scholarly journals Assessment of Regional and Historical Climate Records for a Water Budget Approach in Eastern Colombia

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Oscar Molina ◽  
Christian Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Correlation Procedure ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Regions located on the eastern side of Colombia are vulnerable to climate change due to the high diversity of fauna and flora located there, the potentially direct impact on agricultural activities, as well as the pressure on water resources. Limited research and work have been conducted to accurately create a description of the climate of these specific regions. The characteristics of the available records, which is valuable information, together with complementary data can be used to simulate the impacts of climate change and the effects it has on the water cycle. A description of the climate for the eastern region of Colombia was made and historical daily records from 669 hydrometeorological stations were considered in order to analyze the robustness and spatial distribution of the data. According to the available data, four of the water districts that compose the eastern region of the country were selected to show both a representative analysis of the climate variability and a consistency analysis using a cross-correlation procedure. A high percentage of missing values was found in the available records; however, with regards to the climatological analysis for the period from 1980 to 2015, 40% of missing values or less seems to be a good threshold for the datasets to be used. Temperature records show monthly small variations and a decreasing average rate from lower to higher elevations, i.e., 5 °C every 1000 m. Precipitation shows different patterns according to the region with monomodal and bimodal patterns. Correlations between datasets of the same region are positive and a significant correlation is obtained with temperature for stations at similar elevations or those located close to each other, and low correlations of precipitation are found. These data records are considered a good source of input data which could be used to perform further analysis such as a climate downscaling procedure, as well as a potential water budget approach for the four studied regions.

scholarly journals Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios*

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 665-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Imbach ◽  
Luis Molina ◽  
Bruno Locatelli ◽  
Olivier Roupsard ◽  
Gil Mahé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use Efficiency ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Soil System ◽  
Potential Vegetation ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract The likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in Mesoamerica is evaluated. Mesoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. The biogeographic soil–vegetation–atmosphere model Mapped Atmosphere Plant Soil System (MAPSS) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index (LAI), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models (GCMs). LAI is likely to decrease over 77%–89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. Accounting for potential effects of CO2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on LAI. Runoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. Higher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. Although the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty.

scholarly journals A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1575-1589 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. L. Roderick ◽  
F. Sun ◽  
W. H. Lim ◽  
G. D. Farquhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Energy Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Local Grid ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate models project increases in globally averaged atmospheric specific humidity that are close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) value of around 7% K−1 whilst projections for mean annual global precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) are somewhat muted at around 2% K−1. Such global projections are useful summaries but do not provide guidance at local (grid box) scales where impacts occur. To bridge that gap in spatial scale, previous research has shown that the "wet get wetter and dry get drier" relation, Δ(P − E) ∝ P − E, follows CC scaling when the projected changes are averaged over latitudinal zones. Much of the research on projected climate impacts has been based on an implicit assumption that this CC relation also holds at local (grid box) scales but this has not previously been examined. In this paper we find that the simple latitudinal average CC scaling relation does not hold at local (grid box) scales over either ocean or land. This means that in terms of P − E, the climate models do not project that the "wet get wetter and dry get drier" at the local scales that are relevant for agricultural, ecological and hydrologic impacts. In an attempt to develop a simple framework for local-scale analysis we found that the climate model output shows a remarkably close relation to the long-standing Budyko framework of catchment hydrology. We subsequently use the Budyko curve and find that the local-scale changes in P − E projected by climate models are dominated by changes in P while the changes in net irradiance at the surface due to greenhouse forcing are small and only play a minor role in changing the mean annual P − E in the climate model projections. To further understand the apparently small changes in net irradiance we also examine projections of key surface energy balance terms. In terms of global averages, we find that the climate model projections are dominated by changes in only three terms of the surface energy balance: (1) an increase in the incoming long-wave irradiance, and the respective responses (2) in outgoing long-wave irradiance and (3) in the evaporative flux, with the latter change being much smaller than the former two terms and mostly restricted to the oceans. The small fraction of the realised surface forcing that is partitioned into E explains why the hydrologic sensitivity (2% K−1) is so much smaller than CC scaling (7% K−1). Much public and scientific perception about changes in the water cycle has been based on the notion that temperature enhances E. That notion is partly true but has proved an unfortunate starting point because it has led to misleading conclusions about the impacts of climate change on the water cycle. A better general understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on water availability that are projected by climate models will surely be gained by starting with the notion that the greater the enhancement of E, the less the surface temperature increase (and vice versa). That latter notion is based on the conservation of energy and is an underlying basis of climate model projections.

scholarly journals A hydrological early warning system for Denmark based on the national model

1969 ◽  
pp. 29-32
Author(s):  
Hans Jørgen Henriksen ◽  
Simon Stisen ◽  
Xin He ◽  
Marianne B. Wiese
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Plant Soil ◽  
National Model ◽  
Hydrological Variables ◽  
Quantitative Assessments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The rapidly increasing impacts of climate change are likely to require changes in relevant institutions (IPCC 2012). An example is the growing need for immediate information on the entire water cycle (Fig. 1), with quantitative assessments of critical hydrological variables and fl ow interactions between diff erent domains, e.g. atmosphere, plant-soil, surface water, groundwater and the sea, as they take place.

scholarly journals Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon

2014 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 810-820 ◽  
Author(s):  
DF Barros ◽  
ALM Albernaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Ecosystems ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Long Period ◽  
Erosion Processes ◽  
Floodplain Ecosystems ◽  
Species Composition And Distribution ◽  
Amazonian Wetlands ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Wetlands cover approximately 6% of the Earth's surface. They are frequently found at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and are strongly dependent on the water cycle. For this reason, wetlands are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Mangroves and floodplain ecosystems are some of the most important environments for the Amazonian population, as a source of proteins and income, and are thus the types of wetlands chosen for this review. Some of the main consequences that can be predicted from climate change for wetlands are modifications in hydrological regimes, which can cause intense droughts or inundations. A possible reduction in rainfall can cause a decrease of the areas of mangroves and floodplains, with a consequent decline in their species numbers. Conversely, an increase in rainfall would probably cause the substitution of plant species, which would not be able to survive under new conditions for a long period. An elevation in water temperature on the floodplains would cause an increase in frequency and duration of hypoxic or anoxic episodes, which might further lead to a reduction in growth rates or the reproductive success of many species. In mangroves, an increase in water temperature would influence the sea level, causing losses of these environments through coastal erosion processes. Therefore, climate change will likely cause the loss of, or reduction in, Amazonian wetlands and will challenge the adaptability of species, composition and distribution, which will probably have consequences for the human population that depend on them.

scholarly journals The impacts of climate change on the winter water cycle of the western Himalaya

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2287-2307
Author(s):  
Kieran M. R. Hunt ◽  
Andrew G. Turner ◽  
Len C. Shaffrey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The economywide impacts of climate change on Philippine agriculture

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Impacts of Climate Change on Length of Growing Period

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change
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