scholarly journals Recent and Future Changes in Rainfall Erosivity and Implications for the Soil Erosion Risk in Brandenburg, NE Germany

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gericke ◽  
Kiesel ◽  
Deumlich ◽  
Venohr
Keyword(s):  
Soil Loss ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Ne Germany ◽  
The Impact ◽  
R Factors

The universal soil loss equation (USLE) is widely used to identify areas of erosion risk at regional scales. In Brandenburg, USLE R factors are usually estimated from summer rainfall, based on a relationship from the 1990s. We compared estimated and calculated factors of 22 stations with 10-minutes rainfall data. To obtain more realistic estimations, we regressed the latter to three rainfall indices (total and heavy-rainfall sums). These models were applied to estimate future R factors of 188 climate stations. To assess uncertainties, we derived eight scenarios from 15 climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP), and compared the effects of index choice to the choices of climate model, RCP, and bias correction. The existing regression model underestimated the calculated R factors by 40%. Moreover, using heavy-rainfall sums instead of total sums explained the variability of current R factors better, increased their future changes, and reduced the model uncertainty. The impact of index choice on future R factors was similar to the other choices. Despite all uncertainties, the results indicate that average R factors will remain above past values. Instead, the extent of arable land experiencing excessive soil loss might double until the mid-century with RCP 8.5 and unchanged land management.

scholarly journals Time Scale Effects and Interactions of Rainfall Erosivity and Cover Management Factors on Vineyard Soil Loss Erosion in the Semi-Arid Area of Southern Sicily

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Baiamonte ◽  
Mario Minacapilli ◽  
Agata Novara ◽  
Luciano Gristina
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Temporal Scale ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Best Management ◽  
The Impact

Several authors describe the effectiveness of cover crop management practice as an important tool to prevent soil erosion, but at the same time, they stress on the high soil loss variability due to the interaction of several factors characterized by large uncertainty. In this paper the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model is applied to two Sicilian vineyards that are characterized by different topographic factors; one is subjected to Conventional Practice (CP) and the other to Best Management Practice (BMP). By using climatic input data at a high temporal scale resolution for the rainfall erosivity (R) factor, and remotely sensed imagery for the cover and management (C) factor, the importance of an appropriate R and C factor assessment and their inter and intra-annual interactions in determining soil erosion variability are showed. Different temporal analysis at ten-year, seasonal, monthly and event scales showed that results at events scales allow evidencing the interacting factors that determine erosion risk features which at other temporal scales of resolution can be hidden. The impact of BMP in preventing soil erosion is described in terms of average saved soil loss over the 10-year period of observation. The evaluation of soil erosion at a different temporal scale and its implications can help stakeholders and scientists formulate better soil conservation practices and agricultural management, and also consider that erosivity rates are expected to raise for the increase of rainfall intensity linked to climate change.

scholarly journals Assessing Soil Loss by Water Erosion in a Typical Mediterranean Ecosystem of Northern Greece under Current and Future Rainfall Erosivity

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2002
Author(s):  
Stefanos Stefanidis ◽  
Vasileios Alexandridis ◽  
Chrysoula Chatzichristaki ◽  
Panagiotis Stefanidis
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Renewable Resource ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Mediterranean Ecosystem ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Erosion Risk

Soil is a non-renewable resource essential for life existence. During the last decades it has been threatened by accelerating erosion with negative consequences for the environment and the economy. The aim of the current study was to assess soil loss changes in a typical Mediterranean ecosystem of Northern Greece, under climate change. To this end, freely available geospatial data was collected and processed using open-source software package. The widespread RUSLE empirical erosion model was applied to estimate soil loss. Current and future rainfall erosivity were derived from a national scale study considering average weather conditions and RCMs outputs for the medium Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP4.5). Results showed that average rainfall erosivity (R-Factor) was 508.85 MJ mm ha h−1 y−1 while the K-factor ranged from 0.0008 to 0.05 t ha h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1 and LS-factor reached 60.51. Respectively, C-factor ranged from 0.01 to 0.91 and P-factor ranged from 0.42 to 1. The estimated potential soil loss rates will remain stable for the near future period (2021–2050), while an increase of approximately 9% is expected by the end of the 21th century (2071–2100). The results suggest that appropriate erosion mitigation strategies should be applied to reduce erosion risk. Subsequently, appropriate mitigation measures per Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) categories are proposed. It is worth noting that the proposed methodology has a high degree of transferability as it is based on open-source data.

scholarly journals The representation of solar cycle signals in stratospheric ozone. Part II: Analysis of global models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Katja Matthes ◽  
Susann Tegtmeier ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate model simulations to fully capture the atmospheric response to solar variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the solar-ozone response (SOR) during the 11 year solar cycle amongst different chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry. We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the WCRP/SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with three ozone databases: the Bodeker Scientific database, the SPARC/AC&C database for CMIP5, and the SPARC/CCMI database for CMIP6. The results reveal substantial differences in the representation of the SOR between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. The peak amplitude of theSOR in the upper stratosphere (1–5 hPa) decreases from 5 % to 2 % between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 databases. This difference is because the CMIP5 database was constructed from a regression model fit to satellite observations, whereas the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations, which use a spectral solar irradiance (SSI) dataset with relatively weak UV forcing. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database is therefore implicitly more similar to the SOR in the CCMI-1 models than to the CMIP5 ozone database, which shows a greater resemblance in amplitude and structure to the SOR in the Bodeker database. The latitudinal structure of the annual mean SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows strong gradients in the SOR across the midlatitudes owing to the paucity of observations at high latitudes. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and in the CCMI-1 models show a strong seasonal dependence, including large meridional gradients at mid to high latitudes during winter; such seasonal variations in the SOR are not included in the CMIP5 ozone database. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the impact of changes in the representation of the SOR and SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The experiments show that the smaller amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database compared to CMIP5 causes a decrease in the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response over the solar cycle of up to 0.6 K, or around 50 % of the total amplitude. The changes in the SOR explain most of the difference in the amplitude of the tropical stratospheric temperature response in the case with combined changes in SOR and SSI between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasise the importance of adequately representing the SOR in climate models to capture the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, CMIP6 models without chemistry are encouraged to use the CMIP6 ozone database to capture the climate impacts of solar variability.

Evaluating the Consistency between Statistically Downscaled and Global Dynamical Model Climate Change Projections

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 6052-6059 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Timbal ◽  
P. Hope ◽  
S. Charles
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Direct Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The consistency between rainfall projections obtained from direct climate model output and statistical downscaling is evaluated. Results are averaged across an area large enough to overcome the difference in spatial scale between these two types of projections and thus make the comparison meaningful. Undertaking the comparison using a suite of state-of-the-art coupled climate models for two forcing scenarios presents a unique opportunity to test whether statistical linkages established between large-scale predictors and local rainfall under current climate remain valid in future climatic conditions. The study focuses on the southwest corner of Western Australia, a region that has experienced recent winter rainfall declines and for which climate models project, with great consistency, further winter rainfall reductions due to global warming. Results show that as a first approximation the magnitude of the modeled rainfall decline in this region is linearly related to the model global warming (a reduction of about 9% per degree), thus linking future rainfall declines to future emission paths. Two statistical downscaling techniques are used to investigate the influence of the choice of technique on projection consistency. In addition, one of the techniques was assessed using different large-scale forcings, to investigate the impact of large-scale predictor selection. Downscaled and direct model projections are consistent across the large number of models and two scenarios considered; that is, there is no tendency for either to be biased; and only a small hint that large rainfall declines are reduced in downscaled projections. Among the two techniques, a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model provides greater consistency with climate models than an analog approach. Differences were due to the choice of the optimal combination of predictors. Thus statistically downscaled projections require careful choice of large-scale predictors in order to be consistent with physically based rainfall projections. In particular it was noted that a relative humidity moisture predictor, rather than specific humidity, was needed for downscaled projections to be consistent with direct model output projections.

scholarly journals Estimativa da erosividade da chuva por diferentes métodos e seu impacto na equação universal de perdas de solo, no semiárido pernambucano (Estimation of erosivity by different methods and their impact on the universal soil loss equation in Pernambuco semi-arid)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 859
Author(s):  
Joaquim Pedro de Santana Xavier ◽  
Alexandre Hugo Cezar Barros ◽  
Daniel Chaves Webber ◽  
Luciano José de Oliveira Accioly ◽  
Flávio Adriano Marques ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Loss ◽  
Universal Soil Loss Equation ◽  
Rainfall Erosivity ◽  
R Factor ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Erosion Loss ◽  
R Factors ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Soil Loss Equation

Dentre os diversos métodos indiretos para estimar as perdas de solo por erosão, a Equação Universal de Perdas de Solo (EUPS) é a mais utilizada devido a sua robustez e por ser constituída de uma simples estrutura fatorial, que integra fatores naturais e antrópicos atuantes na perda de solos. A erosão é um dos fenômenos mais danosos ao solo e às atividades humanas e por isso seu estudo é importante. Para o cálculo das perdas de solo por meio da EUPS, a avaliação da erosividade das chuvas (fator R) é essencial, pois estima o fenômeno produzido pelas chuvas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar três metodologias disponíveis de obtenção da erosividade das chuvas para a região do semiárido pernambucano, avaliando sua influência nos resultados da EUPS. Os três modelos selecionados para estimar o Fator R foram desenvolvidos por Wischmeier e Smith (mais conhecido e utilizado), por Silva que estimou valores para diversas regiões do País e por Cantalice e outros que trabalharam especificamente para cada região climática do estado de Pernambuco. Os resultados indicam que as metodologias de Wischmeier e Smith e Silva obtiveram resultados de erosividade da chuva semelhantes, tendo Silva alcançado valores maiores. Cantalice e outros obtiveram os resultados mais baixos. Os resultados da EUPS indicam que, quantitativamente, os diferentes fatores R geram grande diferença nas perdas de solo, porém, qualitativamente chegam a resultados semelhantes na classificação de áreas de maior erosão, de acordo com a FAO. Logo, as três metodologias são viáveis na identificação de áreas prioritárias para a mitigação da erosão.   A B S T R A C TAmong several indirect methods to estimate soil erosion loss, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (EUPS) is the most used due to its robustness and because it is constituted of a simple factorial structure that integrates natural and anthropic factors which act in the loss of soils. Erosion is one of the most damaging phenomena to the soil and the human activities, evidencing the importance of studying it. The evaluation of rainfall erosivity (R factor) is essential for the calculation of soil loss through the EUPS, since it is possible to estimate how significant rainfall is to the occurrence of this phenomenon. The objective of this work was to evaluate three methodologies to obtain the rainfall erosivity available for the semi - arid region of Pernambuco, evaluating its influence on the results of the EUPS. The three models used to estimate the R-factor were developed by Wischmeier and Smith, the best known and used model, Silva who estimated values for several regions of the country and Cantalice and others who worked specifically for each climatic region of the state of Pernambuco. As a result, very similar results of rainfall erosivity were obtained between Wischmeier and Smith´s and Silva´s methodology, with Silva reaching higher values of energy amplitude, while Cantalice and others obtained the lowest results. The results of EUPS indicate that, quantitatively, the different R factors generate a large difference in soil loss, but qualitatively they reach similar results in the classification of areas where erosion are greater, according to the FAO. Therefore, the three methodologies are feasible in the identification of priority areas for erosion mitigation.Keywords: soil, rainfall erosivity, USLE, GIS

scholarly journals Assessment of Soil Erosion and Its Impact on Agricultural Productivity by Using the RMMF Model and Local Perception: A Case Study of Rangun Watershed of Mid-Hills, Nepal

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Dinesh Bhandari ◽  
Rajeev Joshi ◽  
Raju Raj Regmi ◽  
Nripesh Awasthi
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Weighted Mean ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Barren Land ◽  
Erosion Risk ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The Impact

Soil erosion is a major concern for the environment and natural resources leading to a serious threat to agricultural productivity and one of the major causes of land degradation in the mid-hills region of Nepal. An accurate assessment of soil erosion is needed to reduce the problem of soil loss in highly fragile mountainous areas. The present study aimed to assess spatial soil loss rate and identified risk areas and their perceived impact on agricultural productivity by using the Revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney (RMMF) model and social survey in the Rangun watershed of Dadeldhura district, Nepal. Soil erosion was assessed by using data on soil, digital elevation model, rainfall, land use, and land cover visually interpreted from multitemporal satellite images, and ILWIS 3.3 academic software was used to perform the model. A household questionnaire survey (n = 120) and focus group discussion (n = 2) in identified risk areas were carried out to understand the people’s perception towards soil erosion and its impact on agricultural productivity. The predicted average soil erosions from the forest, agriculture, and barren land were 2.7 t ha−1 yr−1, 53.73 t ha−1 yr−1, and 462.59 t ha−1 yr−1, respectively. The erosion risk area under very low to low, moderate to moderately high, and high to very high covers 92.32%, 4.96%, and 2.73%, respectively. It indicates that the rate of soil erosion was lower in forest areas, whereas it was higher in the barren land. The cropped area of the watershed has been reduced by 2.96 ha−1 yr−1, and productivity has been decreased by 0.238 t ha−1 yr−1. The impacts such as removal of topsoil (weighted mean = 4.19) and gully formation (weighted mean = 3.56) were the highest perceived factors causing productivity decline due to erosion. People perceived the impact of erosion in agricultural productivity differently ( ∗ significant at P ≤ 0.05 ). The study concluded that, comparatively, barren and agricultural lands seem more susceptible to erosion, so the long-term conservation and management investment in susceptible areas for restoration, protection, and socioeconomic support contribute significantly to land rehabilitation in the Rangun watershed.

Influence of Ocean and Atmosphere Components on Simulated Climate Sensitivities

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Winton ◽  
Alistair Adcroft ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Robert W. Hallberg ◽  
Larry W. Horowitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Salinity Response ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The influence of alternative ocean and atmosphere subcomponents on climate model simulation of transient sensitivities is examined by comparing three GFDL climate models used for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The base model ESM2M is closely related to GFDL’s CMIP3 climate model version 2.1 (CM2.1), and makes use of a depth coordinate ocean component. The second model, ESM2G, is identical to ESM2M but makes use of an isopycnal coordinate ocean model. The authors compare the impact of this “ocean swap” with an “atmosphere swap” that produces the GFDL Climate Model version 3 (CM3) by replacing the AM2 atmospheric component with AM3 while retaining a depth coordinate ocean model. The atmosphere swap is found to have much larger influence on sensitivities of global surface temperature and Northern Hemisphere sea ice cover. The atmosphere swap also introduces a multidecadal response time scale through its indirect influence on heat uptake. Despite significant differences in their interior ocean mean states, the ESM2M and ESM2G simulations of these metrics of climate change are very similar, except for an enhanced high-latitude salinity response accompanied by temporarily advancing sea ice in ESM2G. In the ESM2G historical simulation this behavior results in the establishment of a strong halocline in the subpolar North Atlantic during the early twentieth century and an associated cooling, which are counter to observations in that region. The Atlantic meridional overturning declines comparably in all three models.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

Selecting suitable climate models for examining future changes in soil erosion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Brannigan ◽  
Donal Mullan ◽  
Karel Vandaele ◽  
Conor Graham ◽  
Jennifer McKinley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Model Selection ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Suitable Climate ◽  
Erosion Models ◽  
Soil Erosion By Water ◽  
The Impact

<p>Climate models consistently project large increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events in the 21st century, revealing the potential for widespread impacts on various aspects of society. While the impacts on flooding receive particular attention, there is also considerable damage and associated cost for other precipitation driven phenomena, including soil erosion and muddy flooding. Multiple studies have shown that climate change will worsen the impacts of soil erosion and muddy flooding in various regions. These studies typically drive erosion models with a single model or a few models with little justification. A blind approach to climate model selection increases the risk of simulating a narrower range of possible scenarios, limiting vital information for mitigation planning and adaptation. This study provides a comprehensive methodology to efficiently select suitable climate models for simulating soil erosion and muddy flooding. For a case study region in eastern Belgium using the WEPP soil erosion model, we compare the performance of our novel methodology against other model selection methods for a future period (2081 – 2100). The main findings reveal that our novel methodology is successful in generating the widest range of future scenarios from a small number of models, when compared with other ways of selecting climate models. This approach has not previously been achieved for modelling soil erosion by water. Other precipitation-driven impact sectors may also wish to consider applying this method to assess the impact of future climatic changes, so that the worst- and best-case scenarios can be adequately prepared for.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing Future Spatio-Temporal Changes in Crop Suitability and Planting Season over West Africa: Using the Concept of Crop-Climate Departure

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Temitope S. Egbebiyi ◽  
Chris Lennard ◽  
Olivier Crespo ◽  
Phillip Mukwenha ◽  
Shakirudeen Lawal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Linear Correlation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Planting Season

The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORDEX regional climate model, RCA4 to drive the crop suitability model, Ecocrop. We applied the concept of the crop-climate departure (CCD) to evaluate future changes in the crop suitability and planting month for five crop types, cereals, legumes, fruits, root and tuber and horticulture over the historical and future months. Our result shows a reduction (negative linear correlation) and an expansion (positive linear correlation) in the suitable area and crop suitability index value in the Guinea-Savanna and Sahel (southern Sahel) zone, respectively. The horticulture crop was the most negatively affected with a decrease in the suitable area while cereals and legumes benefited from the expansion in suitable areas into the Sahel zone. In general, CCD would likely lead to a delay in the planting season by 2–4 months except for the orange and early planting dates by about 2–3 months for cassava. No projected changes in the planting month are observed for the plantain and pineapple which are annual crops. The study is relevant for a short and long-term adaptation option and planning for future changes in the crop suitability and planting month to improve food security in the region.

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