scholarly journals Long-Term Perspective Changes in Crop Irrigation Requirement Caused by Climate and Agriculture Land Use Changes in Rechna Doab, Pakistan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arfan Arshad ◽  
Zhijie Zhang ◽  
Wanchang Zhang ◽  
Ishfaq Gujree
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Irrigation Requirement ◽  
Cropping Patterns ◽  
Agriculture Land ◽  
The Future ◽  
Sown Area ◽  
Crop Irrigation

Climate change and agriculture land use changes in the form of cropping patterns are closely linked with crop water use. In this study the SDSM (statistical downscaling model) was used to downscale and simulate changes in meteorological parameters from 1961 to 2099 using HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) data under two selected scenarios i.e., H3A2 and H3B2. Results indicated that Tmax, Tmin, and wind speed may increase while relative humidity and precipitation may decrease in the future under both H3A2 and H3B2 scenarios. Downscaled meteorological parameters were used as input in the CROPWAT model to simulate crop irrigation requirement (CIR) in the baseline (1961–1990) and the future (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Data related to agriculture crop sown area of five major crops were collected from Punjab statistical reports for the period of 1981–2015 and forecasted using linear exponential smoothing based on the historical rate. Results indicated that the cropping patterns in the study area will vary with time and proportion of area of which sugarcane, wheat, and rice, may exhibit increasing trend, while decreasing trend with respect to the baseline scenario was found in maize and cotton. Crop sown area is then multiplied with CIR of individual crops derived from CROPWAT to simulate Net-CIR (m3) in three sub-scenarios S1, S2, and S3. Under the H3A2 scenario, total CIR in S1, S2, and S3 may increase by 3.26 BCM, 12.13 BCM, and 17.20 BCM in the 2080s compared to the baseline, while under the H3B2 scenario, Net-CIR in S1, S2, and S3 may increase by 2.98 BCM, 12.04 BCM, and 16.62 BCM in the 2080s with respect to the baseline. It was observed that under the S2 sub-scenario (with changing agriculture land-use), total CIR may increase by 12.13 BCM (H3A2) and 12.04 BCM (H3B2) in the 2080s with respect to the baseline (1961–1990) which is greater as compared to S1 (with changing climate). This study might be valuable in describing the negative effects of climate and agriculture land use changes on annual crop water supply in Rechna Doab.

scholarly journals Land-Use and Land Cover Changes on the Slopes of Mount Meru-Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-352
Author(s):  
ALDO. J. KITALIKA ◽  
REVOCATUS. L. MACHUNDA ◽  
HANS. C. KOMAKECH ◽  
KAROLI. N. NJAU
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Mixed Forest ◽  
Spatial Filter ◽  
Software Environment ◽  
Agriculture Land ◽  
The Future ◽  
Environmental Transitions

The study of spatial land use and land change is inevitable for sustainable development of land use plans. Environmental transitions analysis was done in part of the land on the slopes of the foothills of Mount Meru in thirty (30) years’ time from 1986 to 2016 using satellite-derived land use/cover maps and a Cellular Automata (CA) spatial filter under IDRISI software environment and assessed the important land use changes. Also, the future land use for 2026 which is the next ten (10) years was simulated based on Cellular-Automata Markov model. The results showed significant land use transitions whereby there is a huge land use change of bush land (BL) and agriculture land (AG) into human settlement (ST) which resulted into conversion of Arusha town into a City. In addition, the changes have caused slight changes in water bodies into mixed forest. Moreover, the future land use/land cover (LULC) simulations indicated that there will be unsustainable LULC changes in the next ten years since most of bush land and part of agriculture land will be used for building different structures thus interfering with fresh water and food availability in the City. These changes call upon the relevant planning authorities to put in place the best strategies for good urban development.

scholarly journals Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 938
Author(s):  
Luoman Pu ◽  
Jiuchun Yang ◽  
Lingxue Yu ◽  
Changsheng Xiong ◽  
Fengqin Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Sanjiang Plain ◽  
Potential Production ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
The Sanjiang Plain ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
The Future

Crop potential yields in cropland are the essential reflection of the utilization of cropland resources. The changes of the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of cropland will directly affect the crop potential yields, so it is very crucial to simulate future cropland distribution and predict crop potential yields to ensure the future food security. In the present study, the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was employed to simulate land-use changes in Northeast China during 2015–2050. Then, the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was used to predict maize potential yields in Northeast China in 2050, and the spatio-temporal changes of maize potential yields during 2015–2050 were explored. The results were the following. (1) The woodland and grassland decreased by 5.13 million ha and 1.74 million ha respectively in Northeast China from 2015 to 2050, which were mainly converted into unused land. Most of the dryland was converted to paddy field and built-up land. (2) In 2050, the total maize potential production and average potential yield in Northeast China were 218.09 million tonnes and 6880.59 kg/ha. Thirteen prefecture-level cities had maize potential production of more than 7 million tonnes, and 11 cities had maize potential yields of more than 8000 kg/ha. (3) During 2015–2050, the total maize potential production and average yield decreased by around 23 million tonnes and 700 kg/ha in Northeast China, respectively. (4) The maize potential production increased in 15 cities located in the plain areas over the 35 years. The potential yields increased in only nine cities, which were mainly located in the Sanjiang Plain and the southeastern regions. The results highlight the importance of coping with the future land-use changes actively, maintaining the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, improving the cropland quality, and ensuring food security in Northeast China.

Agriculture land use changes and the dynamics of climate system: A sustainable approach

2007 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 1061-1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahesh Singh ◽  
Maria Fekete-Farkas ◽  
István Szücs
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Agriculture Land ◽  
System A

Mutual analyses of agriculture land use and transportation networks: The future location of soybean and corn production in Brazil.

2021 ◽  
Vol 194 ◽  
pp. 103264
Author(s):  
José Eduardo Holler Branco ◽  
Daniela Bacchi Bartholomeu ◽  
Paulo Nocera Alves Junior ◽  
José Vicente Caixeta Filho
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Transportation Networks ◽  
Corn Production ◽  
Agriculture Land ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Markov Intertemporal Land Use Simulation Model

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce O. Burnham
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Concerted Effort ◽  
Projection System ◽  
Cropping Patterns ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
Selection Of

The simulation model discussed in this paper evolved from problems encountered in estimating future United States cropland availability as part of the OBERS agricultural projection system. Available literature describing land use changes indicate that land resource economists have not been concerned with projecting future patterns of land use implied by historic observations.Some research has involved selection of optimum cropping patterns for agricultural cropland subject to alternative flood plain management policies. However, the broader application of such models between sectors (agriculture, industrial, urban, etc.), in the main, has been ignored. Because of “historical bias” there has not been a concerted effort to develop analytical capabilities for use in evaluating the future implications of alternative regional and/or national policies designed to alter trends in land use shifts.

scholarly journals Mapping the spatial and temporal variability of flood hazard affected by climate and land-use changes in the future

2021 ◽  
Vol 298 ◽  
pp. 113551
Author(s):  
Saeid Janizadeh ◽  
Subodh Chandra Pal ◽  
Asish Saha ◽  
Indrajit Chowdhuri ◽  
Kourosh Ahmadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Wu ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
J. Sun ◽  
P. P. Gao ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

scholarly journals Land Use Projection for Spatial Plan Consistency in Jabodetabek

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diyah Novita Kurnianti ◽  
Ernan Rustiadi ◽  
Dwi Putro Tejo Baskoro
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Buffer Zones ◽  
The Future ◽  
Land Use Control ◽  
Spatial Plan

Land use changes in Greater Jakarta area are very dynamic because of the need for settlements and converting agricultural land. It indicates land use inconsistency regard to spatial plan that can cause land damage in the future. Land use which has potential inconsistency in the future are requires for land use control in this region. This study uses spatial analysis to look at the potential inconsistencies by comparing land use projection in the future in two scenarios that is with and without control by policies. Policies in this study are land suitability and forest allocation. The result shows that land use consistency with policies raise until 97,4 % but only 93.9 % without control by policies. Areas that could potentially have inconsistency in the future are Bogor, Bekasi, Tangerang and Jakarta North City for area which is directed as forest and buffer zones of cultivation.

Cultivated floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong delta: understanding the changing balance between the flow regime and the agricultural practices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Anna Orieschnig ◽  
Gilles Belaud ◽  
Jean-Philippe Venot ◽  
Sylvain Massuel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Fruit Trees ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Water

<p>On the floodplains of the Cambodian Mekong Delta, rainfed and irrigated dry-season agriculture is a crucial source of revenue for the local population. Traditional rice production is being progressively complemented by the cultivation of higher-value crops like maize, fruit trees and vegetables. Fundamentally, the annual monsoon regime and the resulting flood dynamics determine the framework for these agricultural practices, with a wet season lasting from June to November and a peak high flow reached in September. Rice is cultivated after flood recession in lower-lying areas. On higher terrain, fruit trees and vegetables are widely irrigated by farmers using individual pumps to lift water from large-scale communal channels.</p><p><br>However, in recent years, various drivers of change have impacted these long-established dynamics. Climate change is causing shifting precipitation patterns and a modification of annual flow regimes in the Mekong river and its deltaic distributaries. In addition, the irrigation channel infrastructure is being largely rehabilitated by both local initiatives and international development agencies. These measures are rapidly changing the conveyance network for inundation, drainage, and irrigation on the floodplains, with proportions and consequences which are yet unknown. Finally, land use changes driven by market forces - such as the shift to cash crops like mango trees - are modifying the crop water demand in the area. </p><p><br>In this context, the present study aims to provide a thorough understanding and quantification of the effects of these changes with regard to crop water requirements, irrigation efficiency, and agricultural productivity. Extensive fieldwork was carried out on a 44-km² area to gather knowledge of agricultural practices (especially irrigation) and to identify the main local hydrological objects and drivers. The land use and seasonal inundation extents were characterized through remote sensing analyses, using optical Sentinel-2 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 images. On that basis, an eco-hydrological model is being developed on the generic software platform OpenFLUID, explicitly representing the hydraulic connections and irrigation decisions. This tool will be used to highlight possible salient control factors for hydrological processes, and to simulate the direct and indirect effects of climate change scenarios, irrigation and water power infrastructure development, and land use changes on local hydrology, irrigation, and agricultural productivity. </p>

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