scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Spatiotemporal Hotspots of Hydrologic Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of Chinan Catchment, Taiwan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Chun Peng ◽  
Yu-Pin Lin ◽  
Guan-Wei Chen ◽  
Wan-Yu Lien
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Integrated Valuation ◽  
Sediment Export ◽  
The Impact

Hydrologic ecosystem services are greatly affected by the changing climate. In this study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to quantify hydrologic ecosystem services. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were selected to estimate hydrologic ecosystem services. The Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) index was used to identify hydrologic ecosystem hotspots. The hotspots were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the services. Results indicate that annual water yields vary from −17% to 8%, with significant intra-year fluctuation. Compared to baseline data, the CESM1-CAM5 predicts an increase of 45% in June, but HadGEM2-AO predicts a drop to only 12% in January. Sediment export results show a similar trend to water yield, with sediment export increasing significantly under RCP 8.5, and monthly sediment export increases concentrated from June and October. Nitrogen and phosphorous exports both show less significant changes but obvious intra-year variations. The CESM1-CAM5 predicts strong seasonal and spatial variation of the hydrologic ecosystem services. Our proposed approach successfully identifies annual and monthly hotspot spatial changes of hydrologic ecosystem services under climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of Strict Cropland Protection on Water Yield: A Case Study of Wuhan, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinli Ke ◽  
Liye Wang ◽  
Yanchun Ma ◽  
Kunpeng Pu ◽  
Ting Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Integrated Valuation ◽  
The Impact

Land use and land cover change is a critical factor of ecosystem services, while water yield plays a vital role in sustainable development. The impact of urban expansion on water yield has long been discussed, but water yield change resulting from cropland protection is seldom concerned. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of cropland protection on water yield by comparing the water yield in two cropland protection scenarios (i.e., Strict Cropland Protection scenario and No Cropland Protection scenario). Specifically, the LAND System Cellular Automata for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE) model was employed to simulate land use maps in the two scenarios, while Water Yield module in the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used to calculate water yield. The results show water yield would increase by 8.7 × 107 m3 in the No Cropland Protection scenario and 9.4 × 107 m3 in the Strict Cropland Protection scenario. We conclude that implementation of strict cropland protection in rapid urbanizing areas may cause more water yield, which is also a prerequisite of potential urban flooding risk. This study throws that it is not wise to implement strict cropland protection policy in an area of rapid urbanization.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variation in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers among Different Landscape Heterogeneity Units and Terrain Gradients in the Southern Hill and Mountain Belt, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1375
Author(s):  
Liang-Jie Wang ◽  
Shuai Ma ◽  
Jiang Jiang ◽  
Yu-Guo Zhao ◽  
Jin-Chi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Soil Conservation ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Landscape Heterogeneity ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Casa Model ◽  
Mountain Belt ◽  
Integrated Valuation

Understanding the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecosystem services (ESs) and their drivers in mountainous areas is important for sustainable ecosystem management. However, the effective construction of landscape heterogeneous units (LHUs) to reflect the spatial characteristics of ESs remains to be studied. The southern hill and mountain belt (SHMB) is a typical mountainous region in China, with undulating terrain and obvious spatial heterogeneity of ESs, and was selected as the study area. In this study, we used the fuzzy k-means (FKM) algorithm to establish LHUs. Three major ESs (water yield, net primary productivity (NPP), and soil conservation) in 2000 and 2015 were quantified using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and Carnegie Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model. Then, we explored the spatial variation in ESs along terrain gradients and LHUs. Correlation analysis was used to analyze the driving factors of ESs in each terrain region and LHU. The results showed that altitude and terrain niche increased along LHUs. Water yield and soil conservation increased from 696.86 mm and 3920.19 t/km2 to 1061.12 mm and 5117.90 t/km2, respectively, while NPP decreased from 666.95 gC/m2 to 648.86 gC/m2. The ESs in different LHUs differed greatly. ESs increased first and then decreased along LHUs in 2000. In 2015, water yield decreased along LHUs, while NPP and soil conservation showed a fluctuating trend. Water yield was mainly affected by precipitation, temperature and NDVI were the main drivers of NPP, and soil conservation was greatly affected by precipitation and slope. The driving factors of the same ES were different in different terrain areas and LHUs. The variation and driving factors of ESs in LHUs were similar to some terrain gradients. To some extent, LHUs can represent multiple terrain features. This study can provide important support for mountain ecosystem zoning management and decision-making.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Accounting for uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity hotspots in Spain

2019 ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Romero ◽  
J. Olivero ◽  
R. Real
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Biodiversity Hotspots ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Vertebrate Species ◽  
Taxonomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Our limited understanding of the complexity of nature generates uncertainty in mathematical and cartographical models used to predict the effects of climate change on species’ distributions. We developed predictive models of distributional range shifts of threatened vertebrate species in mainland Spain, and in their accumulation in biodiversity hotspots due to climate change. We considered two relevant sources of climatological uncertainty that affect predictions of future climate: general circulation models and socio–economic scenarios. We also examined the relative importance of climate as a driver of species’ distribution and taxonomic uncertainty as additional biogeographical causes of uncertainty. Uncertainty was detected in all the forecasts derived from models in which climate was a significant explanatory factor, and in the species with taxonomic uncertainty. Uncertainty in forecasts was mainly located in areas not occupied by the species, and increased with time difference from the present. Mapping this uncertainty allowed us to assess the consistency of predictions regarding future changes in the distribution of hotspots of threatened vertebrates in Spain.

scholarly journals Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliano Assunção ◽  
Flávia Chein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

scholarly journals Water Availability In Patuha Mountain Region Using InVEST Model “Hydropower Water Yield”

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 01015
Author(s):  
Yudistiro ◽  
Eko Kusratmoko ◽  
Jarot Mulyo Semedi
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Mountain Region ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Yield Model ◽  
Invest Model ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
Lowland Area ◽  
Integrated Valuation

The mountainous region provides ecosystem services for the surrounding area and its lowland area. Patuha Mountain Region located in Ciwidey, Rancabali and Pasirjambu district of Bandung Regency. Fast population growth causing the need for water to increase drastically. The water yield from an ecosystem or watershed can be estimated using a hydrological model. This study aimed to estimate water yield, both the magnitude and their spatial distribution of the Patuha Mountain catchment areas. The water yield from the study area was calculated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) water yield model, which based on the water balance approach. The results indicated that the volume of water yield in Patuha Mountain for 2018 has a value between 21.429 to 31.857 m3/ha/year and approximately 1.202 million m3 per year. Spatially, sub-watersheds with a high volume of Water yield located in the southeast of Patuha Mountain, which is a mountainous area with an elevation of more than 1.500 m above sea level and rainfall average of 2.500 to 3300 mm per year. The water yield area also shows the same pattern with the distribution of the rainfall area.

scholarly journals Climate Change Effects on Spatiotemporal Patterns of Hydroclimatological Summer Droughts in Norway

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1205-1220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai Kwok Wong ◽  
Stein Beldring ◽  
Torill Engen-Skaugen ◽  
Ingjerd Haddeland ◽  
Hege Hisdal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the impact of climate change on droughts in Norway. A spatially distributed (1 × 1 km2) version of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) precipitation-runoff model was used to provide hydrological data for the analyses. Downscaled daily temperature and precipitation derived from two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models with two future emission scenarios were applied as input to the HBV model. The differences in hydroclimatological drought characteristics in the summer season between the periods 1961–90 and 2071–2100 were studied. The threshold level method was adopted to select drought events for both present and future climates. Changes in both the duration and spatial extent of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater droughts were identified. Despite small changes in future meteorological drought characteristics, substantial increases in hydrological drought duration and drought affected areas are expected, especially in the southern and northernmost parts of the country. Reduced summer precipitation is a major factor that affects changes in drought characteristics in the south while temperature increases play a more dominant role for the rest of the country.

Interpreting Results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX Ensembles in the Context of Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Projections

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (10) ◽  
pp. 2093-2106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambarish V. Karmalkar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTwo ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate simulations for North America—the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) featuring simulations for North America (NA-CORDEX)—are analyzed to assess the impact of using a small set of global general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) on representing uncertainty in regional projections. Selecting GCMs for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable strategy, but there are regions where the uncertainty is not fully captured. For instance, the six NA-CORDEX GCMs fail to span the full ranges produced by models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in summer temperature projections in the western and winter precipitation projections in the eastern United States. Similarly, the four NARCCAP GCMs are overall poor at spanning the full CMIP3 ranges in seasonal temperatures. For the Southeast, the NA-CORDEX GCMs capture the uncertainty in summer but not in winter projections, highlighting one consequence of downscaling a subset of GCMs. Ranges produced by the RCMs are often wider than their driving GCMs but are sensitive to the experimental design. For example, the downscaled projections of summer precipitation are of opposite polarity in two RCM ensembles in some regions. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate observed temperature trends is affected by the internal variability characteristics of both the RCMs and driving GCMs, and is not systematically related to their historical performance. This has implications for adequately sampling the impact of internal variability on regional trends and for using model performance to identify credible projections. These findings suggest that a multimodel perspective on uncertainties in regional projections is integral to the interpretation of RCM results.

scholarly journals Potential Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Egypt

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1715
Author(s):  
Soha M. Mostafa ◽  
Osama Wahed ◽  
Walaa Y. El-Nashar ◽  
Samia M. El-Marsafawy ◽  
Martina Zeleňáková ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a comprehensive study to assess the impact of climate change on Egypt’s water resources, focusing on irrigation water for agricultural crops, considering that the agriculture sector is the largest consumer of water in Egypt. The study aims to estimate future climate conditions using general circulation models (GCMs), to assess the impact of climate change and temperature increase on water demands for irrigation using the CROPWAT 8 model, and to determine the suitable irrigation type to adapt with future climate change. A case study was selected in the Middle part of Egypt. The study area includes Giza, Bani-Sweif, Al-Fayoum, and Minya governorates. The irrigation water requirements for major crops under current weather conditions and future climatic changes were estimated. Under the conditions of the four selected models CCSM-30, GFDLCM20, GFDLCM21, and GISS-EH, as well as the chosen scenario of A1BAIM, climate model (MAGICC/ScenGen) was applied in 2050 and 2100 to estimate the potential rise in the annual mean temperature in Middle Egypt. The results of the MAGICC/SceGen model indicated that the potential rise in temperature in the study area will be 2.12 °C in 2050, and 3.96 °C in 2100. The percentage of increase in irrigation water demands for winter crops under study ranged from 6.1 to 7.3% in 2050, and from 11.7 to 13.2% in 2100. At the same time, the increase in irrigation water demands for summer crops ranged from 4.9 to 5.8% in 2050, and from 9.3 to 10.9% in 2100. For Nili crops, the increase ranged from 5.0 to 5.1% in 2050, and from 9.6 to 9.9% in 2100. The increase in water demands due to climate change will affect the water security in Egypt, as the available water resources are limited, and population growth is another challenge which requires a proper management of water resources.

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