scholarly journals Comparative Assessment of Spatial Variability and Trends of Flows and Sediments under the Impact of Climate Change in the Upper Indus Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 730
Author(s):  
Waqas Ul Hussan ◽  
Muhammad Khurram Shahzad ◽  
Frank Seidel ◽  
Anna Costa ◽  
Franz Nestmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Upper Indus Basin ◽  
The Impact

Extensive research of the variability of flows under the impact of climate change has been conducted for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). However, limited literature is available on the spatial distribution and trends of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) in the sub-basins of UIB. This study covers the comparative assessment of flows and SSC trends measured at 13 stations in the UIB along with the variability of precipitation and temperatures possibly due to climate change for the past three decades. In the course of this period, the country’s largest reservoir, Tarbela, on the Indus River was depleted rapidly due to heavy sediment influx from the UIB. Sediment management of existing storage and future planned hydraulic structures (to tap 30,000 MW in the region) depends on the correct assessment of SSC, their variation patterns, and trends. In this study, the SSC trends are determined along with trends of discharges, precipitation, and temperatures using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results reveal that the annual flows and SSC are in a balanced state for the Indus River at Besham Qila, whereas the SSC are significantly reduced ranging from 18.56%–28.20% per decade in the rivers of Gilgit at Alam Bridge, Indus at Kachura, and Brandu at Daggar. The SSC significantly increase ranging from 20.08%–40.72% per decade in the winter together with a significant increase of average air temperature. During summers, the SSC are decreased significantly ranging from 18.63%–27.79% per decade along with flows in the Hindukush and Western–Karakorum regions, which is partly due to the Karakorum climate anomaly, and in rainfall-dominated basins due to rainfall reduction. In Himalayan regions, the SSC are generally increased slightly during summers. These findings will be helpful for understanding the sediment trends associated with flow, precipitation, and temperature variations, and may be used for the operational management of current reservoirs and the design of several hydroelectric power plants that are planned for construction in the UIB.

scholarly journals A Comparative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change and Energy Policies on Alpine Hydropower

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (11) ◽  
pp. 9144-9161 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Anghileri ◽  
M. Botter ◽  
A. Castelletti ◽  
H. Weigt ◽  
P. Burlando
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Energy Policies ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change Using Trend Analysis of Rainfall, RRL AWBM Toolkit, Synthetic and Arbitrary Scenarios

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Ayushi Trivedi ◽  
S. K. Pyasi ◽  
R. V. Galkate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Impact

The integrated approach for assessment of the impact of climate change is important, as climate impacts are likely to transcend sectoral or regional boundaries, with impacts of change in hydrological and geological behaviour of one sector affecting the behaviour of another or simultaneously any other sector, or region, to respond. Modelling is often used by hydrologists in the analysis of empirical data to gain insights into the underlying dynamics of simulated runoff and its trend changing pattern. Thus, these models extrapolate from a climate-related (usually temperature-related) relationship derived by observations and experiment. The climate changes have adverse and drastic impacts on climate-sensitive sectors such as water resources, agriculture and ultimately livelihood and economy of the people. Thus consequently increase or decrease in temperature, rainfall and other climatic parameters due to climate change affect the river discharge, flood, reservoir storages, groundwater levels, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, crop production, sea levels etc. Keeping this insight patches of major changes from the whole study area were selected to assess the intensity of rainfall, discharge and the incremental impact of rainfall. The temporal analysis in selected patches revealed that increment and decrement in the study area simultaneously affect the runoff by the same proportion. The trend generated through the Mann-Kendall test not only helped in assessing the impact of climate change but also identified its causative actors. The results of the study can effectively be utilized for setting priorities of hydrological behaviour in different geographical regions at various scales.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Yield Using Spatial Analysis and Statistical Modeling in the Indus River Basin, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naveed M ◽  
◽  
He HS ◽  
Yasir QM ◽  
Du H ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Cotton Yield ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Cotton Crop ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Indus River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Cotton is an excessive growing fiber crop in the world. In Pakistan, climate warming is hurting the cotton crop. To identify countermeasures of climate change impacts on crop production, it is needed to explore the changes in crop yield and their relationship to climate change. This study, we conducted spatial analysis of cotton yield and climate data in the Indus River basin in Pakistan from 1989- 2018. We analyzed the trend in cotton production indices and climate variables using the Mann-Kendal nonparametric test, and the impact of climate change on cotton yield through Pearson’s correlation and best-subset multivariate linear regression model. Sunshine hours positively impacted on cotton yield, but an increasing trend in average temperature, minimum temperature and air relative humidity in main crop areas had a negative impact on the cotton crop. Our results illustrate the relationship between the cotton yield and climate change variables on regional basis in the Indus River basin, Pakistan. This research could provide a reference for understanding the intolerance of cotton in the Indus River basin, Pakistan to climate change.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of climate change on wheat and sugarcane with the AquaCrop model along the Indus River Basin, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 253 ◽  
pp. 106909
Author(s):  
J. Alvar-Beltrán ◽  
A. Heureux ◽  
R. Soldan ◽  
R. Manzanas ◽  
B. Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Indus River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Impact of climate change on yields of major agricultural crops in Tripura

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhargabi Chakraborty ◽  
Sujoy Hazari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Significant Rise ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change is studied in many aspects in different locations in the country and it is concluded that there is high impact on agriculture compared to any other sector in the country. In the present study, long time (1996-2015) weather variables have been analyzed to trend changes using non-parametric Mann Kendall test in Tripura (2309408‘N latitude, 9109882‘ E longitude), located in the North-Eastern Hill Regions of India, representing agro-climatic zone of Mild Tropical Plain Zone. Significant rise in temperature, confounding rainfall amount, distribution and frequency variability, decline in atmospheric evaporative demand via complementary relationship with relative humidity provides sufficient indication that like other parts of India and the Tripura located at NE Region is also experiencing the regional impact of climate change, though the magnitude of change may not be the same. The Evaporation and Relative humidity effects have been found significant almost all the crops, indicating that inclusion of spatial fixed effects in climate model is important for controlling time-invariant location specific characteristics. The annual rainfall was found to be significant effect to rice productivity and temperature was significant to the crop line maize and groundnut.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on water inflow of the three largest dams in the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region

2021 ◽  
Vol 314 ◽  
pp. 03002
Author(s):  
Yousra El Baki ◽  
Khalid Boutoial ◽  
Abdelouahid Medaghri-Alaoui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Yearly Average ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
Beni Mellal ◽  
The Impact

Drought and water scarcity are resulting from the effects of climate change during recent decades. The region of Beni Mellal Khenifra, by the nature of its economic activities based particularly on agriculture and the availability of water resources, is considered among the most vulnerable regions to the effects of climate change in Morocco. In this paper, we analyzed the impact of climate change on the three largest dams in the region (Hassan first, Bin El Ouidane and Ahmed El Hansali), based on statistical data from five stations over 1990-2020. We used Normalized Precipitation Index (SPI) to characterize climatic drought, the Mann-Kendall test to assess the trend of temperature changes, Kendall’s tau and linear regression to detect the relationship between climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) and water supplies from the three dams. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) results showed that the region underwent a significant rainfall deficit between 19911995, 2000-2003, 2005-2008, and 2017-2020. Their intensity varies from moderate to severe type. Moreover, temperature values obtained by Mann– Kendall test showed an increasing trend for all stations. Correlation analysis of rainfall and temperature with inflow dams showed that the mean annual inflows dams are directly proportional to the yearly average SPI increase.

scholarly journals A SWAT modeling approach to assess the impact of climate change on consumptive water use in Lower Chenab Canal area of Indus basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 1025-1037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Umar Waqas Liaqat ◽  
Minha Choi ◽  
Ali Ismaeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Consumptive Water Use ◽  
Consumptive Water ◽  
The Impact

Accurate assessment of spatio-temporal variations of consumptive water use (CWU) in large irrigation schemes is crucial for several hydrological applications. This study is designed to evaluate the impact of climate change on CWU in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) irrigation scheme of the Indus basin irrigation system of Pakistan. A distributed hydrological model, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), was spatially calibrated (2005–2009) and validated (2010–2012) for monthly CWU. The estimated CWU using the SWAT model showed promising results (the coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.87 ± 0.06, Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) = 0.83 ± 0.06)) when compared with CWU determined by the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm (SEBAL) (R2 = 0.87 ± 0.06, NSE = 0.83 ± 0.06). Future evaluation, performed by considering the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios, showed that changes in temperature and rainfall would significantly influence the CWU in the LCC scheme. Compared with the reference period, annual water consumption in the basin would increase overall by 7% and 11% at the end of 2020 with monthly variations of –40% to 60% and –17% to 80% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. The water managers in the region have to consider this fluctuating consumptive use in water allocation plans due to climate change for better management of available water resources.

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