scholarly journals Hydrological Foundation as a Basis for a Holistic Environmental Flow Assessment of Tropical Highland Rivers in Ethiopia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wubneh B. Abebe ◽  
Seifu A. Tilahun ◽  
Michael M. Moges ◽  
Ayalew Wondie ◽  
Minychl G. Derseh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
Current Flow ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Floodplain Wetlands ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
Large Floods

The sustainable development of water resources includes retaining some amount of the natural flow regime in water bodies to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystem health and the human livelihoods and wellbeing dependent upon them. Although assessment of environmental flows is now occurring globally, limited studies have been carried out in the Ethiopian highlands, especially studies to understand flow-ecological response relationships. This paper establishes a hydrological foundation of Gumara River from an ecological perspective. The data analysis followed three steps: first, determination of the current flow regime—flow indices and ecologically relevant flow regime; second, naturalization of the current flow regime—looking at how flow regime is changing; and, finally, an initial exploration of flow linkages with ecological processes. Flow data of Gumara River from 1973 to 2018 are used for the analysis. Monthly low flow occurred from December to June; the lowest being in March, with a median flow of 4.0 m3 s−1. Monthly high flow occurred from July to November; the highest being in August, with a median flow of 236 m3 s−1. 1-Day low flows decreased from 1.55 m3 s−1 in 1973 to 0.16 m3 s−1 in 2018, and 90-Day (seasonal) low flow decreased from 4.9 m3 s−1 in 1973 to 2.04 m3 s−1 in 2018. The Mann–Kendall trend test indicated that the decrease in low flow was significant for both durations at α = 0.05. A similar trend is indicated for both durations of high flow. The decrease in both low flows and high flows is attributed to the expansion of pump irrigation by 29 km2 and expansion of plantations, which resulted in an increase of NDVI from 0.25 in 2000 to 0.29 in 2019. In addition, an analysis of environmental flow components revealed that only four “large floods” appeared in the last 46 years; no “large flood” occurred after 1988. Lacking “large floods” which inundate floodplain wetlands has resulted in early disconnection of floodplain wetlands from the river and the lake; which has impacts on breeding and nursery habitat shrinkage for migratory fish species in Lake Tana. On the other hand, the extreme decrease in “low flow” components has impacts on predators, reducing their mobility and ability to access prey concentrated in smaller pools. These results serve as the hydrological foundation for continued studies in the Gumara catchment, with the eventual goal of quantifying environmental flow requirements.

scholarly journals Contrasting Differences in Responses of Streamflow Regimes between Reforestation and Fruit Tree Planting in a Subtropical Watershed of China

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhipeng Xu ◽  
Wenfei Liu ◽  
Xiaohua Wei ◽  
Houbao Fan ◽  
Yizao Ge ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
Fruit Tree ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Tree Planting ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Jiangxi Province ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Flow Duration ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
High Flows

Fruit tree planting is a common practice for alleviating poverty and restoring degraded environment in developing countries. Yet, its environmental effects are rarely assessed. The Jiujushui watershed (261.4 km2), located in the subtropical Jiangxi Province of China, was selected to assess responses of several flow regime components on both reforestation and fruit tree planting. Three periods of forest changes, including a reference (1961 to 1985), reforestation (1986 to 2000) and fruit tree planting (2001 to 2016) were identified for assessment. Results suggest that the reforestation significantly decreased the average magnitude of high flow by 8.78%, and shortened high flow duration by 2.2 days compared with the reference. In contrast, fruit tree planting significantly increased the average magnitude of high flow by 27.43%. For low flows, reforestation significantly increased the average magnitude by 46.38%, and shortened low flow duration by 8.8 days, while the fruit tree planting had no significant impact on any flow regime components of low flows. We conclude that reforestation had positive impacts on high and low flows, while to our surprise, fruit tree planting had negative effects on high flows, suggesting that large areas of fruit tree planting may potentially become an important driver for some negative hydrological effects in our study area.

ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES IN THE ŠUŠVĖ RIVER

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gražina ŽIBIENĖ ◽  
Alvydas ŽIBAS ◽  
Goda BLAŽAITYTĖ
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Maximum Flow ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Physical Structure ◽  
River Channels ◽  
Hydrologic Alteration ◽  
Water Conditions ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Floods

The construction of dams in rivers negatively affects ecosystems because dams violate the continuity of rivers, transform the biological and physical structure of the river channels, and the most importantly – alter the hydrological regime. The impact on the hydrology of the river can occur through reducing or increasing flows, altering seasonality of flows, changing the frequency, duration and timing of flow events, etc. In order to determine the extent of the mentioned changes, The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software was used in this paper. The results showed that after the construction of Angiriai dam, such changes occurred in IHA Parameters group as: the water conditions of April month decreased by 31 %; 1-day, 3-days, 7-days and 30-days maximum flow decreased; the date of minimum flow occurred 21 days later; duration of high and low pulses and the frequency of low pulses decreased, but the frequency of high pulses increased, etc. The analysis of the Environmental Flow Components showed, that the essential differences were recorded in groups of the small and large floods, when, after the establishment of the Šušvė Reservoir, the large floods no longer took place and the probability of frequency of the small floods didn’t exceed 1 time per year.

scholarly journals Accounting for environmental flow requirements in global water assessments

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 5041-5059 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. V. Pastor ◽  
F. Ludwig ◽  
H. Biemans ◽  
H. Hoff ◽  
P. Kabat
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Ecological Condition ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Human Needs ◽  
High Flows ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. As the water requirement for food production and other human needs grows, quantification of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) is necessary to assess the amount of water needed to sustain freshwater ecosystems. EFRs are the result of the quantification of water necessary to sustain the riverine ecosystem, which is calculated from the mean of an environmental flow (EF) method. In this study, five EF methods for calculating EFRs were compared with 11 case studies of locally assessed EFRs. We used three existing methods (Smakhtin, Tennant, and Tessmann) and two newly developed methods (the variable monthly flow method (VMF) and the Q90_Q50 method). All methods were compared globally and validated at local scales while mimicking the natural flow regime. The VMF and the Tessmann methods use algorithms to classify the flow regime into high, intermediate, and low-flow months and they take into account intra-annual variability by allocating EFRs with a percentage of mean monthly flow (MMF). The Q90_Q50 method allocates annual flow quantiles (Q90 and Q50) depending on the flow season. The results showed that, on average, 37% of annual discharge was required to sustain environmental flow requirement. More water is needed for environmental flows during low-flow periods (46–71% of average low-flows) compared to high-flow periods (17–45% of average high-flows). Environmental flow requirements estimates from the Tennant, Q90_Q50, and Smakhtin methods were higher than the locally calculated EFRs for river systems with relatively stable flows and were lower than the locally calculated EFRs for rivers with variable flows. The VMF and Tessmann methods showed the highest correlation with the locally calculated EFRs (R2=0.91). The main difference between the Tessmann and VMF methods is that the Tessmann method allocates all water to EFRs in low-flow periods while the VMF method allocates 60% of the flow in low-flow periods. Thus, other water sectors such as irrigation can withdraw up to 40% of the flow during the low-flow season and freshwater ecosystems can still be kept in reasonable ecological condition. The global applicability of the five methods was tested using the global vegetation and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land (LPJmL) hydrological model. The calculated global annual EFRs for fair ecological conditions represent between 25 and 46% of mean annual flow (MAF). Variable flow regimes, such as the Nile, have lower EFRs (ranging from 12 to 48% of MAF) than stable tropical regimes such as the Amazon (which has EFRs ranging from 30 to 67% of MAF).

scholarly journals Long term prediction of flood occurrence

2016 ◽  
Vol 373 ◽  
pp. 189-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Aguilar ◽  
Alberto Montanari ◽  
María José Polo
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Physical Explanation ◽  
Po River ◽  
Flood Season

Abstract. How long a river remembers its past is still an open question. Perturbations occurring in large catchments may impact the flow regime for several weeks and months, therefore providing a physical explanation for the occasional tendency of floods to occur in clusters. The research question explored in this paper may be stated as follows: can higher than usual river discharges in the low flow season be associated to a higher probability of floods in the subsequent high flow season? The physical explanation for such association may be related to the presence of higher soil moisture storage at the beginning of the high flow season, which may induce lower infiltration rates and therefore higher river runoff. Another possible explanation is persistence of climate, due to presence of long-term properties in atmospheric circulation. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro, whose catchment area amounts to 71 000 km2. We look at the stochastic connection between average river flows in the pre-flood season and the peak flows in the flood season by using a bivariate probability distribution. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is significantly impacted by the river flow regime in the low flow season. The proposed technique, which can be classified as a data assimilation approach, may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the flood probability.

scholarly journals Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 3027-3041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long Phi Hoang ◽  
Hannu Lauri ◽  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Jorma Koponen ◽  
Michelle T. H. van Vliet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Flow ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Hydrological Impact

Abstract. Climate change poses critical threats to water-related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climate-change-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management.

scholarly journals Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 2085-2101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juraj Parajka ◽  
Alfred Paul Blaschke ◽  
Günter Blöschl ◽  
Klaus Haslinger ◽  
Gerold Hepp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Objective Function ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Low Flows

Abstract. The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976–1986, 1987–1997, 1998–2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q95 low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated Q95 in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated Q95 may result in a range of up to 60 % depending on the decade used for calibration. The low-flow projections of Q95 show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10–30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range −5 to −20 % for the climate change projected for the future period 2021–2050, relative the reference period 1978–2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of Q95 projections is the largest in basins with a winter low-flow regime and, in some basins the range of Q95 projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75 % to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed.

scholarly journals Uncertainty contributions to low flow projections in Austria

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 12395-12431 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Parajka ◽  
A. P. Blaschke ◽  
G. Blöschl ◽  
K. Haslinger ◽  
G. Hepp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flow Regime ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Climate Projection ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Calibration Uncertainty

Abstract. The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterizations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976–1986, 1987–1997, 1998–2008), which allows disentangling the effect of modeling uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. The results indicate that the seasonality of the low flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q95 low flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the calibration uncertainty in terms of Q95 is larger in basins with summer low flow regime than in basins with winter low flow regime. Using different calibration periods may result in a range of up to 60 % in simulated Q95 low flows. The low flow projections show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10–30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range −5 to −20 % for the period 2021–2050 relative the reference period 1976–2008. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the Northern Alps and later low flows in Eastern Austria. In 85 % of the basins, the uncertainty in Q95 from model calibration is larger than the uncertainty from different climate scenarios. The total uncertainty of Q95 projections is the largest in basins with winter low flow regime and, in some basins, exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows and the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. While the calibration uncertainty dominates over climate projection uncertainty in terms of low flow magnitudes, the opposite is the case for low flow seasonality. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resources management are discussed.

Nationwide hydrological statistics for Sweden with high resolution using the hydrological model S-HYPE

2013 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Bergstrand ◽  
Sara-Sofia Asp ◽  
Göran Lindström
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Regulation Strategies

A first version of nationally covering hydrological statistics for Sweden based on the S-HYPE hydrological model for the period 1961–2010 is described. A key feature of the proposed method is that observed data are used as input wherever such data are available, and the model is used for interpolation in between stations. Short observation records are automatically extended by the use of the model. High flow statistics typically differed by about ±10% from observations. The corresponding number for low flow was about ±30%. High flow peaks were usually simulated slightly too low whereas low flows were too high. In a relative sense low flows were more uncertain than high flows. The mean flow was relatively certain. The annual maximum values were fitted to a Gumbel distribution, by the method of moments, for each subbasin. Flood statistics were then calculated up to a return period of 50 years. According to a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, less than 1% of the fitted distributions were rejected. Most rejections occurred in regulated systems, due to difficulties in simulating regulation strategies, but also due to uncertainties in the precipitation input in the mountainous region. Results at small scale are very uncertain. The proposed method is a cost-effective way of calculating hydrological statistics with high spatial resolution.

scholarly journals Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 11651-11687 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. P. Hoang ◽  
H. Lauri ◽  
M. Kummu ◽  
J. Koponen ◽  
M. T. H. van Vliet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Hydrological Impact

Abstract. Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the most recent CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high flow and low flow conditions). Similar to earlier CMIP3-based assessments, the hydrological cycle also intensifies in the CMIP5 climate change scenarios. The scenarios ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. We further found that extremely high flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risk in the basin. The implications of climate change induced hydrological changes are critical and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and disaster-risk reduction.

Environmental Flow Components for Measuring Hydrologic Model Fit during Low Flow Events

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 1325-1332 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Mobley ◽  
Teresa B. Culver ◽  
Robert W. Burgholzer
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Flow Components
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