scholarly journals Stability of Irrigation Canal Slopes Considering the Sea Level Rise and Dynamic Changes: Case Study El-Salam Canal, Egypt

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismail Abd-Elaty ◽  
Hazem Eldeeb ◽  
Zuzana Vranayova ◽  
Martina Zelenakova
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Slope Failure ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Irrigation Canal ◽  
Visual Modflow ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Finite Element Program ◽  
Shear Strength Reduction Method

Stability of canals slopes are of paramount importance in engineering works due to its interaction with the infrastructure including roads networks and buildings. The failure of these slopes could cause human disaster, catastrophic environmental, and economic losses. The present study aims to investigate the stability of canals slopes considering the climate changes through sea level rise, fluctuation of groundwater level and the seismic actions. The study was simulated on the North Eastern part of Nile Delta aquifer, Egypt using the finite difference code of Visual MODFLOW. Moreover, the groundwater flow under the effect of sea level rise was investigated to study its effect on slope stability of El-Salam Canal, Egypt. Furthermore, the finite element program of Phase 2 was implemented, and safety factors were calculated using the shear strength reduction method (SSRM). The models are calibrated and verified through experimental work using permeability and seepage model. Moreover, the two models were applied on El-Salam Canal considering three scenarios to identify the safety factors including the effect of sea level rise (SLR), earthquake acceleration and a combination of the two scenarios. The results indicated that dynamic response values of the canal slope have different variation rules under near and far field earthquakes. Finally, the damage location and pattern of the slope failure are different in varying groundwater conditions.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3737
Author(s):  
Osamu Nishiura ◽  
Makoto Tamura ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Kiyoshi Takahashi ◽  
Junya Takakura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Coastal areas provide important services and functions for social and economic activities. Damage due to sea level rise (SLR) is one of the serious problems anticipated and caused by climate change. In this study, we assess the global economic impact of inundation due to SLR by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates detailed coastal damage information. The scenario analysis considers multiple general circulation models, socioeconomic assumptions, and stringency of climate change mitigation measures. We found that the global household consumption loss proportion will be 0.045%, with a range of 0.027−0.066%, in 2100. Socioeconomic assumptions cause a difference in the loss proportion of up to 0.035% without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the so-called baseline scenarios. The range of the loss proportion among GHG emission scenarios is smaller than the differences among the socioeconomic assumptions. We also observed large regional variations and, in particular, the consumption losses in low-income countries are, relatively speaking, larger than those in high-income countries. These results indicate that, even if we succeed in stabilizing the global mean temperature increase below 2 °C, economic losses caused by SLR will inevitably happen to some extent, which may imply that keeping the global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C would be worthwhile to consider.

scholarly journals Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Groundwater Extraction Scenarios on Fresh Groundwater Resources in the Nile Delta Governorates, Egypt

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marmar Mabrouk ◽  
Andreja Jonoski ◽  
Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink ◽  
Stefan Uhlenbrook
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Salt Transport ◽  
Groundwater Extraction ◽  
Fresh Groundwater ◽  
The Impact

As Egypt’s population increases, the demand for fresh groundwater extraction will intensify. Consequently, the groundwater quality will deteriorate, including an increase in salinization. On the other hand, salinization caused by saltwater intrusion in the coastal Nile Delta Aquifer (NDA) is also threatening the groundwater resources. The aim of this article is to assess the situation in 2010 (since this is when most data is sufficiently available) regarding the available fresh groundwater resources and to evaluate future salinization in the NDA using a 3D variable-density groundwater flow model coupled with salt transport that was developed with SEAWAT. This is achieved by examining six future scenarios that combine two driving forces: increased extraction and sea level rise (SLR). Given the prognosis of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the scenarios are used to assess the impact of groundwater extraction versus SLR on the seawater intrusion in the Delta and evaluate their contributions to increased groundwater salinization. The results show that groundwater extraction has a greater impact on salinization of the NDA than SLR, while the two factors combined cause the largest reduction of available fresh groundwater resources. The significant findings of this research are the determination of the groundwater volumes of fresh water, brackish, light brackish and saline water in the NDA as a whole and in each governorate and the identification of the governorates that are most vulnerable to salinization. It is highly recommended that the results of this analysis are considered in future mitigation and/or adaptation plans.

scholarly journals Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt

2015 ◽  
Vol 503-504 ◽  
pp. 279-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janez Sušnik ◽  
Lydia S. Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia ◽  
Niklas Baumert ◽  
Julia Kloos ◽  
Fabrice G. Renaud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Interdisciplinary Assessment

scholarly journals Simulation of seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta aquifer under the conditions of climate change

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1198-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hany Abd-Elhamid ◽  
Akbar Javadi ◽  
Ismail Abdelaty ◽  
Mohsen Sherif
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Seawater Intrusion ◽  
Unsaturated Soils ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Piezometric Head

The problem of seawater intrusion is encountered in almost all coastal aquifers. Because of its higher density, the seawater migrates inland into freshwater aquifers even without any pumping activities. Excessive pumping of groundwater would accelerate seawater intrusion. Climate change and sea level rise represent critical parameters affecting the rate and degree of seawater intrusion. In this paper, a coupled transient finite element model for simulation of fluid flow and solute transport in saturated and unsaturated soils (2D-FEST) is employed to study the seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta aquifer. The results of the current model are compared to results of SEAWAT for model verification. The (2D-FEST) model is used to investigate seawater intrusion considering the impacts of climate change. Three scenarios are studied: (a) rise in sea level, (b) decline of the piezometric head at the land side due to excessive pumping, and (c) combination of sea level rise and decline of the piezometric head. The results show that the rise in the sea level has a significant effect on the position of the transition zone. The third scenario represents the worst case under which the groundwater quality would deteriorate in large areas of the Nile Delta aquifer.

scholarly journals Vulnerability Assessment for Sea Level Rise Impacts on Coastal Systems of Gamasa Ras El Bar Area, Nile Delta, Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3624
Author(s):  
Ibrahim A. Elshinnawy ◽  
Abdulrazak H. Almaliki
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Saltwater Intrusion ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Coastal Systems ◽  
Groundwater Aquifer ◽  
Ras El Bar

The objective of the current study was to assess the vulnerability of coastal systems to sea level rise (SLR) impacts in the Gamasa Ras El Bar area, which is one of the most vulnerable coastal areas in the Nile delta, Egypt. To achieve the study objective, a field campaign was carried out to investigate, measure and collect data. These data, as well as historical data, were analyzed to identify projected inundation areas, erosion and accretion rates, shoreline changes, wave climate and saltwater intrusion, as well as drainage infrastructure efficiency. The results of a 73-cm SLR, projected up to the end of current century in the study area, indicate the following. Inundation areas will be about 2.16% of the study area. Although the significant wave height increased by 3.1 cm per year from 1999 to 2010, the results are indicative and might be taken into consideration in future coastal management plans. The expected variation in groundwater heads due to sea level rise will lead to an increase in groundwater heads ranging from 0 to 0.5 m above the current level. The change expected in groundwater will lead to saltwater intrusion by 1 km landward. The analysis of our results showed that about 271 km2 (60%) of the area under study will be negatively affected by rising groundwater. This area is occupied by about 70% of the localities in the study area. The analysis of the projected groundwater level rise showed that it will increase the discharges of the sub-drainage system by about 10% of the current rates and less than 1.2% for the open system. It is concluded that the drainage system has the sub-capacity to host the expected increase in drainage discharges without any modifications of the cross-sectional area of most of the drains. In addition, the coastal groundwater aquifer was found to be the most vulnerable system in the study area.

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