scholarly journals Modelling Actual and Future Seawater Intrusion in the Variconi Coastal Wetland (Italy) Due to Climate and Landscape Changes

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mastrocicco ◽  
Busico ◽  
Colombani ◽  
Vigliotti ◽  
Ruberti
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Seawater Intrusion ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Coastal Lagoons ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Groundwater Overexploitation

Coastal freshwater resources are commonly under high risk of being contaminated from seawater. The main processes that affect seawater intrusion are groundwater overexploitation, land use change, and climate change effects. In this context coastal lagoons represent the more sensitive environments prone to seawater intrusion. Numerical modelling is a useful tool to understand and predict seawater intrusion. In this study, a three-dimensional SEAWAT model is employed to simulate the seawater intrusion to coastal aquifers of Variconi Oasis (Italy). The present simulation was divided into a calibration and a validation model, then the model was used to predict the salinization trend up to 2050. Results show the role of the sea in salinizing the beach front, while the retrodunal environment is characterized by transitional environments. Future seawater intrusion scenarios considering only climate data showed no significative differences in respect to the actual situation. The same happens considering also a low sea level rise prediction. On the contrary, the worst scenario (high sea level rise prediction), depicts a quite different situation, with a saline intrusion in the Variconi oasis that will severely affect the fragile transitional ecosystem. This modelling framework can be used to quantify the effects of climate changes in similar coastal environments.

Modelling nationwide climate change effects on coastal groundwater in the Netherlands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joost Delsman ◽  
Gualbert Oude Essink ◽  
Tobias Mulder ◽  
Sebastian Huizer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Saline Groundwater ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Coastal Groundwater ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
And Sea Level

<p>The coastal zone of the Netherlands is the densely populated economic heartland of the Netherlands. This low-lying area is predominantly located below current mean sea level. Groundwater in large parts of the Dutch coastal zone is saline, having infiltrated during Holocene transgressions. This saline groundwater is now slowly moving upward, driven by artificially lowered drainage levels and resulting land subsidence. Coastal groundwater in the Netherlands is vulnerable to climate change and rising sea levels, as groundwater levels rise, fresh groundwater reserves decrease, and surface water is salinized by exfiltrating saline groundwater.</p><p>We developed a high-resolution nationwide 3D fresh-salt groundwater flow and transport model to assess effects of climate change and sea level rise on groundwater salinization in the Netherlands. The fully scripted modelling workflow includes a 3D multiple indicator kriging interpolation of all available salinity measurements, that accounted for uncertainty in both measurements and interpolation. The developed model used a parallellized version of the SEAWAT model code to allow otherwise time-consuming calculations. It links to the existing national hydrological modelling framework to allow calculation of climate change effects on surface water supply and demand and agricultural damage. We used the resulting modelling framework to calculate groundwater effects of different climate change and sea level rise scenarios up to 2100.</p><p>Results show significant effects of climate change and especially sea level rise on coastal groundwater. Significant head increase (> 5% of SLR) is experienced in shallow aquifers between 2 to 10 km inland, dependent on the varying hydrogeological settings along the Dutch coast. In deeper aquifers, head increase generally propagates further, to up to 15 km inland. Through the combined effects of head increase and the inward movement of saline groundwater, salt loads to surface water increase over a significantly larger zone, extending to 25 km inward. Results signify the importance of including the long-term displacement of brackish and saline groundwater when assessing coastal groundwater effects of climate change and sea level rise.</p>

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1699-1710 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Seroussi ◽  
M. Morlighem ◽  
E. Rignot ◽  
J. Mouginot ◽  
E. Larour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Major Contributor ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Climatic Impact ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Grounding Line

Abstract. Pine Island Glacier, a major contributor to sea level rise in West Antarctica, has been undergoing significant changes over the last few decades. Here, we employ a three-dimensional, higher-order model to simulate its evolution over the next 50 yr in response to changes in its surface mass balance, the position of its calving front and ocean-induced ice shelf melting. Simulations show that the largest climatic impact on ice dynamics is the rate of ice shelf melting, which rapidly affects the glacier speed over several hundreds of kilometers upstream of the grounding line. Our simulations show that the speedup observed in the 1990s and 2000s is consistent with an increase in sub-ice-shelf melting. According to our modeling results, even if the grounding line stabilizes for a few decades, we find that the glacier reaction can continue for several decades longer. Furthermore, Pine Island Glacier will continue to change rapidly over the coming decades and remain a major contributor to sea level rise, even if ocean-induced melting is reduced.

scholarly journals Assessing groundwater vulnerability to sea water intrusion in the coastline of the inner Puck Bay using GALDIT method

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 00023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawid Potrykus ◽  
Anna Gumuła-Kawęcka ◽  
Beata Jaworska-Szulc ◽  
Małgorzata Pruszkowska-Caceres ◽  
Adam Szymkiewicz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Seawater Intrusion ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Groundwater Vulnerability ◽  
Aquifer Vulnerability ◽  
Galdit Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Simulated Scenario ◽  
Puck Bay

In this research, GALDIT method was used to assess seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the inner Puck Bay (Southern Baltic Sea). The impact of potential sea-level rise on groundwater vulnerability for years 2081-2100 was also considered. The study area was categorized into three classes of vulnerability: low, moderate and high. The most vulnerable area is the Hel Peninsula with northern part of the Kashubian Coastland. Increased class of aquifer vulnerability is also adopted to glacial valleys. The results of this research revealed that about 18.9% of the analyzed area is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion, 25.3% is moderately vulnerable and 55.8% is potentially at low risk. The simulated scenario of predicted sea level rise shows enlargement of high vulnerability areas.

scholarly journals Impact of Barrier Breaching on Wetland Ecosystems under the Influence of Storm Surge, Sea-Level Rise and Freshwater Discharge

Wetlands ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 771-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorong Li ◽  
Nicoletta Leonardi ◽  
Andrew J. Plater
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Wetland Ecology ◽  
Barrier Beach ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Wetland Habitats

Abstract Coastal wetland ecosystems and biodiversity are susceptible to changes in salinity brought about by the local effects of climate change, meteorological extremes, coastal evolution and human intervention. This study investigates changes in the salinity of surface water and the associated impacts on back-barrier wetlands as a result of breaching of a barrier beach and under the compound action of different surge heights, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), river discharge and rainfall. We show that barrier breaching can have significant effects in terms of vegetation die-back even without the occurrence of large storm surges or in the absence of SLR, and that rainfall alone is unlikely to be sufficient to mitigate increased salinity due to direct tidal flushing. Results demonstrate that an increase in sea level corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario for year 2100 causes a greater impact in terms of reedbed loss than storm surges up to 2 m with no SLR. In mitigation of the consequent changes in wetland ecology, regulation of relatively small and continuous river discharge can be regarded as a strategy for the management of coastal back-barrier wetland habitats and for the maintenance of brackish ecosystems. As such, this study provides a tool for scoping the potential impacts of storms, climate change and alternative management strategies on existing wetland habitats and species.

scholarly journals Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Osland ◽  
Nicholas M. Enwright ◽  
Richard H. Day ◽  
Christopher A. Gabler ◽  
Camille L. Stagg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Vulnerability Assessments

Spatio-temporal decomposition of geophysical signals in North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aoibheann Brady ◽  
Jonathan Rougier ◽  
Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma ◽  
Yann Ziegler ◽  
Richard Westaway ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Isostatic Adjustment ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>Sea level rise is one of the most significant consequences of projected future changes in climate. One factor which influences sea level rise is vertical land motion (VLM) due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which changes the elevation of the ocean floor. Typically, GIA forward models are used for this purpose, but these are known to vary with the assumptions made about ice loading history and Earth structure. In this study, we implement a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to explore a data-driven VLM solution for North America, with the aim of separating out the overall signal into its GIA and hydrology (mass change) components. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model is implemented in INLA using satellite (GRACE) and in-situ (GPS) data as observations. Under the assumption that GIA varies in space but is constant in time, and that hydrology is both spatially- and temporally-variable, it is possible to separate the contributions of each component with an associated uncertainty level. Early results will be presented. Extensions to the BHM framework to investigate sea level rise at the global scale, such as the inclusion of additional processes and incorporation of increased volumes of data, will be discussed.</p>

Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 2876-2887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinéad M. Borchert ◽  
Michael J. Osland ◽  
Nicholas M. Enwright ◽  
Kereen T. Griffith
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Coastal Squeeze

Vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise of the 35th biodiversity hotspot, the Forests of East Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. BELLARD ◽  
C. LECLERC ◽  
B. D. HOFFMANN ◽  
F. COURCHAMP
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Biodiversity Hotspot ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Wet Tropics ◽  
Agricultural Areas

SUMMARYThere is an urgent need to understand how climate change, including sea-level rise, is likely to threaten biodiversity and cause secondary effects, such as agro-ecosystem alteration and human displacement. The consequences of climate change, and the resulting sea-level rise within the Forests of East Australia biodiversity hotspot, were modelled and assessed for the 2070–2099 period. Climate change effects were predicted to affectc. 100000 km2, and a rise in sea level an area of 860 km2; this could potentially lead to the displacement of 20600 inhabitants. The two threats were projected to mainly affect natural and agricultural areas. The greatest conservation benefits would be obtained by either maintaining or increasing the conservation status of areas in the northern (Wet Tropics) or southern (Sydney Basin) extremities of the hotspot, as they constitute about half of the area predicted to be affected by climate change, and both areas harbour high species richness. Increasing the connectivity of protected areas for Wet Tropics and Sydney Basin species to enable them to move into new habitat areas is also important. This study provides a basis for future research on the effects on local biodiversity and agriculture.

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