed in the Teutschenthal salt mine, Germany to continue the investigations. A new vertical borehole with the depth of 3.5 meters and a diameter of 1.3 meters was filled with the same material. The temperature in the center increased by 40 K during the binding reaction and decreased down to the ambient temperature after 20 days. In result of the first experiences, the stress sensor range was increased. After one year a comprehensive stress of 6.2 MPa was measured at the contour and is still evolving at this point (early 2020). The maximum axial expansion reached 7.9 mm/m and stays at this level. The maximum radial expansion reached 0.7 mm/m 20 days after concreting and decreased subsequently. This material behavior corresponds to the high comprehensive stress level.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The second experiment is equipped with a pressure chamber at the bottom. A first determination of the integral gas permeability revealed a value of approx. 3E&lt;sup&gt;-18 &lt;/sup&gt;m&amp;#178; to 3E&lt;sup&gt;-17 &lt;/sup&gt;m&amp;#178;. In the near term a multistage pressurization of the construction is planned, using a saturated NaCl solution to evaluate the sealing ability.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This contribution reports on the measured parameters (temperature, stress, strain) of the two large-scale tests with long-term stable MgO-concrete and the composition requirements to obtain a long-term stable MgO concrete. Long-term stable MgO concrete with 3-1-8 phase has been used for the first time in these tests. The measured test-results are the foundation for modelling the behaviour of the MgO-concrete.&lt;/p&gt;

Research of High Performance Artificial Reef for Breeding Abalone in Sea Water

2006 ◽  
Vol 302-303 ◽  
pp. 398-404
Author(s):  
Ming Tang ◽  
Xiao Li ◽  
Tao Wang
Keyword(s):  
High Performance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Artificial Reef ◽  
Silicon Powder ◽  
Ocean Current ◽  
Concrete Technology ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
One Year

According to abalone’s growth characteristics, artificial abalone reefs are invented in this paper. The trace elements are added in concrete. The proportion is fixed by test. Ocean alga adheres to reefs with them very well. The craft, matching optimization, curing terms in the island environment and concrete long-term stability in the ocean current are studied to solve the durability of reefs in the marine environment. It shows the durability of fishing reef by high performance, high function, and ecological concrete technology is reliable. Its strength is still increasing for one year and no damage has been found. It is feasible to use the complex admixture, high-quality fly ash, ultrafine silicon powder, surface-soaking-into water-hating material made by our own, adhering-shaking-compact molding equipment made by ourselves and solar-energy-curing technology. Ten thousands of large-scale artificial abalone reefs have been done. A large amount of marine organisms covered the reefs only after 40 days using.

Development of a procedure to determine odour emissions from animal farming for regulatory purposes in Flanders

2001 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 205-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Van Langenhove ◽  
G. De Bruyn
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Ventilation Rate ◽  
External Parameter ◽  
Animal Farming ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Odour Emissions ◽  
One Year ◽  
Fattening Pigs

The purpose of the project described in this paper was to develop a procedure to determine odour emissions at existing and new intensive animal farming houses. The procedure should be scientifically valid and preferably applicable on a large scale at reasonable costs. In this project odour emissions were measured during one year at the same farm. Measurements included 20 olfactometric sampling days and 50 sniffing measurements, all spread over one year. For each olfactometric sampling day, samples were taken in duplicate for the different pig categories. The olfactometric analysis resulted in the determination of odour emission factors for growing/fattening pigs, weaned piglets, dry sows and farrowing sows. The influence of external parameters (ventilation rate, inside temperature, outside temperature, pen dirtiness, number of pigs and their weight) was examined. Good correlation between the odour emission and an external parameter could only be found for the ventilation rate (r = 0.98) and outside temperature (r = 0.87). The sniffing measurements resulted in maximal odour perception distances and odour emissions calculated with short and long term dispersion models. No significant influence of the outside temperature (season) could be found here. The results of the olfactometric and sniffing measurements will be presented, including a combination of both techniques to determine the odour emission of an agricultural construction.

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