scholarly journals Modelling Snowmelt in Ungauged Catchments

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Massmann
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
The Us ◽  
Additional Radiation ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Gauged Basins ◽  
Data Requirements ◽  
Data Assimilation System

Temperature-based snowmelt models are simple to implement and tend to give goodresults in gauged basins. The situation is, however, different in ungauged basins, as the lack ofdischarge data precludes the calibration of the snowmelt parameters. The main objective of thisstudy was therefore to assess alternative approaches. This study compares the performance oftwo temperature-based snowmelt models (with and without an additional radiation term) and twoenergy-balance models with different data requirements in 312 catchments in the US. It considersthe impact of: (i) the meteorological forcing, by using two gridded datasets (Livneh and MERRA-2),(ii) different approaches for calibrating the snowmelt parameters (an a priori approach and onebased on Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), a remote sensing-based product) and (iii) theparameterization and structure of the hydrological model used for transforming the snowmelt signalinto streamflow at the basin outlet. The results show that energy-balance-based approaches achievethe best results, closely followed by the temperature-based model including a radiation term andcalibrated with SNODAS data. It is also seen that data availability and quality influence the rankingof the snowmelt models.

scholarly journals Linguistic validation of the simplified Chinese version of the US National Cancer Institute’s patient-reported outcomes version of the common terminology criteria for adverse events (PRO-CTCAE™)

BMC Cancer ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng KKF ◽  
S. A. Mitchell ◽  
N. Chan ◽  
E. Ang ◽  
W. Tam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Events ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Patient Reported Outcomes ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Cognitive Interviews ◽  
Simplified Chinese ◽  
Patient Reported ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Common ◽  
Response Choices

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to translate and linguistically validate the U.S. National Cancer Institute’s Patient-Reported Outcomes version of the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (PRO-CTCAE™) into Simplified Chinese for use in Singapore. Methods All 124 items of the English source PRO-CTCAE item library were translated into Simplified Chinese using internationally established translation procedures. Two rounds of cognitive interviews were conducted with 96 cancer patients undergoing adjuvant treatment to determine if the translations adequately captured the PRO-CTCAE source concepts, and to evaluate comprehension, clarity and ease of judgement. Interview probes addressed the 78 PRO-CTCAE symptom terms (e.g. fatigue), as well as the attributes (e.g. severity), response choices, and phrasing of ‘at its worst’. Items that met the a priori threshold of ≥20% of participants with comprehension difficulties were considered for rephrasing and retesting. Items where < 20% of the sample experienced comprehension difficulties were also considered for rephrasing if better phrasing options were available. Results A majority of PRO-CTCAE-Simplified Chinese items were well comprehended by participants in Round 1. One item posed difficulties in ≥20% and was revised. Two items presented difficulties in < 20% but were revised as there were preferred alternative phrasings. Twenty-four items presented difficulties in < 10% of respondents. Of these, eleven items were revised to an alternative preferred phrasing, four items were revised to include synonyms. Revised items were tested in Round 2 and demonstrated satisfactory comprehension. Conclusions PRO-CTCAE-Simplified Chinese has been successfully developed and linguistically validated in a sample of cancer patients residing in Singapore.

Social Response to Age-Gap Sex Involving Minors

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-125
Author(s):  
Bruce Rind
Keyword(s):  
Moral Panic ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Social Response ◽  
Contemporary Culture ◽  
Scarlet Letter ◽  
Socially Constructed ◽  
Age Gap ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trauma Response

Social response to age‐gap sex involving minors has become increasingly severe. In the US, non‐coercive acts that might have been punished with probation 30 years ago often lead to decades in prison today. Punishment also increasingly includes civil commitment up to life, as well as scarlet‐letter‐like public registries and onerous residence restrictions for released offenders. Advocates and the general public approve, believing that age‐gap sex with minors is uniquely injurious, pathological, and criminal. Critics argue that public opinion and policy have been shaped by moral panic, consisting of unfounded assumptions and invalid science being uncritically promoted by ideology, media sensationalism, and political pandering. This talk critically examines the basic assumptions and does so using a multi‐perspective approach (empirical, historical, cross‐cultural, cross‐species) to overcome the biases inherent in traditional clinical‐forensic reports. Non‐clinical empirical reviews of age‐gap sex involving minors show claims of intense, pervasive injuriousness to be highly exaggerated. Historical and cross‐cultural reviews show that adult‐adolescent sexual relations have been common and frequently socially integrated in other times and places, indicating that present‐day Western conceptualizations are socially constructed to reflect current social and economic arrangements rather than expressions of a priori truths. Analogous relations in primates are commonplace, non‐pathological, and not infrequently functional, contradicting implicit assumptions of a biologically‐based “trauma response” in humans. It is concluded that, though age‐gap sex involving minors is a significant mismatch for contemporary culture—and this talk therefore does not endorse it—attitudes and social policy concerning it have been driven by an upward‐spiraling moral panic, which itself is immoral in its excessive adverse consequences for individuals and society.

Flood estimation for ungauged catchments in the Philippines using multiple archival data records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trevor Hoey ◽  
Pamela Tolentino ◽  
Esmael Guardian ◽  
Richard Williams ◽  
Richard Boothroyd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Catchment Area ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Pearson Type ◽  
Flood Estimation ◽  
Best Fit

&lt;p&gt;Assessment of flood and drought risks, and changes to these risks under climate change, is a critical issue worldwide. Statistical methods are commonly used in data-rich regions to estimate the magnitudes of river floods of specified return period at ungauged sites. However, data availability can be a major constraint on reliable estimation of flood and drought magnitudes, particularly in the Global South. Statistical flood and drought magnitude estimation methods rely on the availability of sufficiently long data records from sites that are representative of the hydrological region of interest. In the Philippines, although over 1000 locations have been identified where flow records have been collected at some time, very few records exist of over 20 years duration and only a limited number of sites are currently being gauged. We collated data from three archival sources: (1) Division of Irrigation, Surface Water Supply (SWS) (1908-22; 257 sites in total); (2) Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (1955-91; 90 sites); and, (3) Bureau of Research and Standards (BRS) (1957-2018; 181 sites). From these data sets, 176 contained sufficiently long and high quality records to be analysed. Series of annual maximum floods were fit using L-moments with Weibull, Log-Pearson Type III and Generalised Logistic Distributions, the best-fit of these being used to estimate 2-, 10- and 100-year flood events, Q&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, Q&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; and Q&lt;sub&gt;100&lt;/sub&gt;. Predictive equations were developed using catchment area, several measures of annual and extreme precipitation, catchment geometry and land-use. Analysis took place nationally, and also for groups of hydrologically similar regions, based on similar flood growth curve shapes, across the Philippines. Overall, the best fit equations use a combination of two predictor variables, catchment area and the median annual maximum daily rainfall. The national equations have R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; of 0.55-0.65, being higher for shorter return periods, and regional groupings R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; are 0.60-0.77 for Q&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt;. These coefficients of determination, R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;, are lower than in some comprehensive studies worldwide reflecting in part the short individual flow records. Standard errors of residuals for the equations are between 0.19 and 0.51 (log&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; units), which lead to significant uncertainty in flood estimation for water resource and flood risk management purposes. Improving the predictions requires further analysis of hydrograph shape across the different climate types, defined by seasonal rainfall distributions, in the Philippines and between catchments of different size. The results here represent the most comprehensive study to date of flood magnitudes in the Philippines and are being incorporated into guidance for river managers alongside new assessments of river channel change across the country. The analysis illustrates the potential, and the limitations, for combining information from multiple data sources and short individual records to generate reliable estimates of flow extremes.&lt;/p&gt;

Aid for Vote? United Nations General Assembly Voting and American Aid Allocation

2017 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 1002-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byungwon Woo ◽  
Eunbin Chung
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
United Nations ◽  
A Priori ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Aid Allocation ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
United Nations General ◽  
The Us ◽  
United Nations General Assembly ◽  
The Cold War

How do political factors affect foreign aid allocation? Recognizing that aid can be used as inducement, we argue that the US has incentives to provide aid to countries who oppose it a priori at the United Nations General Assembly when it is the sole country that “buys votes” with aid, in order to maximize the number of favorable votes. When there is a rival country trying to buy votes, as was the case during the Cold War, there are incentives for the US to provide aid even to those who support its position already. We empirically demonstrate that the US provides more aid to countries who hold unfavorable positions to the US only in the post-Cold War era.

scholarly journals Influence of Precipitation Forcing Uncertainty on Hydrological Simulations with the NASA South Asia Land Data Assimilation System

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debjani Ghatak ◽  
Benjamin Zaitchik ◽  
Sujay Kumar ◽  
Mir A. Matin ◽  
Birendra Bajracharya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Land Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Data Assimilation System ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

: Accurate meteorological estimates are critical for process-based hydrological simulation and prediction. This presents a significant challenge in mountainous Asia where in situ meteorological stations are limited and major river basins cross international borders. In this context, remotely sensed and model-derived meteorological estimates are often necessary inputs for distributed hydrological analysis. However, these datasets are difficult to evaluate on account of limited access to ground data. In this case, the implications of uncertainty associated with precipitation forcing for hydrological simulations is explored by driving the South Asia Land Data Assimilation System (South Asia LDAS) using a range of meteorological forcing products. MERRA2, GDAS, and CHIRPS produce a wide range of estimates for rainfall, which causes a widespread simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration. A combination of satellite-derived and limited in situ data are applied to evaluate model simulations and, by extension, to constrain the estimates of precipitation. The results show that available gridded precipitation estimates based on in situ data may systematically underestimate precipitation in mountainous regions and that performance of gridded satellite-derived or modeled precipitation estimates varies systematically across the region. Since no station-based data or product including station data is satisfactory everywhere, our results suggest that the evaluation of the hydrological simulation of streamflow and ET can be used as an indirect evaluation of precipitation forcing based on ground-based products or in-situ data. South Asia LDAS produces reasonable evapotranspiration and streamflow when forced with appropriate meteorological forcing and the choice of meteorological forcing should be made based on the geographical location as well as on the purpose of the simulations.

THE NO FREE LUNCH THEOREM: BAD NEWS FOR (WHITE'S ACCOUNT OF) THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION

Episteme ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Gerhard Schurz
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Free Lunch ◽  
Event Sequences ◽  
A Priori Justification ◽  
No Free Lunch Theorem ◽  
Uniform Probability Distribution ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
No Free Lunch

AbstractWhite (2015) proposes an a priori justification of the reliability of inductive prediction methods based on his thesis of induction-friendliness. It asserts that there are by far more induction-friendly event sequences than induction-unfriendly event sequences. In this paper I contrast White's thesis with the famous no free lunch (NFL) theorem. I explain two versions of this theorem, the strong NFL theorem applying to binary and the weak NFL theorem applying to real-valued predictions. I show that both versions refute the thesis of induction-friendliness. In the conclusion I argue that an a priori justification of the reliability of induction based on a uniform probability distribution over possible event sequences is impossible. In the outlook I consider two alternative approaches: (i) justification externalism and (ii) optimality justifications.

The global entrepreneurship index as a benchmarking tool? Criticisms from an efficiency perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmundo Inacio Junior ◽  
Eduardo Avancci Dionisio ◽  
Bruno Brandão Fischer ◽  
Yanchao Li ◽  
Dirk Meissner
Keyword(s):  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Entrepreneurship ◽  
National Systems ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Entrepreneurial Dynamics

PurposeBased on an efficiency analysis of the Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI), the purpose was to demonstrate that the Key Performance Indicators’ analysis leads to a misinterpretation of the dynamics of National Systems of Entrepreneurship (NSEs). This might hamper the formulation of sound initiatives in other economies, with relevant implications for developing countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study categorized GEI indicators into output and input indicators. Following this procedure, each dimension was analyzed separately and then compared to each other, considering countries’ productivity rates. The main focus is given to the case of the US, the usual benchmark for NSEs and leader in the GEI Index. Lastly, a taxonomy of NSEs according to their efficiency levels was developed.FindingsThe findings of the analysis demonstrates that innovation-driven economies with lower positions in GEI ranking often have higher productivity rates when compared to economies with higher positions in GEI ranking. Specifically, the US appears not to be a good benchmark in terms of NSE efficiency.Research limitations/implicationsThe study’s approach is limited in scope by data availability on NSEs and the use of GEI, a representation of aggregate patterns of country-level entrepreneurial dynamics. More refined data are needed in order to clarify some insights from this research.Practical implicationsThe perception of systemic efficiency should be considered more thoroughly when designing dedicated entrepreneurship-oriented policies in other countries that aim at establishing a more vibrant entrepreneurial system while facing resource constraints.Social implicationsSimplistic views of systemic aspects may hamper the formulation of sound entrepreneurship-oriented initiatives with particularly relevant implications for public policy in laggard economies.Originality/valueThe value of this article relies on applied a simple metric – efficiency ratio – order than, e.g. data envelopment analysis to portray a key issue related to the interpretation of supranational rankings related to the entrepreneurship ecosystem make mainly by policymakers and scholars that is: pick the 1st one, follow the leader.

scholarly journals Classification of Landslide Activity on a Regional Scale Using Persistent Scatterer Interferometry at the Moselle Valley (Germany)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Kalia
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Persistent Scatterer Interferometry ◽  
Landslide Activity ◽  
Persistent Scatterer ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Sar Data

Landslides are a major natural hazard which can cause significant damage, economic loss, and loss of life. Between the years of 2004 and 2016, 55,997 fatalities caused by landslides were reported worldwide. Up-to-date, reliable, and comprehensive landslide inventories are mandatory for optimized disaster risk reduction (DRR). Various stakeholders recognize the potential of Earth observation techniques for an optimized DRR, and one example of this is the Sendai Framework for DRR, 2015–2030. Some of the major benefits of spaceborne interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) techniques, compared to terrestrial techniques, are the large spatial coverage, high temporal resolution, and cost effectiveness. Nevertheless, SAR data availability is a precondition for its operational use. From this perspective, Copernicus Sentinel-1 is a game changer, ensuring SAR data availability for almost the entire world, at least until 2030. This paper focuses on a Sentinel-1-based Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) post-processing workflow to classify landslide activity on a regional scale, to update existing landslide inventories a priori. Before classification, a Line-of-Sight (LOS) velocity conversion to slope velocity and a cluster analysis was performed. Afterwards, the classification was achieved by applying a fixed velocity threshold. The results are verified through the Global Positioning System (GPS) survey and a landslide hazard indication map.

Immanuel Kant on the philosophy of communicology: The tropic logic of rhetoric and semiotics

Semiotica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (227) ◽  
pp. 273-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard L. Lanigan
Keyword(s):  
Immanuel Kant ◽  
A Priori ◽  
History Of Rhetoric ◽  
Critique Of Pure Reason ◽  
Critique Of Judgment ◽  
Ethical Guidelines ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Us ◽  
Phenomenological Methodology ◽  
History Of

AbstractThe article consists of a brief biographical account of Immanuel Kant’s life and career, followed by a discussion of his basic philosophy, and a brief discussion of his pivotal point in the history of Rhetoric and Communicology. A major figure in the European Enlightenment period of Philosophy, hisCollected Writingswere first published in 1900 constituting 29 volumes. He wrote three major works that are foundational to the development of Western philosophy and the human sciences. Often just referred to as the “ThreeCritiques” informally, the First, the Second, and the Third. These are respectively:The Critique of Pure Reasonfocused on issues in logic, The Critique of Practical Reasonrelating ethical guidelines, andThe Critique of Judgmentexploring issues of aesthetics. He is most famous for his philosophy of transcendental idealism. This version of idealism argues that in logic statements areanalytic(subject and predicate are the same; no new information) orsynthetic(predicate differs from the subject; new information is constituted). He further argues that statements area priori(before experience) ora posteriori(a result of experience). Models of rhetoric (tropic logic), phenomenological methodology, and the contemporary Perspectives Model of interpersonal communicology are included as the Kantian legacy in the US. Notes provide a guide to edition and philological issues in the Kantian corpus, especially for the hermeneutics ofVorstellung(‘presentation’) versusDarstellung(‘representation’).

Evaluation of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Littoral Initiative Model Based on the Observed Temperature and Salinity in the Mississippi Bight

2005 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadya Vinogradova ◽  
Sergey Vinogradov ◽  
Dmitri Nechaev ◽  
Vladimir Kamenkovich ◽  
Alan F. Blumberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Numerical Procedure ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Horizontal Gradient ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Northern Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Data Comparison

Temperature and salinity measurements from the Northern Gulf of Mexico Littoral Initiative (NGLI) survey during August 30 - September 14, 2000 reveal a high level of temporal and spatial variability in the Mississippi Bight. To support scientific studies using a numerical model, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (ECOM) is implemented in the Mississippi Bight. The ECOM is run with realistic topography, stratification and meteorological forcing to hindcast circulation on a shallow and highly variable shelf of the Mississippi Bight. The results of the model are compared with observation to evaluate the ECOM performance on different temporal scales. Based on the area oceanography and data availability, three temporal scales are chosen for model/data comparison: fine scale (less than an hour), diurnal, and large scale (a two-week period). Limitations of the ECOM application on each scale are discussed. The model is capable to reproduce observed water masses, describe spatial distribution of water properties, and simulate areas with high horizontal gradient such as freshwater plumes. However, delayed response to meteorological forcing, overestimated mixing rates and uncertainties in computation of river discharges result in statistically significant bias in the simulations. Along with traditional linear correlations from all observational points and spectral analysis over the diurnal cycle, a new technique of model validation is introduced. The technique is a new application of an existing variational interpolation method. Detailed description of the method and numerical procedure allow one to apply this technique to any oceanographic data with prescribed data variances for model/data comparison.

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