scholarly journals Asymmetric Response of Land Storage to ENSO Phase and Duration

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hrishikesh A. Chandanpurkar ◽  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
John T. Reager ◽  
Robert S. Nerem ◽  
James S. Famiglietti
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Natural Climate

Emergence of global mean sea level (GMSL) from a ‘hiatus’ following a persistent La Niña highlights the need to understand the causes of interannual variability in GMSL. Several studies link interannual variability in GMSL to anomalous transport of water mass between land and ocean—and subsequent changes in water storage in these reservoirs—primarily driven by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite this, asymmetries in teleconnections between ENSO mode and land water storage have received less attention. We use historical simulations of natural climate variability to characterize asymmetries in the hydrological response to ENSO based on phase and duration. Findings indicate pronounced phase-specific and duration-specific asymmetries covering up to 93 and 50 million km2 land area, respectively. The asymmetries are seasonally dependent, and based on the mean regional climate are capable of influencing inherently bounded storage by pushing the storage-precipitation relationship towards nonlinearity. The nonlinearities are more pronounced in dry regions in the dry season, wet regions in the wet season, and during Year 2 of persistent ENSO events, limiting the magnitude of associated anomalies under persistent ENSO influence. The findings have implications for a range of stakeholders, including sea level researchers and water managers.

The rate and acceleration of the global mean sea level revisited

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorena Moreira ◽  
Anny Cazenave ◽  
Denise Cáceres ◽  
Hindumathi Palanisamy ◽  
Habib Dieng
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Land Water ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Since nearly 3 decades, high-precision satellite altimetry allows us to precisely measure the mean sea level evolution at global and regional scales. In terms of global mean, sea level is rising at a mean rate of 3.2 mm/yr. The altimetry record is also suggesting that the global mean sea level rise is accelerating. However, the exact value of the acceleration and even its mere existence are still debated. Determination of the global warming-related sea level rate and acceleration are somewhat hindered by the interannual signal caused by natural climate variability. During the recent years, several studies have shown that at interannual time scale, the global mean sea level is mostly due to ENSO-driven land water storage variations. But thermal expansion fluctuations may also contribute. Thus, to isolate the global warming signal in the global mean sea level, we need to remove the ENSO-related interannual variability. For that purpose we use the Water Gap Global Hydrological model developed by the University of Frankfurt for land water storage as well as GRACE space gravimetry data on land and empirical models based on ENSO indices. We also extract the ENSO-related signal in thermal expansion. After removing the total interannual variability signal due to both mass and steric components, we compute the evolution with time of the ‘residual’ rate of sea level rise over successive 5-year moving windows, as well as the associated acceleration. Using time series of thermal expansion and ice sheet mass balances, we also estimate the respective contributions of each component to the global mean sea level acceleration.</p>

scholarly journals Origin of interannual variability in global mean sea level

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (25) ◽  
pp. 13983-13990
Author(s):  
Benjamin D. Hamlington ◽  
Christopher G. Piecuch ◽  
John T. Reager ◽  
Hrishi Chandanpurkar ◽  
Thomas Frederikse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Scaling Analysis ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

The two dominant drivers of the global mean sea level (GMSL) variability at interannual timescales are steric changes due to changes in ocean heat content and barystatic changes due to the exchange of water mass between land and ocean. With Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and Argo profiling floats, it has been possible to measure the relative steric and barystatic contributions to GMSL since 2004. While efforts to “close the GMSL budget” with satellite altimetry and other observing systems have been largely successful with regards to trends, the short time period covered by these records prohibits a full understanding of the drivers of interannual to decadal variability in GMSL. One particular area of focus is the link between variations in the El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and GMSL. Recent literature disagrees on the relative importance of steric and barystatic contributions to interannual to decadal variability in GMSL. Here, we use a multivariate data analysis technique to estimate variability in barystatic and steric contributions to GMSL back to 1982. These independent estimates explain most of the observed interannual variability in satellite altimeter-measured GMSL. Both processes, which are highly correlated with ENSO variations, contribute about equally to observed interannual GMSL variability. A theoretical scaling analysis corroborates the observational results. The improved understanding of the origins of interannual variability in GMSL has important implications for our understanding of long-term trends in sea level, the hydrological cycle, and the planet’s radiation imbalance.

scholarly journals Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (22) ◽  
pp. 8935-8948 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Cagnazzo ◽  
E. Manzini ◽  
N. Calvo ◽  
A. Douglass ◽  
H. Akiyoshi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Column Ozone

Abstract. The connection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. The anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of column ozone north of 70° N that is accompanied by coherent column ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA column ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability and it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.

scholarly journals Monthly balance and water discharge of an inter-tropical glacier: Zongo Glacier, Cordillera Real, Bolivia, 16° S

1995 ◽  
Vol 41 (137) ◽  
pp. 61-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Francou ◽  
Pierre Ribstein ◽  
Ronald Saravia ◽  
Eric Tiriau
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Relevant Variable ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Discharge Temperature

AbstractMeasurements of mass balance were performed every month on Zongo Glacier. Bolivia. Simultaneously, water-discharge, temperature and precipitation data were obtained. The first year of the survey, 1991–92. was marked by an ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event with high temperature and low precipitation, whilst the following year, 1992–93, was normal. Results point to the early and late wet season (October-December and March–May: as playing a critical role in the determination of the annual mass balance. The wet season is the warmest period of the year and consequently the duration of the wet season is a highly relevant variable in determining mass balance. Both glaciological and hydrological methods for the determination of the mass balance provide similar results. Our study confirms dial ENSO events have a major influence on the rapid glacier retreat currently affecting this part of the Andes.

scholarly journals Inter ENSO variability and its influence over the South American monsoon system

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 167-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. M. Drumond ◽  
T. Ambrizzi
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Phase Changes ◽  
The South ◽  
Enso Variability ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract. Previous studies have discussed the interannual variability of a meridional seesaw of dry and wet conditions over South America (SA) associated to the modulation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). However, they did not explore if the variability inter ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) can be related to the phase changes of this dipole. To answer this question, an observational work was carried out to explore the atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions related to the same ENSO signal and to opposite dipole phases. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis was applied over normalized Chen precipitation seasonal anomalies in order to find the dipole mode in the Austral Summer (December to February). The fourth rotated mode, explaining 6.6% of the total variance, consists of positive loading over the SACZ region and negative loading over northern Argentina. Extreme events were selected and enhanced activity of SACZ during the Summer season (SACZ+) was identified in nine years: five during La Niña events (LN) and two in El Niño episodes (EN). On the other hand, inhibited manifestations of this system (SACZ-) were identified in seven years: four in EN and two during LN. Power spectrum analysis indicated that the interannual variability of the precipitation dipole seems to be related to the low frequency and to the quasi-biennial part of ENSO variability. The ENSO events with the same signal can present opposite phases for the dipole. The results suggest that the displacement of the convection over Indonesia and western Pacific can play an important role to modulate the seesaw pattern.

scholarly journals Comparing precipitation and temperature trends between inland and coastal locations

2019 ◽  
Vol 60 ◽  
pp. C109-C126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Hartigan ◽  
Shev MacNamara ◽  
Lance M Leslie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
P Value ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Mean

Motivated by the Millennium Drought and the current drought over much of southern and eastern Australia, this detailed statistical study compares trends in annual wet season precipitation and temperature between a coastal site (Newcastle) and an inland site (Scone). Bootstrap permutation tests reveal Scone precipitation has decreased significantly over the past 40 years (p-value=0.070) whereas Newcastle has recorded little to no change (p-value=0.800). Mean maximum and minimum temperatures for Newcastle have increased over the past 40 years (p-values of 0.002 and 0.015, respectively) while the mean maximum temperature for Scone has increased (p-value = 0.058) and the mean minimum temperature has remained stable. This suggests mean temperatures during the wet season for both locations are increasing. Considering these trends along with those for precipitation, water resources in the Hunter region will be increasingly strained as a result of increased evaporation with either similar or less precipitation falling in the region. Wavelet analysis reveals that both sites have similar power spectra for precipitation and mean maximum temperature with a statistically significant signal in the two to seven year period, typically indicative of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation climate driver. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation also drives the Newcastle mean minimum temperature, whereas the Scone power spectra has no indication of a definitive driver for mean minimum temperature. References R. A., R. L. Kitching, F. Chiew, L. Hughes, P. C. D. Newton, S. S. Schuster, A. Tait, and P. Whetton. Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Technical report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014. URL https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/. Bureau of Meteorology. Climate Glossary-Drought. URL http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/drought.shtml. K. M. Lau and H. Weng. Climate signal detection using wavelet transform: How to make a time series sing. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 76:23912402, 1995. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1995)0762391:CSDUWT>2.0.CO;2. M. B. Richman and L. M. Leslie. Uniqueness and causes of the California drought. Procedia Comput. Sci., 61:428435, 2015. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2015.09.181. M. B. Richman and L. M. Leslie. The 20152017 Cape Town drought: Attribution and prediction using machine learning. Procedia Comput. Sci., 140:248257, 2018. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2018.10.323.

scholarly journals Interannual Sea-Ice Variations and Sea-Ice/Atmosphere Interations in the Southern Ocean, 1973–1975

1982 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 249-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire L. Parkinson ◽  
Donald J. Cavalieri
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spatial Dependence ◽  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Yearly Cycle ◽  
Small Term ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Ice Edge

Examination of satellite-derived 1973–75 sea-ice concentrations for the Southern Ocean and comparison with 1 000 mbar temperatures and sea-level pressures reveal considerable Interannual variability in both the ice and atmospheric fields plus strong suggestions of ice/atmosphere interconnections. The mean position of the ice edge undergoes a strong yearly cycle that lags the cycle of the zonally-averaged temperatures by about one month, but the mean ice edge does not contain small-term fluctuations or interannual variability to the same extent as either the temperature or the pressure. Regionally, the ice varies much more noticeably from year-to-year, with the interannual contrasts showing strong spatial dependence in all months and strong spatial coherence in winter. These are illustrated by selected maps of monthly differences in ice concentrations between 1973 and 1974 and between 1974 and 1975. It is shown that the interannual ice differences can, in many cases, be attributed to the Interannual differences in the positioning and intensity of cyclonic and anticyclonic systems.

scholarly journals Observation-Based Estimates of Global and Basin Ocean Meridional Heat Transport Time Series

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (14) ◽  
pp. 4567-4583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Yongxin Zhang ◽  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
Lijing Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Ocean meridional heat transports (MHTs) are deduced as a residual using energy budgets to produce latitude versus time series for the globe, Indo-Pacific, and Atlantic. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation is combined with the vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence from atmospheric reanalyses to produce the net surface energy fluxes everywhere. The latter is then combined with estimates of the vertically integrated ocean heat content (OHC) tendency to produce estimates of the ocean heat divergence. Because seasonal sea ice and land runoff effects are not fully considered, the mean annual cycle is incomplete, but those effects are small for interannual variability. However, there is a mismatch between 12-month inferred surface flux and the corresponding OHC changes globally, requiring adjustments to account for the Earth’s global energy imbalance. Estimates are greatly improved by building in the constraint that MHT must go to zero at the northern and southern extents of the ocean basin at all times, enabling biases between the TOA and OHC data to be reconciled. Zonal mean global, Indo-Pacific, and Atlantic basin ocean MHTs are computed and presented as 12-month running means and for the mean annual cycle for 2000–16. For the Indo-Pacific, the tropical and subtropical MHTs feature a strong relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and in the Atlantic, MHT interannual variability is significantly affected by and likely influences the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, Atlantic and Pacific changes are linked, suggesting that the northern annular mode (as opposed to NAO) is predominant. There is also evidence of decadal variability or trends.

scholarly journals The Baja California Peninsula, a Significant Source of Dust in Northwest Mexico

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Morales-Acuña ◽  
Carlos Torres ◽  
Francisco Delgadillo-Hinojosa ◽  
Jean Linero-Cueto ◽  
Eduardo Santamaría-del-Ángel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Baja California ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Baja California Peninsula ◽  
Significant Source ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Desert Regions

Despite their impacts on ecosystems, climate, and human health, atmospheric emissions of mineral dust from deserts have been scarcely studied. This work estimated dust emission flux (E) between 1979 and 2014 from two desert regions in the Baja California Peninsula (BCP) using a modified dust parameterization scheme. Subsequently, we evaluated the processes controlling the variability of E at intra- and interannual scales. During the period 1979–2014 peak E were generally recorded in summer (San Felipe) and spring (Vizcaino), and the lowest emissions occurred in autumn (San Felipe) and winter (Vizcaíno). Intra- and interannual variability in E was associated with fluctuations in wind speed and direction, precipitation, and soil moisture, which, in turn, were controlled by the seasonal displacement of the North Pacific high-pressure center. Key drivers of the interannual variability of E are strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. These climatic events and the hydrometeorological variables mentioned above played a major role in the onset and occurrence of dust events, with the highest annual emissions at Vizcaíno. Besides, a lag of 19 months (San Felipe) and 21 months (Vizcaino) was recorded between the occurrence of relevant E and ENSO events, apparently in response to the effect of this climatic event on precipitation. The climate variability of E in both desert regions was evidenced by the positive trends associated with increases in wind speed and air temperature, and with decreases in precipitation and soil moisture. Finally, our findings suggest that the BCP should be considered as a significant source of dust for the regional inventory of particulate matter emissions from the Earth’s surface.

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