scholarly journals Hydrogeological Bayesian Hypothesis Testing through Trans-Dimensional Sampling of a Stochastic Water Balance Model

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trine Enemark ◽  
Luk JM Peeters ◽  
Dirk Mallants ◽  
Okke Batelaan ◽  
Andrew P. Valentine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Groundwater Balance ◽  
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Groundwater Flow Modelling ◽  
Set Up

Conceptual uncertainty is considered one of the major sources of uncertainty in groundwater flow modelling. In this regard, hypothesis testing is essential to increase system understanding by refuting alternative conceptual models. Often a stepwise approach, with respect to complexity, is promoted but hypothesis testing of simple groundwater models is rarely applied. We present an approach to model-based Bayesian hypothesis testing in a simple groundwater balance model, which involves optimization of a model in function of both parameter values and conceptual model through trans-dimensional sampling. We apply the methodology to the Wildman River area, Northern Territory, Australia, where we set up 32 different conceptual models. A factorial approach to conceptual model development allows for direct attribution of differences in performance to individual uncertain components of the conceptual model. The method provides a screening tool for prioritizing research efforts while also giving more confidence to the predicted water balance compared to a deterministic water balance solution. We show that the testing of alternative conceptual models can be done efficiently with a simple additive and linear groundwater balance model and is best done relatively early in the groundwater modelling workflow.

Systematic hydrogeological conceptual model testing using remote sensing and geophysical data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trine Enemark ◽  
Luk Peeters ◽  
Dirk Mallants ◽  
Okke Batelaan
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Physical Structure ◽  
Geophysical Data ◽  
Alternative Models ◽  
Groundwater Flow Modelling ◽  
Process Structure

<p>Conceptual uncertainty is considered one of the major sources of uncertainty in groundwater flow modelling. In this regard, hypothesis testing is essential to increase system understanding by analysing and refuting alternative conceptual models. We present a systematic approach to conceptual model development and testing, which involves defining alternative models and then attempting to refute the alternative understandings using independent data. The method aims at finding an ensemble of conceptual understandings that are consistent with prior knowledge and observational data, rather than tuning the parameters of a single conceptual model to conform with the data through inversion.</p><p>The alternative understandings we test relate to the hydrological functioning of enclosed depressions in the landscape of the Wildman River Area, Northern Territory, Australia. These depressions provide potential for time-dependent surface water-groundwater interactions. Alternative models are developed representing the process structure and physical structure of the conceptual model of the depressions. Remote sensing data is used to test the process structure, while geophysical data is used to test the physical structure of the conceptual models.</p><p>The remote sensing and geophysical data are used twice in the applied workflow. First in a model rejection step, where models whose priors are inconsistent with the observations are rejected and removed from the ensemble. Then the data are used to update the probability of the accepted alternative conceptual models.</p><p>The updated conceptual model probabilities of the combined physical and process structures revealed the data indicated that the depressions act as preferential groundwater recharge features for three out of five depressions used as test case. For the fourth depression, the data is indecisive, and more testing would be needed to discriminate between model structures. For the fifth depression, all physical structures were rejected indicating that the model structure is still an unknown unknown.</p><p>This insight into system functioning gained from testing alternative conceptual models can be used in future modelling exercises. With more confidence in the conceptual model, confidence in the predictions of future modelling exercise increase, which can that underpin environmental management decisions.</p>

Estimation of Spatial and Temporal Groundwater Balance Components in Khadir Canal Sub-Division, Chaj Doab, Pakistan

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aslam ◽  
Ali Salem ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
Muhammad Arshad
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Aquifer Management ◽  
Groundwater Balance ◽  
Semi Arid

Evaluation of the spatial and temporal distribution of water balance components is required for efficient and sustainable management of groundwater resources, especially in semi-arid and data-poor areas. The Khadir canal sub-division, Chaj Doab, Pakistan, is a semi-arid area which has shallow aquifers which are being pumped by a plethora of wells with no effective monitoring. This study employed a monthly water balance model (water and energy transfer among soil, plants, and atmosphere)—WetSpass-M—to determine the groundwater balance components on annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales for a period of the last 20 years (2000–2019) in the Khadir canal sub-division. The spatial distribution of water balance components depends on soil texture, land use, groundwater level, slope, and meteorological conditions. Inputs for the model included data on topography, slope, soil, groundwater depth, slope, land use, and meteorological data (e.g., precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and wind speed) which were prepared using ArcGIS. The long-term average annual rainfall (455.7 mm) is distributed as 231 mm (51%) evapotranspiration, 109.1 mm (24%) surface runoff, and 115.6 mm (25%) groundwater recharge. About 51% of groundwater recharge occurs in summer, 18% in autumn, 14% in winter, and 17% in spring. Results showed that the WetSpass-M model properly simulated the water balance components of the Khadir canal sub-division. The WetSpass-M model’s findings can be used to develop a regional groundwater model for simulation of different aquifer management scenarios in the Khadir area, Pakistan.

scholarly journals Teaching hydrogeology in the field: the bottleneck in student conceptual model development

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joaquin Jimenez-Martinez
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Prior Knowledge ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Learning Strategy ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Field Site ◽  
Inquiry Based Learning ◽  
Cognitive Difficulties ◽  
Large Heterogeneity ◽  
Model Expression

Abstract. Teaching hydrogeology in the field presents unique cognitive difficulties, including the multidisciplinary and hidden nature of the processes. Lecturers commonly encounter large heterogeneity in student backgrounds, and many students harbor pre-existing mental models of the subsurface that differ from reality. In this study, we assess the influence of a student’s prior knowledge on his/her outcome in an inquiry-based learning strategy designed for a hydrogeology field course. We also assess the effectiveness of this strategy in the students’ conceptual model expression for the field site. Statistical results showed that in general lower scores were obtained in the conceptual model expression than in the inquiry-based learning. However, students with a high prior knowledge showed in average a better performance in the conceptual model expression, although with a larger variability, indicating that the prior knowledge is not a guarantee for an adequate conceptual model conception. In general, a learning bottleneck was identified: going from the split information to the integration of it. In the light of these findings, and in order to improve the student’s ability for conceptual model expression, we recommend the inclusion of specific prior-to-field lessons in the classroom to introduce methodologies for the expression of hydrogeological conceptual models to identify and dispel any prior misconceptions.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of groundwater recharge using climatic analogues and HYDRUS-1D

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 2485-2497 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Leterme ◽  
D. Mallants ◽  
D. Jacques
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Subtropical Climate ◽  
Northern Spain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrus 1D

Abstract. The sensitivity of groundwater recharge to different climate conditions was simulated using the approach of climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently experiencing climatic conditions corresponding to a possible future climate state. The study was conducted in the context of a safety assessment of a future near-surface disposal facility for low and intermediate level short-lived radioactive waste in Belgium; this includes estimation of groundwater recharge for the next millennia. Groundwater recharge was simulated using the Richards based soil water balance model HYDRUS-1D and meteorological time series from analogue stations. This study used four analogue stations for a warmer subtropical climate with changes of average annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from −42% to +5% and from +8% to +82%, respectively, compared to the present-day climate. Resulting water balance calculations yielded a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 72% to an increase of 3% for the four different analogue stations. The Gijon analogue station (Northern Spain), considered as the most representative for the near future climate state in the study area, shows an increase of 3% of groundwater recharge for a 5% increase of annual precipitation. Calculations for a colder (tundra) climate showed a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 97% to an increase of 32% for four different analogue stations, with an annual precipitation change from −69% to −14% compared to the present-day climate.

Assessment of interbasin groundwater flows between catchments using a semi-distributed water balance model

2014 ◽  
Vol 519 ◽  
pp. 1848-1858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Pellicer-Martínez ◽  
José Miguel Martínez-Paz
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model

scholarly journals A Critical Evaluation of the FBST ev for Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ly ◽  
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
Keyword(s):  
Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Absence Of Evidence ◽  
Evidence Of Absence ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

AbstractThe “Full Bayesian Significance Test e-value”, henceforth FBST ev, has received increasing attention across a range of disciplines including psychology. We show that the FBST ev leads to four problems: (1) the FBST ev cannot quantify evidence in favor of a null hypothesis and therefore also cannot discriminate “evidence of absence” from “absence of evidence”; (2) the FBST ev is susceptible to sampling to a foregone conclusion; (3) the FBST ev violates the principle of predictive irrelevance, such that it is affected by data that are equally likely to occur under the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis; (4) the FBST ev suffers from the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox in that it does not include a correction for selection. These problems also plague the frequentist p-value. We conclude that although the FBST ev may be an improvement over the p-value, it does not provide a reasonable measure of evidence against the null hypothesis.

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