scholarly journals Future Landslide Characteristic Assessment Using Ensemble Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 564
Author(s):  
Yung-Ming Chen ◽  
Chi-Wen Chen ◽  
Yi-Chiung Chao ◽  
Yu-Shiang Tung ◽  
Jun-Jih Liou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Severe Case ◽  
Ensemble Method ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Landslide Area ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
The Ensemble Method

Affected by climate change owing to global warming, the frequency of extreme rainfall events has gradually increased in recent years. Many studies have analyzed the impacts of climate change in various fields. However, uncertainty about the scenarios they used is still an important issue. This study used two and four multi-scenarios at the base period (1979–2003) and the end of the 21st century (2075–2099) to collect the top-ranking typhoons and analyze the rainfall conditions of these typhoons in two catchments in northern Taiwan. The landslide-area characteristics caused by these typhoons were estimated using empirical relationships, with rainfall conditions established by a previous study. In addition to counting landslide-area characteristics caused by the typhoons of each single scenario, we also used the ensemble method to combine all scenarios to calculate landslide-area characteristic statistics. Comparing the statistical results of each single scenario and the ensembles, we found that the ensemble method minimized the uncertainty and identified the possible most severe case from the simulation. We further separated typhoons into the top 5%, 5%–10%, and 10%–15% to confirm possible changes in landslide-area characteristics under climate change. We noticed that the uncertainty of the base period and the end of the 21st century almost overlapped if only a single scenario was used. In contrast, the ensemble approach successfully distinguished the differences in both the average values of landslide-area characteristics and the 95% confidence intervals. The ensemble results indicated that the landslide magnitude triggered by medium- and high-level typhoons (top 5%–15%) will increase by 24%–29% and 125%–200% under climate change in the Shihmen Reservoir catchment and the Xindian River catchment, respectively, while landslides triggered by extreme-level typhoons (top 5%) will increase by 8% and 77%, respectively. Still, the uncertainty of landslide-area characteristics caused by extreme typhoon events is slightly high, indicating that we need to include more possible scenarios in future work.

scholarly journals Riverbed Migrations in Western Taiwan under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Chiung Chao ◽  
Chi-Wen Chen ◽  
Hsin-Chi Li ◽  
Yung-Ming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Flow Discharge ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, extreme weather phenomena have occurred worldwide, resulting in many catastrophic disasters. Under the impact of climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Taiwan will increase, according to a report on climate change in Taiwan. This study analyzed riverbed migrations, such as degradation and aggradation, caused by extreme rainfall events under climate change for the Choshui River, Taiwan. We used the CCHE1D model to simulate changes in flow discharge and riverbed caused by typhoon events for the base period (1979–2003) and the end of the 21st century (2075–2099) according to the climate change scenario of representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) and dynamical downscaling of rainfall data in Taiwan. According to the results on flow discharge, at the end of the 21st century, the average peak flow during extreme rainfall events will increase by 20% relative to the base period, but the time required to reach the peak will be 8 h shorter than that in the base period. In terms of the results of degradation and aggradation of the riverbed, at the end of the 21st century, the amount of aggradation will increase by 33% over that of the base period. In the future, upstream sediment will be blocked by the Chichi weir, increasing the severity of scouring downstream. In addition, due to the increased peak flow discharge in the future, the scouring of the pier may be more serious than it is currently. More detailed 2D or 3D hydrological models are necessary in future works, which could adequately address the erosive phenomena created by bridge piers. Our results indicate that not only will flood disasters occur within a shorter time duration, but the catchment will also face more severe degradation and aggradation in the future.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on landslides in Slovenia in the mid-21st century

Geologija ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-171
Author(s):  
Mateja JEMEC AUFLIČ ◽  
Gašper BOKAL ◽  
Špela KUMELJ ◽  
Anže MEDVED ◽  
Mojca DOLINAR ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Landslide Occurrence ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Slovenia is affected by extreme and intense rainfall that triggers numerous landslides every year, resulting in significant human impact and damage to infrastructure. Previous studies on landslides have shown how rainfall patterns can influence landslide occurrence, while in this paper, we present one of the first study in Slovenia to examine the impact of climate change on landslides in the mid-21st century. To do this, we used the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario and future climatology simulated by six climate models that differed from each other as much as possible while representing measured values of past climate variables as closely as possible. Based on baseline period (1981-2010) we showed the number of days with exceedance of rainfall thresholds and the area where landslides may occur more frequently in the projection period (2041-2070). We found that extreme rainfall events are likely to occur more frequent in the future, which may lead to a higher frequency of landslides in some areas.

Changes in grassland ecosystem function due to extreme rainfall events: implications for responses to climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1600-1608 ◽  
Author(s):  
PHILIP A. FAY ◽  
DAWN M. KAUFMAN ◽  
JESSE B. NIPPERT ◽  
JONATHAN D. CARLISLE ◽  
CHRISTOPHER W. HARPER
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Function ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Grassland Ecosystem ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events

scholarly journals Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride From Climate Change? Evidence From Argentine Time Series

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hildegart Ahumada ◽  
Magdalena Cornejo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Correction

Soybean yields are often indicated as an interesting case of climate change mitigation due to the beneficial effects of CO2 fertilization. In this paper we econometrically study this effect using a time series model of yields in a multivariate framework for a main producer and exporter of this commodity, Argentina. We have to deal with the upward behavior of soybean yields trying to identify which variables are the long-run determinants responsible of its observed trend. With this aim we adopt a partial system approach to estimate subsets of long-run relationships due to climate, technological and economic factors. Using an automatic selection algorithm we evaluate encompassing of the different obtained equilibrium correction models. We found that only technological innovations due to new crop practices and the use of modified seeds explain soybean yield in the long run. Regarding short run determinants we found positive effects associated with the use of standard fertilizers and also from changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration which would suggest a mitigation effect from global warming. However, we also found negative climate effects from periods of droughts associated with La Niña episodes, high temperatures and extreme rainfall events during the growing season of the plant.

scholarly journals PROJECTION OF INCIDENT SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION IN CHINA UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W9 ◽  
pp. 187-194
Author(s):  
Y. K. Xiao ◽  
Z. M. Ji ◽  
C. S. Fu ◽  
W. T. Du ◽  
J. H. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation

Abstract. We projected incident surface solar radiation (SSR) over China in the middle (2040–2059) and end (2080–2099) of the 21st century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario using a multi-model ensemble derived from the weighted average of seven global climate models (GCMs). The multi-model ensemble captured the contemporary (1979–2005) spatial and temporal characteristics of SSR and reproduced the long-term temporal evolution of the mean annual SSR in China. However, it tended to overestimate values compared to observations due to the absence of aerosol effects in the simulations. The future changes in SSR showed increases over eastern and southern China, and decreases over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and northwest China relative to the present day. At the end of the 21st century, there were SSR increases of 9–21 W m−2 over northwest, central, and south China, and decreases of 18–30 W m−2 over the TP in June–July–August (JJA). In northeast China, SSR showed seasonal variation with increases in JJA and decreases in December–January–February. The time series of annual SSR had a decreased linear trend for the TP, and a slightly increased trend for China during 2006–2099. The results of our study suggest that solar energy resources will likely decrease in the TP under future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 388-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Tavakolifar ◽  
Ebrahim Shahghasemi ◽  
Sara Nazif
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Synoptic Weather Typing

Climate change has impacted all phenomena in the hydrologic cycle, especially extreme events. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to investigate climate change impacts but because of their low resolution, downscaling methods are developed to provide data with high enough resolution for regional studies from GCM outputs. The performance of rainfall downscaling methods is commonly acceptable in preserving average characteristics, but they do not preserve the extreme event characteristics especially rainfall amount and distribution. In this study, a novel downscaling method called synoptic statistical downscaling model is proposed for daily precipitation downscaling with an emphasis on extreme event characteristics preservation. The proposed model is applied to a region located in central Iran. The results show that the developed model can downscale all percentiles of precipitation events with an acceptable performance and there is no assumption about the similarity of future rainfall data with the historical observations. The outputs of CCSM4 GCM for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to investigate the climate change impacts in the study region. The results show 40% and 30% increase in the number of extreme rainfall events under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.

scholarly journals Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp de Vrese ◽  
Tobias Stacke ◽  
Thomas Kleinen ◽  
Victor Brovkin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Soil Co2 ◽  
Linear Dependency ◽  
Soil Co2 Emissions

Abstract. The present study investigates the response of the high latitude's carbon cycle to in- and decreasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in idealized climate change scenarios. For this, we use an adapted version of JSBACH – the land-surface component of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) – that accounts for the organic matter stored in the permafrost-affected soils of the high northern latitudes. To force the model, we use different climate scenarios that assume an increase in GHG concentrations, following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5, until peaks in the years 2025, 2050, 2075 or 2100, respectively. The peaks are followed by a decrease in atmospheric GHGs that returns the concentrations to the levels at the beginning of the 21st century. We show that the soil CO2 emissions exhibit an almost linear dependency on the global mean surface temperatures that are simulated for the different climate scenarios. Here, each degree of warming increases the fluxes by, very roughly, 50 % of their initial value, while each degree of cooling decreases them correspondingly. However, the linear dependency does not mean that the processes governing the soil CO2 emissions are fully reversible on short timescales, but rather that two strongly hysteretic factors offset each other – namely the vegetation's net primary productivity and the availability of formerly frozen soil organic matter. In contrast, the soil methane emissions show almost no increase with rising temperatures and they are consistently lower after than prior to a peak in the GHG concentrations. Here, the fluxes can even become negative and we find that methane emissions will play only a minor role in the northern high latitudes' contribution to global warming, even when considering the gas's high global warming potential. Finally, we find that the high-latitude ecosystem acts as a source of atmospheric CO2 rather than a sink, with the net fluxes into the atmosphere increasing substantially with rising atmospheric GHG concentrations. This is very different to scenario simulations with the standard version of the MPI-ESM in which the region continues to take up atmospheric CO2 throughout the entire 21st century, confirming that the omission of permafrost-related processes and the organic matter stored in the frozen soils leads to a fundamental misrepresentation of the carbon dynamics in the Arctic.

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