scholarly journals Effect of Seasonality on the Quantiles Estimation of Maximum Floodwater Levels in a Reservoir and Maximum Outflows

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 519
Author(s):  
José Aranda ◽  
R. García-Bartual
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Stochastic Approach ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Initial Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Main River ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Hydrological System ◽  
Operation Results

Certain relevant variables for dam safety and downstream safety assessments are analyzed using a stochastic approach. In particular, a method to estimate quantiles of maximum outflow in a dam spillway and maximum water level reached in the reservoir during a flood event is presented. The hydrological system analyzed herein is a small mountain catchment in north Spain, whose main river is a tributary of Ebro river. The ancient Foradada dam is located in this catchment. This dam has no gates, so that flood routing operation results from simple consideration of fixed crest spillway hydraulics. In such case, both mentioned variables (maximum outflow and maximum reservoir water level) are basically derived variables that depend on flood hydrograph characteristics and the reservoir’s initial water level. A Monte Carlo approach is performed to generate very large samples of synthetic hydrographs and previous reservoir levels. The use of extreme value copulas allows the ensembles to preserve statistical properties of historical samples and the observed empirical correlations. Apart from the classical approach based on annual periods, the modelling strategy is also applied differentiating two subperiods or seasons (i.e., summer and winter). This allows to quantify the return period distortion introduced when seasonality is ignored in the statistical analysis of the two relevant variables selected for hydrological risk assessment. Results indicate significant deviations for return periods over 125 years. For the analyzed case study, ignoring seasonal statistics and trends, yields to maximum outflows underestimation of 18% for T = 500 years and 29% for T = 1000 years were obtained.

scholarly journals STUDY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF WONOGIRI RESERVOIR AS FLOOD CONTROL STRUCTURE

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Alexander Armin Nugroho
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Control Function ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Control Limit ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Flood Hydrograph ◽  
Reservoir Inflow

The Wonogiri reservoir was built with a primary function as flood control, especially in areas prone to flooding along the Bengawan Solo River. To find out the performance of the Wonogiri reservoir in flood control of Bengawan Solo, a study was conducted on flood hydrograph characteristics of the reservoir inflow by considering the contribution inflow from all sub-watersheds in the reservoir catchment area, at the end of December 2007. Calculation analysis flood hydrograph of Wonogiri Reservoir inflow is done with the calibration of Wuryantoro and Keduang sub-watersheds. Results of the calibration were then used reference to simulate flood hydrograph inflow in each sub-watershed catchment areas. Flood routing in the reservoir was done with the assumption that the inflow of the reservoir was left to face up a height of water in the reservoir 135.3 m (the lower flood control limit) and 138.3 m (the upper flood control limit) and then the spillway gates full-opening. Results of this research indicated that the maximum discharge inflow into the reservoir on the event of Wonogiri flood at the end of December 2007 was ranged from 3,331 to 4,993 m3/s; and it was occurred on December 26, 2007 at between 04:00 - 06:00 am. The most dominant flood hydrograph contribution into the reservoir was derived from Keduang sub-watershed. The flood in the reservoir was simulated as that the spillway gates were closed until water level of reservoir reached the minimum height of 135.3 m and 138.3 m and only until then the spillway gates full-opening. The reservoir water level reached 135.47 m on December 26, 2007 at 6:00 am and outflow was generated when the gates opened to reach 550 m3/s and then increased up to 642 m3/s at 14:00 after then it gradually decreases. The water level simulation was unable to reach 138.3 m because up to December 27, 2007 at 23:00 the water level reservoir reaches only 136.44 m. The Wonogiri reservoir flood control function still can run well and able to reduce the peak flood of 85%.

scholarly journals The Monitoring-Based Analysis on Deformation-Controlling Factors and Slope Stability of Reservoir Landslide: Hongyanzi Landslide in the Southwest of China

Geofluids ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Han ◽  
Bin Tong ◽  
Jinkai Yan ◽  
Chunrong Yin ◽  
Liang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Monitoring Program ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Controlling Factors ◽  
Seepage Water ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Reservoir Area ◽  
Reservoir Landslide

Reservoir landslide is a type of commonly seen geological hazards in reservoir area and could potentially cause significant risk to the routine operation of reservoir and hydropower station. It has been accepted that reservoir landslides are mainly induced by periodic variations of reservoir water level during the impoundment and drawdown process. In this study, to better understand the deformation characters and controlling factors of the reservoir landslide, a multiparameter-based monitoring program was conducted on a reservoir landslide—the Hongyanzi landslide located in Pubugou reservoir area in the southwest of China. The results indicated that significant deformation occurred to the landslide during the drawdown period; otherwise, the landslide remained stable. The major reason of reservoir landslide deformation is the generation of seepage water pressure caused by the rapidly growing water level difference inside and outside of the slope. The influences of precipitation and earthquake on the slope deformation of the Hongyanzi landslide were insignificant.

scholarly journals Application of Neural Network Models and ANFIS for Water Level Forecasting of the Salve Faccha Dam in the Andean Zone in Northern Ecuador

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2011
Author(s):  
Pablo Páliz Larrea ◽  
Xavier Zapata Ríos ◽  
Lenin Campozano Parra
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Subtractive Clustering ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Maximum Delay

Despite the importance of dams for water distribution of various uses, adequate forecasting on a day-to-day scale is still in great need of intensive study worldwide. Machine learning models have had a wide application in water resource studies and have shown satisfactory results, including the time series forecasting of water levels and dam flows. In this study, neural network models (NN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) models were generated to forecast the water level of the Salve Faccha reservoir, which supplies water to Quito, the Capital of Ecuador. For NN, a non-linear input–output net with a maximum delay of 13 days was used with variation in the number of nodes and hidden layers. For ANFIS, after up to four days of delay, the subtractive clustering algorithm was used with a hyperparameter variation from 0.5 to 0.8. The results indicate that precipitation was not influencing input in the prediction of the reservoir water level. The best neural network and ANFIS models showed high performance, with a r > 0.95, a Nash index > 0.95, and a RMSE < 0.1. The best the neural network model was t + 4, and the best ANFIS model was model t + 6.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Landslide Displacement Rate Prediction Based on Multi-Factor Support Vector Regression Machine

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1381
Author(s):  
Xiuzhen Li ◽  
Shengwei Li
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Displacement Rate ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Three Factor

Forecasting the development of large-scale landslides is a contentious and complicated issue. In this study, we put forward the use of multi-factor support vector regression machines (SVRMs) for predicting the displacement rate of a large-scale landslide. The relative relationships between the main monitoring factors were analyzed based on the long-term monitoring data of the landslide and the grey correlation analysis theory. We found that the average correlation between landslide displacement and rainfall is 0.894, and the correlation between landslide displacement and reservoir water level is 0.338. Finally, based on an in-depth analysis of the basic characteristics, influencing factors, and development of landslides, three main factors (i.e., the displacement rate, reservoir water level, and rainfall) were selected to build single-factor, two-factor, and three-factor SVRM models. The key parameters of the models were determined using a grid-search method, and the models showed high accuracies. Moreover, the accuracy of the two-factor SVRM model (displacement rate and rainfall) is the highest with the smallest standard error (RMSE) of 0.00614; it is followed by the three-factor and single-factor SVRM models, the latter of which has the lowest prediction accuracy, with the largest RMSE of 0.01644.

Seasonal succession and long-term stability of pelagic community in a productive reservoir

2005 ◽  
Vol 56 (8) ◽  
pp. 1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. F. Matveev ◽  
L. K. Matveeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Seasonal Succession ◽  
Perca Fluviatilis ◽  
Taxonomic Composition ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Introduced Fish ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Murray River

In Lake Hume, a reservoir located in an active agricultural zone of the Murray River catchment, Australia, time series for the abundances of phytoplankton and zooplankton taxa, monitored from 1991 through to 1996, were stationary (without trends), and plankton taxonomic composition did not change. This indicated ecosystem resilience to strong fluctuations in reservoir water level, and to other potential agricultural impacts, for example eutrophication and pollution. Although biological stressors such as introduced fish and invertebrate predators are known to affect planktonic communities and reduce biodiversity in lakes, high densities of planktivorous stages of alien European perch (Perca fluviatilis) and the presence of carp (Cyprinus carpio) did not translate into non-stationary time series or declining trends for plankton in Lake Hume. However, the seasonal successions observed in the reservoir in different years did not conform well to the Plankton Ecology Group (PEG) model. Significant deviations of the Lake Hume successional pattern from the PEG model included maxima for phytoplankton abundance being in winter and the presence of a clear water phase without large zooplankton grazers. The instability of the water level in Lake Hume probably causes the dynamics of most planktonic populations to be less predictable, but did not initiate the declining trends that have been observed in some other Australian reservoirs. Both the PEG model and the present study suggest that hydrology is one of the major drivers of seasonal succession.

scholarly journals Reservoir Flood Routing Simulation for Dam Safety Management in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 596-606
Author(s):  
Rangsarit Vanijjirattikhan ◽  
Chinoros Thongthamchart ◽  
Patsorn Rakcheep ◽  
Unpong Supakchukul ◽  
Jittiwut Suwatthikul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Safety Management ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Dam Construction ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Remote Monitoring System ◽  
Operation Rules ◽  
Gate Opening

A reservoir flood routing simulation software with spillway operation rules that are readable and configurable by the spillway operator is developed in this study. The software is part of the Dam Safety Remote Monitoring System used by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. The flood routing simulation is implemented using a storage-indication routing method, which is a hydrologic method. The spillway operation rules are exhibited in a tree-based structure, in which the spillway gate opening is derived from the current reservoir water level (RWL), spillway gate opening, and flood situation if the peak inflow has passed. The simulation results show that the simulated RWL is similar to the RWL data in the dam construction manual. This verifies the accuracy of the reservoir flood routing simulation, which is useful for planning the spillway operation.

Dam Safety Reliability Analysis Based on Artificial Neural Network

2011 ◽  
Vol 255-260 ◽  
pp. 3620-3625
Author(s):  
Hai Wei ◽  
Hua Shu Yang ◽  
Liang Wu ◽  
Yue Gui
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Mathematic Model ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Reservoir Water Level ◽  
Artificial Neural

There are many factors, such as climate, flood, material, geology, structure, management, to influence dam safety. So dam safety evaluation, involving many fields, is very complicated, and very difficult to establish mathematic model for assessment. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has many obvious advantages to deal with these problems influenced by multi-factor, consequently is widely used in engineering fields. This paper considered water level, temperature, main factors influencing dam deformation, as random variables, employed ANN and statistical model to establish performance function of dam hidden trouble deformation and abnormal deformation. Then reliability theory was used to analyze dam safety reliability and sensitivity. The results show that temperature has great effect on probability of dam hidden trouble deformation and abnormal deformation than reservoir water level, due to great variability of temperature. Change of Reliability index of dam is contrary to reservoir water level. Temperature, especially average temperature in 10 days and 5 days, has great effect on sensitivity of reliability index than water level.

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